Coming Soon: The Championship

We beat Rotherham 3-1, Forest only drew with Crewe - they finished fourth after Blackpool smashed Swansea 6-3 at the Liberty Stadium.

So...we're up. We're in the Championship next season. We did it! Cue Jeff Stelling!



Much more later, but my Friday post was almost ridiculously spot on:

'Three of the four goals Rotherham have scored in their last eight games came in the first 20 minutes, including two in the first ten minutes. If Rotherham are going to score, it'll be early on (ie before ten minutes) or - and this is a particular City weakness in the last eight games - just before half time (three of the six goals conceded at home in the last eight games have been in this period). If Rotherham don't score early on, the chances are that they won't score at all.'

Not quite accurate - Rotherham got their goal in the 58th minute. Now for the spooky bit... If the patterns within Rotherham's away form and City's home form occur tomorrow, City should probably be a goal up half way through the first half (first fifteen minutes seems like a good time), with the possibility of a second before the end of the half. It then becomes more likely that there might be a third before the hour.

David Noble scored in the eighth and 44th minutes. Alex Russell got the third in the 55th minute. Not only was I excited about the way the game was going anyway, I also couldn't believe just how well it went to form.

Of course, the other prediction that was easier to make but still pretty accurate was the one where after the game I meet a couple of mates outside Quba Ice on North Street, drink a lot of San Miguel and sing songs.

Quba Ice before the game and before the urban bullfighting with cars and buses that took place later.

There will be more to come...but here's a really good photomontage of a very memorable season to enjoy.

Nearly there...still...

OK, we lost at Millwall and Forest won. So here's the deal:

We beat Rotherham tomorrow and we're up. Forest have to play Crewe at home in what will be Dario Gradi's last game as Crewe manager.

Beat Forest and you'll never need to pay for anything in Bristol again.

But here's the interesting one: there always seems to be one team that comes from absolutely nowhere and this season it's Blackpool. If both City and Forest lose tomorrow, they'll go up.

Here's some stats to mull over:

City v Rotherham

Over the last eight homes, City's record is:

P8 (LOL!) W4 D2 L2 F10 A7 Pts 14

City failed to score twice in those games, against Swansea and Cheltenham. We've kept cleans sheets in half of our last eight home games as well, which is a stat that isn't being as emphasised as it should be. Going back over all 22 home league games this season, our scoring pattern looks like this:

Goals scored:
0 three times - two draws and a defeat
1 - nine times
2 - seven times, most recently in the win over Yeovil
3 - three times - three wins, although the last time we scored three goals at home was in January.

I won't bore you with the details, but the pattern over last eight games looks remarkably similar to that.

In contrast, Rotherham's last eight aways go like this:

W1 D2 L5 F4 A10 Pts 5.

They've failed to score in five of their last eight away games, the last time anyone failed to score against them was when they won at Brentford in March. Their last away clean sheet before that was against Brighton in February, but having seen Brighton in February, that doesn't surprise me.

So trying to be as objective as possible (once again), Rotherham 0 is not entirely out of the question.

So it looks like 1-0 (6/1 at William Hill) or 2-0 (5/1) would probably be realistic. Which would - of course - be enough.

Key points

Three of the four goals Rotherham have scored in their last eight games came in the first 20 minutes, including two in the first ten minutes. If Rotherham are going to score, it'll be early on (ie before ten minutes) or - and this is a particular City weakness in the last eight games - just before half time (three of the six goals conceded at home in the last eight games have been in this period). If Rotherham don't score early on, the chances are that they won't score at all.

If the patterns within Rotherham's away form and City's home form occur tomorrow, City should probably be a goal up half way through the first half (first fifteen minutes seems like a good time), with the possibility of a second before the end of the half. It then becomes more likely that there might be a third before the hour.

So...City need to score early and make sure they don't let Rotherham back in the game before half time.

In other news...


Leeds United will be playing in the third tier of English Football for the first time EVER...which is still frankly astonishing, especially as their decline was so dramatic. The Times has a brief timeline of how it all happened.

The 'All English' Champions League Final will have to wait another day. Not bothered about who wins in Athens in a couple of weeks although I'd pay to see Gennaro Gattuso and Craig Bellamy have a pop at each other.

You just know that Gattuso would have had something to say if necessary.

Don't you just know that Gennaro and Craig were meant for each other...

I'm going to have to change my desktop wallpaper, as Randy Moss was traded to the Patriots on Sunday. I can't bring myself to wish him good luck, so I hope it ends really badly for him.

If you clicked on the link above, you'd also have read that Troy Smith ended up being taken by the Ravens in the fifth round. Well fancy that. I didn't think that he looked anything like a first rounder and I said so:

'I can't remember which one of the ABC/ESPN commentary team (Brent Musberger, Bob Davie and Kirk Herbstreit) was raving about Smith being a first round draft pick now, but it strikes me that this is an extremely premature assessment. There's no doubting that he has the ability, but as I mentioned above, he will need work on handling pressure situations and there are accuracy and consistency issues. He was outstanding in the first half of the game, but dropped off dramatically in the second.'

