It's the middle of September and I've not posted for two months, despite all my favourite games starting. OK, I went on holiday for a couple of weeks but this is pathetic.
So let's jump in straight away with some headlines.
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Angels for winning the American League West. I've made a stunning 16p profit on that for a £2 bet on B*tfair. Well done me.
Not doing so well is my pick for the National League West, the Arizona Diamondbacks who are now 4.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, I had bets on the two Chicago clubs, who are both leading their respective divisions although the Cubs eight game lead over the Brewers is a little more comfortable than the slim lead the White Sox have over the Twins.
All the football seasons are now underway and I shall be nipping down to Ashton Gate in about an hour's time for the game against Birmingham City. We're fifth, they're second, we've not lost at home and they've not won away...so it's a big game. Don't want to make any predictions, so I won't. Well, maybe a little one. It won't finish scoreless. I could lay that outcome on B*tfair, but knowing my luck...
College Football has been running since the end of August and thanks to B*tfair I can download my results in a handy spreadsheet format to see exactly how crap I am at predicting winners.
Starting with Week 1, Clemson to beat Alabama, Michigan to beat Utah, Pittsburgh to beat Bowling Green, Virginia Tech to beat...ah well, you get the picture and I'm sure you're tired of bad beat stories already but there's only one that can really be put down to overwhelming stupidity. In an incident comparable to backing Florida State to win the ACC last season, I pressed the wrong button and backed UTEP to beat Texas a couple of weeks ago. I'm trying to think of a suitable Association Football parallel but the only thing I can come up with is something like Chelsea playing Luton, Chelsea being given a two goal start and me still backing Luton to win. Hey, did anyone notice that Luton fails the blogger.com spellchecker?
Professional Football is approaching Week 3 and the main regular season story is that Tom Brady is out for the season*. This does not mean the Patriots have suddenly become fallible: far from it. There are ten 2-0 teams right now and they're amongst them.
The others are Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Denver, the Giants, Dallas, Green Bay, Carolina and Arizona. Including the Patriots, six of those teams made the playoffs last season - Buffalo, Denver, Carolina and Arizona didn't.
Thanks to the research by the good people at Football Outsiders (in particular the win expectancy charts published in Football Prospectus 2008), these ten teams currently have a 65.2% chance of making the playoffs, which can reach 79.5% if any of them win on Sunday. I'm pushed for time now, but as part of my selection process for my Sunday picks I'll be thinking out loud later in the week on the games the teams above are involved in.
But right now, I'm off to be a fan.
* As opposed to the main pre-season story, which was the Brett Favre saga.
Showing posts with label Bristol City. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bristol City. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Saturday, June 28, 2008
An Intriguing Final
Euro 2008 ends tomorrow night with a clash between pre-tournament favourites Germany and perennial under achievers Spain, the latter being the actual favourites with the bookies.
You might ask why a team that hasn't won a major tournament for over 40 years is favoured over one that has one of the best tournament records in the world, but the answer is simple. Spain have played some exciting football, have scored lots of goals and have a number of outstanding individuals. On the other hand, Germany have occasionally looked clueless, have already lost to Croatia and narrowly avoided making complete fools of themselves against Turkey in the semi finals.
Having said all that about the Germans, they're in the final and you cannot be absolutely sure that they won't win it - especially if the Spanish turn into the proverbial rabbits in the headlights.
Not surprisingly, I've got some action on this game. I laid Germany on Betfair at 5.1 at the beginning of the month - before the tournament even started - because I really didn't think they'd win it. The lay odds as I write this are currently 2.46.
Then I got Germany in the work sweepstake...getting past Turkey meant a guaranteed £22 which could increase to £50 if they win. It's something of a no-lose situation because I've had a small punt on Spain; talk about hedging my bets!
Madame Zaza predicts Spain. Because they're better.
City brought a new player yesterday, Gavin Williams from Ipswich. His Wikipedia entry is here, his overall stats are here and here's a goal he scored against Leeds United.
There'll probably be some more player movement over the next week but I'll report that when it happens rather than indulging in the type of idle speculation that's been occurring on certain forums.
More sporting excitement: I got an e-mail from the ever helpful Liam Doyle at Word Of Sport telling me that they were about to send me the college football previews I ordered...including the amazing Phil Steele. Can't wait!
Todays baseball picks: Detroit Tigers over Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins over Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox over Chicago Cubs. The Twins have a ten game undefeated streak, the best in baseball right now.
Back tomorrow, possibly after the Euro 2008 final.