Madame Zaza, top pro prospect evaluator.

I have no idea what to do with my Randy Moss replica jersey now...perhaps I'll order a brand new JaMarcus Russell one.

The Oakland pick that I'm really intrigued by is that of Michael Bush of Louisville in the fourth round (incidentally, the round that formed part of the Moss trade); way back in November I wished him good luck after he broke his leg in the game against Kentucky. Now almost six months later he's a Raider.

There will be more. There always is.

Nearly there...

First of all, RIP Alan Ball (1945 - 2007)

Another one of the players I grew up with as a kid in the 1970s passes away: Alan Ball was up there with George Best, Bobby Moore and Billy Bremner. If you get a chance to see the 1966 World Cup Final, watch him - red number 7 jersey. That's what managers mean when they talk about 'having a good engine' and 'work rate'.

Now on to the sublime and the ridiculous. This may be the only blog in the e-niverse that features JaMarcus Russell, Tony Blackburn...and The Wurzels apparently playing some sort of demented ska version of 'I Am A Cider Drinker'. You have been warned.

A simple, yet stark truth to today's proceedings:

A win at Millwall will mean City are up with a game left. Unbelievably, there's a scenario where City could lose and still get promoted...see below.

It's difficult to keep focused on the implications of this, so here are some cold hard facts. Millwall can't make the playoffs now, despite a reasonably impressive run of form which saw them lose only three of their last games and beating Swansea and Nottingham Forest at home. However, they fell on their arses last week after Huddersfield Town beat them 4-2.

I don't imagine for one minute that Millwall won't be up for this, it's their last home game of the season and they'll be relishing the spoiler role.

Here's the scenarios:

City and Forest win: City up
City win, Forest draw: City up
City win, Forest lose: City up
City draw, Forest draw: City up
City draw, Forest lose: City up
City lose, Forest lose: City up

City draw, Forest win: goes to last day
City lose, Forest win: goes to last day
City lose, Forest draw: goes to last day

Not bad. Six of nine possible outcomes are positive.

And I'll be at Ashton Gate today anyway: I'm going to watch Bristol play Gloucester at Rugby. I wasn't quick enough to organise Millwall tickets and I don't want to go to Whitchurch Sports Centre to watch the live beamback. I'll be watching a different game, but I'll be outside and I'll be able to buy beer.

And as the sun begins to set on another football season, the sun begins to rise on another NFL season: the draft begins today although it looks as if NASN won't be carrying it over here...probably a good thing as after the first ten picks it gets a bit dull.

So who's going to be wearing Silver and Black next season: JaMarcus Russell or Calvin Johnson? I'll take either...both would be nice ;-)


JaMarcus Russell:


Calvin Johnson:


DEFINITELY more to come today, although it might be a little...unfocused, regardless of whatever happens.

Madame Zaza gets it right

There's only one automatic place left: congratulations to Scunthorpe United on winning promotion.

At one point this afternoon, it looked likely that City might only have to take two points from the last three games to join them, but Forest came back from two goals down to beat Brentford, so things haven't changed much as City beat Yeovil 2-0. The winner was a penalty from Bradley Orr that Steve Mildenhall almost saved; to say there was a lack of confidence in Orr's ability to convert it would be an understatement...the blokes in front of me turned away. It hit Mildenhall and crept underneath him.

Adriano Basso also made one of the most amazing saves I've ever seen this afternoon. More later. It was so good, time seemed to be suspended as he floated in the air after the catch.

That good.

But I digress. We're four points ahead of Forest with nine points left to play for. To put it as plainly as possible, if City win at Carlisle and Forest lose at home to Bournemouth...well, what are the chances of that happening?

If the season ended today:

Scunthorpe: champions. I think that's a given now. It doesn't matter.
City: automatic promotion.

Play offs: Oldham v Forest, Yeovil v Blackpool. You want spoiler material: Carlisle are a point off the playoffs and Blackpool are on one of those great late season surges of form (four straight wins) that take teams from mid table into the division above.

Still, our destiny is still in our hands, just the way I want it to be.

Oh yeah, we're two weeks into the baseball season in the USA: more of that to come later.

Not for the faint hearted

City drew. Millwall beat Forest. Scunthorpe lost.

Then on Easter Monday it all changed again: City lost.

Situation today: we simply CANNOT afford to lose any more games. We've got Yeovil this afternoon - if we lose and Forest beat already relegated Brentford we're still ahead of Forest by one point, but Yeovil would be three points behind us with three games left to play. Here's some objectivity for you (a very scarce commodity round here at the moment): having mentioned a couple of posts ago that Yeovil's away record against the top six is not that good, they've recently lost to Scunny and Oldham away and Blackpool at home. William Hill has a City win at 8/11, 12/5 the draw and 3/1 Yeovil win.

If Scunthorpe beat Huddersfield, they're up. Similar kind of odds for Scunny as City have.

Forest need to beat Brentford, but there are injury problems for both sides.

Madame Zaza predicts: congratulations to Scunthorpe United for reaching the top half of the league since 1964.

And I will curse the day that smoking and standing were outlawed at Ashton Gate. If there was ever a day for both, it's today. I will report back later.

...it's so close it's almost unbearable.

Here's the situation today...

We have six games left to play and are currently in second place, four points ahead of Nottingham Forest, who we drew with last week. There's a four point gap between Forest and Oldham, so there's an eight point gap between City and Oldham.

Scunthorpe are seven points clear at the top having beaten Yeovil yesterday.

Today we're playing Swansea, who are four points off the last play off place.

If the season finished today:

Scunthorpe - champions
City - automatic promotion

First round of the playoffs:

Blackpool v Forest
Yeovil v Oldham

(Winners to meet in the final at The New Wembley, which is now finished and open for business.)

The only games that matter today: City v Swansea and Millwall v Nottingham Forest.

Best case scenario: City win and Forest lose. Instant seven point gap with four games left.

Worst case scenario: City lose and Forest win. One point gap with four games left.

According to William Hill, City are favourites to win, but it's far less clear in SE London. The draw (12/5) looks good value, but I'm almost tempted to bet on Forest at 13/10.

There are 45 minutes to go before kick off and I am really nervous.

There'll be a big update, probably either on Sunday or Monday...

Catch Up

I am not well, but I am feeling much better now because Manyoo beat Liverpoo 1-0 (with ten men and an injury time goal) and Kevin 'Heavens to' Betsy has LITERALLY just scored City's first goal against Northampton Town.

I've been to Brighton to see City win away, we're currently doing well in the league although we crashed out of the JPT to The Blue Team which is a shame as my sister in law was due to get married the day before the final in Cardiff, so we wouldn't have had to have gone very far.

Lots of player movement in the NFL - I can't remember what was happening on Friday, but it was the first wave of Free Agent nonsense. The only activity concerning the Raiders was that OT Langston Walker has signed by the Buffalo Bills and it looks very much as if Jeff Garcia will not being joining the Raiders...meaning that it looks increasingly likely that JaMarcus Russell will be the quarterback of the future, especially as Aaron Brooks was cut on February 22nd. There are also rumours on the interwebnet about Randy Moss going to the Packers, which would be something of a turn up considering what happened there a few years ago...but let's be honest here, after last season anything and anyone on the offense would be better. Given Coach Kiffin's USC connections, it's unlikely Brady Quinn is going to be a Raider (he might be the new David Carr though); Troy Smith certainly won't be. The draft is right at the end of April.

So far there haven't been a great deal of FA moves, but the 49ers have made some interesting signings on defense and I'm immediately wondering if I'll return to them in the months to comel the Patriots are restocking too, which should set the alarm bells off around the league.

Other coaching changes (other than the boy wonder that is):

Ken Whisenhunt (ex-OC with the Steelers) replaces Denny Green in Arizona
Bobby Petrino (ex-Louisville) replaces Jim Mora Jr in Atlanta
Wade Phillips replaces Bill Parcells in Dallas (this looks dodgy already)
Cam Cameron replaces Nick Saban in Miami, Saban being the latest Bear Bryant replacement at Alabama
Mike Tomlin replaces Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh
Norv Turner replaces Marty Schottenheimer in San Diego (snort, giggle...Norv Turner? Are you kidding me?)

My extremely early take on this: Arizona and Atlanta will benefit the most.

The college football season has been over for so long that spring practices have already started (Tennessee stated on 22nd Feb!), but there will be some intriguing issues going into 2007. Todd Boeckman will probably be tOSU's starting quarterback but at Notre Dame things are confusing, with four players in the frame including highly touted freshman Jimmy Clausen. Darren McFadden (Arkansas) is already being touted for the Heisman, but there have been some interesting times down there during the offseason; my long range punt would be Tim Tebow of Florida. He's going to be a Sunday afternoon Monster one day, it's a shame it won't be for at least another couple of years.

You want a super-deep sleeper? Here's your man: Alex Brink of Washington State.

50/28 TD/INT ratio plus 7095 career yards. Plays on a 6-6 team though.