You might ask why a team that hasn't won a major tournament for over 40 years is favoured over one that has one of the best tournament records in the world, but the answer is simple. Spain have played some exciting football, have scored lots of goals and have a number of outstanding individuals. On the other hand, Germany have occasionally looked clueless, have already lost to Croatia and narrowly avoided making complete fools of themselves against Turkey in the semi finals.
Having said all that about the Germans, they're in the final and you cannot be absolutely sure that they won't win it - especially if the Spanish turn into the proverbial rabbits in the headlights.
Not surprisingly, I've got some action on this game. I laid Germany on Betfair at 5.1 at the beginning of the month - before the tournament even started - because I really didn't think they'd win it. The lay odds as I write this are currently 2.46.
Then I got Germany in the work sweepstake...getting past Turkey meant a guaranteed £22 which could increase to £50 if they win. It's something of a no-lose situation because I've had a small punt on Spain; talk about hedging my bets!
Madame Zaza predicts Spain. Because they're better.
City brought a new player yesterday, Gavin Williams from Ipswich. His Wikipedia entry is here, his overall stats are here and here's a goal he scored against Leeds United.
There'll probably be some more player movement over the next week but I'll report that when it happens rather than indulging in the type of idle speculation that's been occurring on certain forums.
More sporting excitement: I got an e-mail from the ever helpful Liam Doyle at Word Of Sport telling me that they were about to send me the college football previews I ordered...including the amazing Phil Steele. Can't wait!
Todays baseball picks: Detroit Tigers over Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins over Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox over Chicago Cubs. The Twins have a ten game undefeated streak, the best in baseball right now.
Back tomorrow, possibly after the Euro 2008 final.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Close but no cigar
Well, seeing as it's been three months since I wrote anything here and a month since the Championship playoff final, I think it's worth an update.
City lost 1-0 to Hull City at Wembley and that was that. I'm still occasionally very annoyed about it and it all came back to me last night while I was watching the amazing end of the Croatia v Turkey game in Euro 2008. More of that nearer the start of the football season I think.
City lost 1-0 to Hull City at Wembley and that was that. I'm still occasionally very annoyed about it and it all came back to me last night while I was watching the amazing end of the Croatia v Turkey game in Euro 2008. More of that nearer the start of the football season I think.
Monday, March 31, 2008
'Be the hero, Steve...'
Were the words I said to myself as Steve Brooker entered the fray on Saturday afternoon. 72 minutes gone, 1-1. As predicted, Dele Adebola scored the first, but Norwich equalised through Darren Huckerby and to be honest I was sitting in the Atyeo thinking we needed a bloody miracle.Three minutes of injury time on the board, into the third minute, free kick to City, Brooker scores his first goal for City since the 3-3 draw with Coventry City in the cup in January 2007.
City 2, Norwich 1. Top of the Championship again.
Coventry City...Coventry City...Coventry City...
In a curious parallel, Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals (and the Arlen Spectres) hit a walk off home run to win the game against Atlanta on Sunday night, the first win at the new stadium in DC and the first Spectre home run of the season. Different games, thousands of miles apart, last minute dramatic finishes...happy, happy, happy. Check out Zimmerman in the Nationals road uniform...looks familiar, doesn't it?
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Jerry Dammers Wouldn't Advertise Fish Fingers
And so to Norwich.
I did all the prep work yesterday, but it's currently upstairs, so please excuse me while I go and get it. Meanwhile, have some old time music that doesn't currently promote fish fingers.
The Specials. From Coventry. Fate.
Right...confusingly, Sky is reporting that City are attempting to beat Norwich for the third straight time which apparently means the third time in the league since May 1999. Errr...we've only played them once in the league since then, when we won at Carrow Road earlier in the season. Not much of a stat.
Norwich have won two of their last six aways but the last win was against the Huns on 9th February. Since then they've lost three (they drew at Watford but 'Watford' and 'draw' feature in a lot in sentences in this blog) and have scored a massive one goal in their last four, a late equaliser by former Gashead Jamie Cureton. He's not the goalscoring threat: Ched Evans (on loan from Manchester City and it's short for 'Chedwyn'...UPDATE: he's riding the pine this afternoon) has scored three of their last four away goals. Another stat for you: half of those four goals came in the last ten minutes.
We need an early goal or at least one in the first half, which is where three of the seven goals we've scored in the last six homes have come. Specifically, Dele Adebola needs an early one, followed by a goal by Defender To Be Named Later: defensively, in the last two games we've conceded just before half time and this needs to STOP RIGHT NOW.
Wild guess time: a similar game to the Sheffield Wednesday one. We get a two goal lead, then either Cureton or Evans scores late and it's squeeky bum time with three quarters of an hour of injury time. As it's a Saturday afternoon game and I'll be sitting in my traditional spot, this is a case of normal service.
Mind you, it's blowing a gale and pissing down outside. 0-0.
Keep repeating the mantra...Coventry...Coventry...Coventry....
I did all the prep work yesterday, but it's currently upstairs, so please excuse me while I go and get it. Meanwhile, have some old time music that doesn't currently promote fish fingers.
The Specials. From Coventry. Fate.
Right...confusingly, Sky is reporting that City are attempting to beat Norwich for the third straight time which apparently means the third time in the league since May 1999. Errr...we've only played them once in the league since then, when we won at Carrow Road earlier in the season. Not much of a stat.
Norwich have won two of their last six aways but the last win was against the Huns on 9th February. Since then they've lost three (they drew at Watford but 'Watford' and 'draw' feature in a lot in sentences in this blog) and have scored a massive one goal in their last four, a late equaliser by former Gashead Jamie Cureton. He's not the goalscoring threat: Ched Evans (on loan from Manchester City and it's short for 'Chedwyn'...UPDATE: he's riding the pine this afternoon) has scored three of their last four away goals. Another stat for you: half of those four goals came in the last ten minutes.
We need an early goal or at least one in the first half, which is where three of the seven goals we've scored in the last six homes have come. Specifically, Dele Adebola needs an early one, followed by a goal by Defender To Be Named Later: defensively, in the last two games we've conceded just before half time and this needs to STOP RIGHT NOW.
Wild guess time: a similar game to the Sheffield Wednesday one. We get a two goal lead, then either Cureton or Evans scores late and it's squeeky bum time with three quarters of an hour of injury time. As it's a Saturday afternoon game and I'll be sitting in my traditional spot, this is a case of normal service.
Mind you, it's blowing a gale and pissing down outside. 0-0.
Keep repeating the mantra...Coventry...Coventry...Coventry....
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
And They're Off...
The A's split the Opening Series in Japan with the Sox, the Spectres are currently joint third.
City remain second despite losing to the Huns on Saturday. We've got Nardge Stee on Saturday, who last won down here in April 1980 during the last days of Division 1...to put it another way, when this was number one in the hit parade....
Which was replaced with this almost immediately...
Ah, those were the days.
Not much change in the top six apart from Plymouth have made their way back into it. There's a four point gap between them and WBA, but then four clubs immediately behind Gargoyle who could still make the playoffs.
T6H2H as follows:
WBA P9 W5 D2 L2 F19 A10 Pts 17
City P9 W3 D4 L2 F9 A10 Pts 13
Stoke P9 W2 D6 L2 F11 A9 Pts 12
Plymouth P10 W3 D3 L4 F13 A16 Pts 12
Hull P9 W2 D3 L4 F9 A12 Pts 9
Watford P8 W1 D4 L3 F3 A7 Pts 7
Remaining games:
Hull v Watford (this Saturday)
WBA v Watford (12th April)
Stoke v Bristol City (19th April)
Hull v Watford looks like a draw to me, although the Tigers haven't beaten Watford at home since 1978. Hull haven't beaten any of the top six at home this season, Watford haven't beaten any of the top six away in 2007/2008. Having said that, although Hull's recent home form has been pretty impressive, they've only played one team in the top half of the table in the last six games (Burnley). Watford have drawn five of their last six aways including games against City and Plymouth.
The top four have got a mixed bag this weekend. I'll post an in depth profile before our game on Friday or Saturday and let's assume that WBA will beat Colchester at The Hawthorns, but both Plymouth and Stoke are away, to Coventry and Sheffield Wednesday respectively.
Coventry are fearsome at home right now. Apart from being smashed 5-0 by WBA in the Cup in February the last time they lost - and conceded a goal at Highfield Road in the league - was in mid January. Plymouth's recent away record isn't too shabby but they may be up against it this time - this tends to be a series where the home team wins.
Sheffield Wednesday v Stoke has all the makings of an epic. Stoke have a one point lead over City but the Wendies are in the last relegation spot. They've lost two of their last six homes (WBA and Ipswich) whereas the Stokies have lost three of their last six aways. Wednesday haven't beaten Stoke at home this century, but two of the last three games have been draws.