Right, returning to football that's still going on, here's how the top six head to head in Division 3 table now looks:

Tranmere P9 W4 D3 L2 F10 A7 Pts 15
Oldham P9 W4 D2 L3 F10 A6 Pts 14
Scunthorpe P7 W3 D2 L2 F9 A6 Pts 11
Forest P8 W3 D2 L3 F4 A12 Pts 11
City P8 W3 D1 L4 F8 A7 Pts 10
Yeovil P7 W2 D0 L5 F3 A9 Pts 6

City's position first: only have two games left against the current top six, at home to Forest and Yeovil. As luck would have it, both those teams have to travel to Scunthorpe as well and neither of them have home games left against the other teams in the top six.

As you can see from the mini table, neither Forest nor Oldham have been a real powerhouse against the other sides this season - Yeovil also have to travel to Oldham.

So here's one scenario: Scunny have a ten point lead with ten or so games left is actually favourable. If they can beat Forest and Yeovil they will be doing us a massive favour: if we can beat Forest and Yeovil...

Just to make it even more confusing, here's a table with results against the bottom six teams factored in:

Scunthorpe P18 W10 D5 L3 F23 A11 Pts 35
Tranmere P19 W8 D6 L5 F22 A17 Pts 30
Oldham P17 W9 D2 L6 F26 A17 Pts 29
Forest P15 W7 D4 L4 F17 A 19 Pts 25
Yeovil P15 W6 D3 L6 F14 A14 Pts 21
City P16 W5 D5 L6 F19 A17 Pts 20

So why on earth are we third in the table now?

Here is a revised fixture list, taking into account top six v. themselves and top six v. bottom six as it stands right now.

10th March: City v Brentford, Cheltenham v Yeovil, Scunthorpe v Nottingham Forest

Tuesday 13th March: City v Bradford

24th March: Nottingham Forest v Cheltenham, Yeovil v Chesterfield

Sunday 25th March: Brentford v Oldham

31st March: City v Forest, Oldham v Yeovil, Scunthorpe v Bradford

Friday 6th April: Scunthorpe v Yeovil (is this on Sky?)

Monday 9th April: Bradford v Oldham, Nottingham Forest v Rotherham

14th April: City v Yeovil, Brentford v Nottingham Forest, Oldham v Cheltenham

21st April: Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth, Yeovil v Rotherham

5th May: City v Rotherham, Oldham v Chesterfield, Tranmere v Brentford

So right off the bat, there are four weekends with three matches that are going to be crucial. Next weekend, the weekend my sister in law gets married, the weekend after Easter and the last game of the season.

Incredibly, I will be away from home on three of those weekends, including the last game of the season, when I will be in Cardiff to watch Superleague.

How I think it's going to pan out

We need to take maximum points from our four remaining games against the teams in the bottom six: three of them come in the next week and a half and the last one - against Rotherham on the last day of the season - might be absolutely crucial.

THIS IS AN ADVANTAGE THAT WE CANNOT AFFORD TO SQUANDER.

Best case scenario:

Winning the division is not out of the question, but it would take a collapse by Scunthorpe to do it*. Automatic promotion is still attainable, but every game is now a must win: there are still 36 points to play for and if we can pick up more than 20 then we can do it. Our destiny is in our own hands and we must make sure it stays that way; promotion before the last game of the season must be the aim.

Worst case scenario:

Out of the playoffs on the last day.

Wildcard Team and Biggest Threat:

Brentford and Oldham.

If the season ended today:

Playoffs v Tranmere, the winner to play the winner of Yeovil v Oldham in Cardiff.

* Madame Zaza moment: if Scunthorpe have to sell Billy Sharp in the summer or at any point next season, they'll go straight back down. Of course, they may have to deal with the Bob Taylor scenario, which is what finished us off in 1990.

MSK goes deep undercover

If you think the referees in the World Wrestling Federation are bad...

I have just returned from one of my rare undercover missions...the last one was at St Andrews on 1998, this one was at the Withdean Stadium in Brighton and was considerably less fraught.

More later, but it's always illuminating to sit with the opposition to see what your team is really like, especially when Mr Mike Riley is the referee.

Oh and when Baz Savage plays for the opposition and seems to be a fan favourite. Brighton isn't a football town.

It'll be 100 years in 2009

Since City reached the Cup Final; and it's a record that won't be broken this season either. We're out: we lost on penalties to a very ordinary Middlesbrough side who will now face WBA on Saturday. We travel to Blackpool, who also got knocked this evening by Norwich.

Madame Zaza predicts: Middlesbrough won't win the FA Cup. In a bizarre Zaza-esque moment (bizazarre?) I put a couple of quid on Mark Viduka scoring the first goal tonight at 4/1: I got my stake back as he was somewhat hilariously listed as a non-runner.

Oh Bloody Hell

Basso sent off, some twat takes a swing at Bradley Orr and we get a totally undeserved point against a decent team that tried to kill us off after we'd let them go ahead and we went down to ten men. For 80 odd minutes I was wishing that this was all over and baseball had started.

Still, Middlesbrough lost 3-0 to Chelsea, which made up for Madame Zaza's complete failure this afternoon. Bad Madame Zaza.