While I was looking all this up, something struck me. If City go up, it may be because of some help from Coventry City. Why? Stay tuned.
City remain second despite losing to the Huns on Saturday. We've got Nardge Stee on Saturday, who last won down here in April 1980 during the last days of Division 1...to put it another way, when this was number one in the hit parade....
Which was replaced with this almost immediately...
Ah, those were the days.
Not much change in the top six apart from Plymouth have made their way back into it. There's a four point gap between them and WBA, but then four clubs immediately behind Gargoyle who could still make the playoffs.
T6H2H as follows:
WBA P9 W5 D2 L2 F19 A10 Pts 17
City P9 W3 D4 L2 F9 A10 Pts 13
Stoke P9 W2 D6 L2 F11 A9 Pts 12
Plymouth P10 W3 D3 L4 F13 A16 Pts 12
Hull P9 W2 D3 L4 F9 A12 Pts 9
Watford P8 W1 D4 L3 F3 A7 Pts 7
Remaining games:
Hull v Watford (this Saturday)
WBA v Watford (12th April)
Stoke v Bristol City (19th April)
Hull v Watford looks like a draw to me, although the Tigers haven't beaten Watford at home since 1978. Hull haven't beaten any of the top six at home this season, Watford haven't beaten any of the top six away in 2007/2008. Having said that, although Hull's recent home form has been pretty impressive, they've only played one team in the top half of the table in the last six games (Burnley). Watford have drawn five of their last six aways including games against City and Plymouth.
The top four have got a mixed bag this weekend. I'll post an in depth profile before our game on Friday or Saturday and let's assume that WBA will beat Colchester at The Hawthorns, but both Plymouth and Stoke are away, to Coventry and Sheffield Wednesday respectively.
Coventry are fearsome at home right now. Apart from being smashed 5-0 by WBA in the Cup in February the last time they lost - and conceded a goal at Highfield Road in the league - was in mid January. Plymouth's recent away record isn't too shabby but they may be up against it this time - this tends to be a series where the home team wins.
Sheffield Wednesday v Stoke has all the makings of an epic. Stoke have a one point lead over City but the Wendies are in the last relegation spot. They've lost two of their last six homes (WBA and Ipswich) whereas the Stokies have lost three of their last six aways. Wednesday haven't beaten Stoke at home this century, but two of the last three games have been draws.
While I was looking all this up, something struck me. If City go up, it may be because of some help from Coventry City. Why? Stay tuned.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Ups & Downs
A mixed bag being a red last weekend. City lost and are now second on goal difference to Stoke, who drew 0-0 at Watford. Having spent a lot of time hanging about in the rain I managed to pick up a stinking cold which I'm currently suffering from. I managed to pick up a ticket for the trip to Cardiff next weekend.
I'm culturally confused at the best of times, but my negative feelings about a football defeat were offset by a Grand Slam win for Wales. So it's ironic that travelling to the town where my grandmother and father were born to see the team that my grandfather followed and where my sister and brother in law live is such a pain in the backside...purely because I support Bristol City.
Of course, there's a lot more to it than that but it's bloody silly nonetheless. I'm sure I can't be the only City fan who is Anglo-Welsh.
Summer's coming. I drafted my baseball team on Sunday: more details coming, probably tomorrow.
I'm culturally confused at the best of times, but my negative feelings about a football defeat were offset by a Grand Slam win for Wales. So it's ironic that travelling to the town where my grandmother and father were born to see the team that my grandfather followed and where my sister and brother in law live is such a pain in the backside...purely because I support Bristol City.
Of course, there's a lot more to it than that but it's bloody silly nonetheless. I'm sure I can't be the only City fan who is Anglo-Welsh.
Summer's coming. I drafted my baseball team on Sunday: more details coming, probably tomorrow.
Friday, March 14, 2008
The Championship Enters The Twilight Zone
Right, to business.
Hull are now a top six club and the T6H2H Table now looks like this:
1. WBA P8 W4 D2 L2 F17 A11 Pts 14
2. Charlton P9 W3 D4 L2 F12 A12 Pts 13
3. City P9 W3 D4 L2 F8 A9 Pts 13
4. Stoke P8 W2 D4 L2 F8 A7 Pts 10
5. Hull P9 W1 D4 L4 F8 A12 Pts 7
6. Watford P7 W1 D4 L4 F5 A7 Pts 7
Three of the remaining five fixtures between the current top six take place before the end of March, starting tomorrow when Stoke go to Watford. Stoke have won two of their last six aways but have been outscored by 6-9, Watford haven't lost any of their last six homes and have only conceded two goals whilst scoring eight.