City Welcome Former Triple League Champions...

...Huddersfield Town.

Herbert Chapman - the Knute Rockne of English Association Football.*

Here's the top of Division Three:

1. Scunthorpe P31 Pts 58
2. Oldham P30 Pts 55
3. Forest P30 Pts 53
4. City P30 Pts 52
5. Yeovil P30 Pts 51
6. Swansea P30 Pts 47
...and todays opponents:

11. Huddersfield P31 Pts 41 (six off the playoffs)

We've actually dropped six points in the last two games, both single goal defeats at home to Cheltenham Town and away to Scunthorpe United (on live TV) but nobody seems to have made the decisive move yet.

Here's the top six mini league:

Oldham P8 W4 D2 L2 F10 A5 Pts 14
Forest P8 W4 D1 L3 F6 A12 Pts 13
Scunthorpe P7 W3 D2 L2 F10 A5 Pts 11
City P7 W2 D2 L3 F5 A5 Pts 8
Yeovil P6 W2 D1 L3 F4 A6 Pts 7
Swansea P6 W0 D4 L2 F3 A7 Pts 4

Remaining Games:

Today:
Swansea v Oldham

20th February
Swansea v Scunthorpe

24th February
Yeovil v Swansea

10th March
Scunthorpe v Nottingham Forest

31st March
City v Nottingham Forest
Oldham v Yeovil
6th April
Scunthorpe v Yeovil

7th April
City v Swansea

14th April
City v Yeovil

So basically City's entire season will probably come down to three consecutive home games against opponents currently in the top six. The good news is that we've completed our away programme against them (a win, a draw and three defeats) and we have the most home games left against the other five teams.

And I'll be missing the Forest game because one of my sisters in law is getting married on March 31st - in CARDIFF - but I will be making the trip down to Brighton on 24th February courtesy of my brother in law Phil.

Here are the previews:

City v Huddersfield

City haven't won at home in the league since coming from behind to beat Tranmere 3-2 on January 13th, but to put that into some kind of context we've only had one home league game since then (last Wednesday v Cheltenham) and two cup games (Middlesbrough in the FA Cup and Brighton in the JPT). Our form in the last six homes is four wins, a draw and a defeat, nine for and six against.

The Town Terriers have won once, drawn twice and lost three times in their last six league aways, scoring three times and letting in eight. Not particularly good; Madame Zaza thinks it's a City home win - possibly by two goals - and City will take the lead!

Swansea v Oldham

A draw at 11/5 with William Hill.

I'm off down the Gate, good shooting!

* Wow...that never occured to me before, but it's a good comparison. I must investigate!

Colts Win The Superbowl

Peyton Manning: MVP.

Despite an electrifying opening kickoff return for a touchdown by Devin Hester, the Indianapolis Colts won Superbowl 41 by 29-17 in Miami last night. The score was arguably a reflection of the difference between the two teams, but a closer look at the numbers shows that there's a case to be made for the argument that the 'big win for the Colts' scenario was achievable.

On Thursday I questioned Rex Grossman's ability as a quarterback and my opinion not only seems to have been justified, but one of my favourite sportswriters also though it. To recap, here are his 2006 stats before the big game:

Regular Season:
262 for 480 (54%) for 3193 yards, 23 TDs and 20 INTs for a rating of 73.9

Post Season:
32 for 64 (50%) for 426 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INTs for a rating of 75.4

Now here's the line for Superbowl XLI:

20 of 28 (71%) for 165 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTS for a rating of 68.3. Remember, five of those completions were made with less than two minutes left at the end of the game when the result wasn't in doubt: he basically played at a level below both his regular season and post season performances - Joey Harrington and Jake Plummer territory in fact.

Again, the emphasis must be on team rather than individual performance, but it should be blindingly obvious to the Bears coaching staff that the one area which was a let down was passing offense. Grossman either needs to improve or Lovie Smith needs to find a new quarterback.

Run/Pass Ratios Revisited

Counting the rushing attempts by Manning and Dallas Clark (the first was a scramble, the second one looked like some sort of college option from Manning's days in the SEC), Indy ran 42 times and passed 38 times, a 52/48 ratio that had more in common with their regular season ratio when they were a far more balanced team offensively.

I deliberately made a note of the first fifteen plays for each team to see what - if any - pattern I could discern. The Colts passed on 9 of their first fifteen plays (60%) whereas the Bears had a 60/40 run/pass ratio - nine of their game total of 19 rushing attempts came in the first fifteen plays. On the day, the Bears run/pass ratio was 40/60; during the regular season it had been almost exactly 50/50.

It's probably too early to tell exactly how this affected both teams, but it looks very much as if the Colts returned to the style of play that got them to the Superbowl in the first place whereas the Bears sideline may - may - have panicked and decided to push the envelope with a player who is not known for that. I've been listening to ESPN radio this morning (Ron Jaworski has just referred to a 'positive play count' which is basically number of rushes plus completions - the higher the better, 50 is some kind of gold standard) and the Chicago coaches are not being lauded for their playcalling. I'll check out WSCR-AM later.

Last scoring play of the game: a interception return for a touchdown by Indy reserve defensive back Kelvin Hayden, who went to Illinois and grew up in Chicago.

Sometimes it's just not your day.

Rex Grossman endears himself to the media

WSCR 670 The Score is currently commenting on the Jim McMahonesque stunt today that Rex Grossman pulled today: addressing the American media about '...how ignorant some of you guys are' (love to know who was laughing in the background!)

Apparently it's all about selling newspapers. Grossman is all about playing quarterback, so let's see how he shaped up:

Regular Season:
262 for 480 (54%) for 3193 yards, 23 TDs and 20 INTs for a rating of 73.9

Post Season:
32 for 64 (50%) for 426 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INTs for a rating of 75.4

This puts him in the same territory as Alex Smith and Matt Leinart (better ratings) plus Brett Favre and Charlie Frye (worse ratings). It may or may not be significant, but none of those players played for teams with winning records this season.

Here's Jim McMahon's stats for the '85 regular season:

178 for 313 (56.8%) for 2392 yards, 15 TDs and 11 INTs for a rating of 82.6, 10% better than Grossman this season and at the same kind of level as Chad Pennington, Steve McNair and Jake Delhomme in 2006. None of those three had a losing season; the Jets and the Ravens made the playoffs.

Here's a stat for y'all: over the last ten years, the average regular season rating for winning Superbowl QBs has been 91.8. Here are some players from 2006 that scored above that - Drew Brees, Damon Huard, Marc Bulger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb...and Peyton Manning.

OK, football is a team game and the result will not hinge on the performance of one player, but all things being equal it's obvious that Manning is a better quarterback than Grossman and I'd even go as far to say that Chicago has got this far despite Rex Grossman rather than because of him.

Another way of looking at both QB productivity is OL strength. I don't have the time or the resources to come up with a Football Outsiders style analysis but I do have a modified version of their OL stats that I use for the analysing OL performance in the EFL.

The Colts gave up the fewest sacks in the entire league during the regular season (15), but have already given up a third of this total in three post season games. Although the Bears have been inferior in this respect, they've actually been more consistent throughout (25 sacks given up in the regular season) and there's nothing much between them on average yards per rushing attempt; one possible reason for the difference between regular and post season sacks is that Indy have a 47/53 run/pass ratio in the post season as opposed to 56/44 ratio in the regular season - basically, Manning has had to pass more, so realistically the amount of sacks should increase.

Madame Zaza wants to interrupt again: if the Colts can get back to a more balanced offensive approach on Sunday, it might be the crucial difference. If Indy can establish the run early then Manning can run the offense that got them to the big show; if 'Bad Rex' turns up and all the Bears can do is run, then it could be a long afternoon for Chicago fans.

All I'm saying is that there is an 'Indianapolis winning a blow out' scenario.

Superbowl Week: Monday

OK, straight to the point: head says Colts, heart says Bears.

For a while now, I think that Peyton Manning has been the best passing quarterback in the league and he has the supporting cast that could potentially make this a blowout if Ron Rivera's defensive scheme doesn't work. The knock against Indianapolis earlier in the season was that they couldn't stop the run but they have been unrecognisable recently and this is why head is going with them.

Heart is going for the Bears for a number of reasons. The first pro football game I ever saw live was the 1986 American Bowl at Wembley Stadium, at the beginning of the season following the triumph of Superbowl XX. So I saw Walter Payton, Jim McMahon, The Fridge and all the other luminaries on arguably one of the most complete football teams I think I've ever seen. This season I've had more fun following the Bears than the Raiders, but whereas the Raiders are an obligation the Bears have always been a way of enjoying the NFL without screaming blue murder at the TV.

In a lot of ways, the game is Old School as well. Until the re-organisation of the NFL in 1969, both the Colts and the Bears were in the NFC and the Colts were the first team to represent both conferences in the Superbowl: they lost to the Joe Namath inspired NY Jets in SB3 and beat Dallas in SB5 (in Miami when the Colts wore white!) with a Jim O'Brien field goal with five seconds left.

Madame Zaza time: will I be publishing a photo of Adam Viniateri doing something similar to this on Monday morning?


It's all very well considering the past, but here are some threads leading up to the game that are of interest.

Hardly surprisingly considering what happened to the team in 1984, the city of Baltimore isn't supporting the Colts. Neither are these old Baltimore Colt alums, but they seem to like Peyton Manning. This story is really sad; John Mackey was one of the pioneers at the Tight End position at roughly the same time Mike Ditka had a similar role with the Bears and Cowboys.

John Mackey

Mike Ditka

I stumbled across a fantastic Bears website at bearshistory.com while I was looking for bits and pieces to post here on youtube.

Having said that, I haven't seen any stories about Colt fans that travel the 500 or so mile trip to Indy to support the team rather than staying in Maryland to support either the Ravens or the Redskins. It's about the same distance from Oakland to Los Angeles as it is between Bristol and Glasgow; seeing as though I now seem to be locked into this, Chicago to Indianapolis is less than 200 miles.

Enough rambling.

Another World

At 3:45pm on Saturday, I was convincing myself that although progress in the FA Cup was a bonus, the bread and butter was getting promotion. City were 2-0 down at half time to Middlesbrough.

Just over an hour later, we were still in it. Two goals in six minutes, one of which was so sublime that the BBC have included it here. Last night, our game was featured on 'Match Of The Day'; at the end - over the credits and the music which will be forever associated with going to bed - was Scott Murray running towards the East End after scoring and then Gary Johnson applauding the fans in the Atyeo Stand when he left the pitch.

And yes, I was singing when Scott scored.

Here then, is a glimpse of another world. City are on 'Match Of The Day', Ashton Gate is full and there's a fight back that will be talked about for years.



And to finish off, here's LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell making a big play against Ole Miss. All may be revealed in New York City in April.

Instant Roundup

Middlesbrough at home at 3:00pm in the fourth round of the FA Cup! The ticket situation has been ridiculous but I should have expected that. The Johnstone's Paint Trophy is also within striking distance after a 2-0 win over Brighton on Tuesday. Not only that, the point gap has been overcome at the top of Division 3 where City are now second on goal difference.

Colts v Bears in the Superbowl next weekend. Referring back to this post, it's now definitely Peyton Manning.


Cut that meat! Cut that meat!

The Raiders have a new coach. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Lane Kiffin.

Florida beat Ohio State to win the National Championship. Here's your standard game highlight clip with obligatory rock soundtrack:



Whereas this is a really good photo essay:



There are some names on that list that will be playing on Sundays. The scary thing about Florida: Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow are still young.

Troy Smith isn't exactly wowing the pro scouts, I will endeavour to find out what Mel Kiper thinks...

'I think my hair isn't bouffant enough in this picture.'

I've started ranking pitchers for the fantasy baseball league I play in, so winter is all but over. But before it's time to check the scores of West Coast games in progress when I wake up in Britain, there are a few things left to sort out. I'll put some Superbowl thoughts together and attempt some kind of recap over the stuff I've posted so far but now it's pretty much over to the rest of the football season.

So from March 1962, here's some film of City getting stuffed 5-0 by Portsmouth at Fratton Park. The footage isn't great...but the song is. Enjoy it!


'Oh I do like to see a game of football/When Saturday afternoon comes round...'

All you can ever want

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!

Coventry 0, City 2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The NFL is coming to London!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Two out of three ain’t bad

Well, ‘Jimmy’ got 66% of his predictions correct: City drew with Orient (after having gone behind again) and Scunny drew with Port Vale, but he got Old Ham v Forest very wrong indeed.

Old Ham won 5-0 and Forest finished with nine men. Still, I trusted ‘Jimmy’, had a flutter and won back more than I spent so I’m not complaining. The results leave City in no man’s land between the playoff contenders and the automatic promotion spots.

We’ve been here before and will be here again. I’m trying to remain positive but I’m having occasional flashbacks...

Elsewhere, something mildly surprising happened: Paul LeGuen left Glasgow Rangers by mutual consent - presumably as opposed to being forced into it by a dose of Rohypnol or several pints of ‘heavy’ and a deep fried Mars Bar. Talking of the old heave ho tin tack treatment, the following NFL coaches have fallen on their swords: Denny Green (Arizona) to no-one’s surprise and Jim Mora (Atlanta) in what seems to be a joint effort by the ownership and Ron Mexico.

I am not visiting any of the usual American sites today because I recorded Notre Dame v LSU and don’t want to do a Likely Lads. Madame Zaza predicts: Brady Quinn has a magnificent game, Al Davros calls him afterwards and pleads with him to come to Oakland – and he breaks both his legs in the first minicamp after the Raiders draft him.

There was also plenty of evidence yesterday that pointed to Dolphin coach Nick Saban being hired to coach Alabama for several thousand wheelbarrows full of US dollars. It makes sense; he steered LSU to a share in the ‘National Championship’ a couple of seasons ago and he knows SEC football.

But the best story of Bowl Season: Boise State beating Oklahoma. I’ll stick more stuff on here when I get it, but it’s one of those stories that Hollywood would laugh at as being unbelievable. Stay tuned and find out why.

Official: The Oakland Raiders are sh*t.

Let's be honest: in a Madame-Zazaesque moment I saw this coming.

If I had Photoshop on this machine, the ND navy and gold would be replaced by Raider Silver and Black, because due to a ridiculous win over the Dallas Cowboys by the Detroit Lions, the Oakland Raiders have the first pick in the NFL draft in April. Whether or not Brady Quinn is the right decision remains to be seen.

Without going into too much detail here, when Charlie Weis came to South Bend Quinn had been struggling in Tyrone Willingham's offense and despite the progress he's made since, the situation in Oakland is not conducive to anyone's confidence (or sanity), especially when he might be thrust into a situation where there may be a new head coach/offensive co-ordinator with Al Davros harping on about the good old days of the vertical passing game.

For the last time, I am your Creator! You will obey me!

Without boring anyone to tears, there is some wonderful talent on the board - as always. Now it's time for the non-playoff teams to work out who they want to take. I'll have some kind of draft preview in the weeks after the Superbowl, but here's a heretical thought: how about Adrian Peterson with first pick and give Andrew Walter a chance to develop?

The other prediction from almost a month ago - that an NFC team with a .500 record would qualify for post season - also came true, even though the New York Giants only clinched that spot with their first win for something like half the season. They beat out Carolina, St Louis and Green Bay and may have ended Brett Favre's pro career.

Right, back over here for a bit. Manyoo now have a six point lead over Chelsea (keep up at the back there) in what is annoyingly referred to as the 'EPL', although they can extend it to nine if they beat Nyurr-cassel today; Chelsea play Aston Villa tomorrow evening. Watford are already ten points away from safety at the bottom and play Full Ham today in a game that not too long ago would have been in the lower half of the league. In Division 1, Brum also have a six point lead (over Preston and Derby), but I'm hoping that Southampton do well this season because I NEVER EVER WANT TO BE STUCK AT THAT BLOODY RAILWAY STATION AGAIN.

By far and away the most exciting situation is in Division 3.

Now I've been away over the Christmas period but due to the wonders of modern technology I've been able to determine a pattern in City's last three games that I should find worrying but don't. Having to come back from a goal - or even two - down to pick up five of the nine points available is typical Bristol City. I'm sure Forest fans are saying the same thing now they've been caught and overtaken by Scunny, so let's have a gander at today's games with Jimmy Hill, who seems to be reporting from 'The World At War' studio this week.

'Tonight we'll be looking at how the Germans used a modified Schlieffen plan to outflank the French..'

'Well, there's a real four pointer at the top of Division 3 this afternoon when third placed Old Ham Athletic take on second placed Nottingham Forest at Boundary Park. Even though Old Ham have already beaten Forest in the league this season, I'm expecting a tightly contested game that will probably finish in a draw.

'Leaders Scunthorpe United travel to Port Vale - The Iron haven't conceded a goal away from home since the beginning of November*, but the Valiants home form has improved recently. I'm expecting a tightly contested game that will probably finish in a draw

'Fourth placed Bristol City visit Leyton Orient for the second time this season, having already won at Brisbane Road in the Watney Cup. Despite their impressive home form City haven't won away in the league since the end of September** so I'm expecting a tightly contested game that will probably finish in a draw. Over to Tony Gubba for thirty seconds of highlights, most of which will be of a dog urinating on a goal post.

Right, well if that's everything, I'm off for a drink, off to see my, erm, nephew at the, erm, ice-rink, yes that's it, huur. Bye.'

I'm off too, to the virtual bookies to spend some of the money the Philadelphia Eagles won for me yesterday. Jimmy might be on to something: all three are 9/4 for the draw.

Coming soon: Dead Painters I Hate.

* Oh Christ, the Recipe For Success (TM) for Division 3 football - win at home, don't let any in away. Monday 5th February on SkySports if you're interested. Watch in horror as the playoff nightmare becomes reality.

** See immediately above

James Brown 1933-2006

James Brown performing in 1969.

If that wasn't enough to convince you the man was a genius, check the dance moves out in the clip below. The young fella in the dark glasses and the powder blue jacket did.



When I was 15, I wrote an essay about my heroes. James Brown was one of them, as were Otis Redding and Roland Alphonso. I actually met Roland Alphonso five months before he died in November 1998 and I used to joke about meeting James Brown one day - because I never thought I'd meet Roland Al, there was always a chance I'd meet James Brown or see him perform. I never did.


Skatalites from 1992, including solos from the Roland Alphonso (about 6:00m in), Tommy McCook and Lester Sterling.


Otis Redding performs 'I Can't Turn You Loose', 'Shake' and 'Land Of 1000 Dances' with Eric Burdon of The Animals and Chris Farlowe on 'Ready Steady Go' in September 1966, around the time James Brown was recording 'It's A Man's World' and The Skatalites had turned into The Soul Brothers.

But here's one of my favourites to finish with.



Play JB LOUD if you're having a party tonight and keep diggin' the new breed thing into 2007 and beyond.