The best result for City would be a Watford win or a draw. The 'Hornets' are the bookies favourites but if it was available I'd have a bet on how many birds in flight get hit by the ball. Watford were here on Tuesday and what a bunch of hoofers they were. Stoke aren't exactly well known as masters of the short passing game either.
We've got Plymouth. They've lost three of their last six aways, we're unbeaten at home since November and they've not won here since September 1931.
Make of that what you will.
Congratulations to WBA on belting the Gas 5-1 at The Mem to reach the semi finals of the FA Cup. Ordinarily that would be an achievement, but it's tempered slightly by the fact that there are two other Championship teams in the semi finals...Barnsley and Cardiff. One of them will reach the final - and there's a very real prospect that it could be an all Championship final if WBA beat Portsmouth.
Outstanding Baggies v Pompey fact: the last time West Brom won the cup (in 1968), they beat Portsmouth 2-1 in the fifth round. The season before was the last time Cardiff played Barnsley in the cup, Cardiff won the third round tie after a replay.
So here's my take: we beat Plymouth, Watford beat Stoke and our lead increases.
Then we go to Cardiff. More after the game tomorrow.
Hull are now a top six club and the T6H2H Table now looks like this:
1. WBA P8 W4 D2 L2 F17 A11 Pts 14
2. Charlton P9 W3 D4 L2 F12 A12 Pts 13
3. City P9 W3 D4 L2 F8 A9 Pts 13
4. Stoke P8 W2 D4 L2 F8 A7 Pts 10
5. Hull P9 W1 D4 L4 F8 A12 Pts 7
6. Watford P7 W1 D4 L4 F5 A7 Pts 7
Three of the remaining five fixtures between the current top six take place before the end of March, starting tomorrow when Stoke go to Watford. Stoke have won two of their last six aways but have been outscored by 6-9, Watford haven't lost any of their last six homes and have only conceded two goals whilst scoring eight.
The best result for City would be a Watford win or a draw. The 'Hornets' are the bookies favourites but if it was available I'd have a bet on how many birds in flight get hit by the ball. Watford were here on Tuesday and what a bunch of hoofers they were. Stoke aren't exactly well known as masters of the short passing game either.
We've got Plymouth. They've lost three of their last six aways, we're unbeaten at home since November and they've not won here since September 1931.
Make of that what you will.
Congratulations to WBA on belting the Gas 5-1 at The Mem to reach the semi finals of the FA Cup. Ordinarily that would be an achievement, but it's tempered slightly by the fact that there are two other Championship teams in the semi finals...Barnsley and Cardiff. One of them will reach the final - and there's a very real prospect that it could be an all Championship final if WBA beat Portsmouth.
Outstanding Baggies v Pompey fact: the last time West Brom won the cup (in 1968), they beat Portsmouth 2-1 in the fifth round. The season before was the last time Cardiff played Barnsley in the cup, Cardiff won the third round tie after a replay.
So here's my take: we beat Plymouth, Watford beat Stoke and our lead increases.
Then we go to Cardiff. More after the game tomorrow.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
The Giddy Heights Part II
Two games, four points. Still top.
A win at home against Hull followed by a 1-1 draw with Charlton last night, which has amended the T6H2H stats as follows:
1. WBA P8 W5 D2 L1 F19 A9 Pts 17
2. Stoke P8 W3 D3 L3 F11 A9 Pts 12
3. Charlton P7 W2 D3 L2 F10 A12 Pts 9
4. City P7 W2 D3 L2 F7 A9 Pts 9
5. Plymouth P7 W2 D2 L3 F9 A12 Pts 8
6. Watford P6 W0 D3 L3 F4 A9 Pts 3
The only other game that had any impact this table was WBA beating Plymouth 3-0 on Saturday. I'm not going to spend any time on T6vB3 as the two games in that subdivision went as planned with wins for WBA and Plymouth against Sheffield Wednesday and Colchester respectively.
Wednesday looked...well, errr...Donald Ducked.
All this means is that City move up one place in my hypothetical table, but more significantly I think last night's point in South East London may mean that in the long run Charlton may well end up spending next season in the Championship. They've bought in former City striker Leroy Lita in on loan for the rest of the month, the sort of move that indicates that Alan Pardew realises that the game may almost be up this season. They've only got one more home game against a top six team (WBA on 21st March), the last opportunity for them to actually beat a top six club.
The bookies still seem to hate us though. City's odds seem to be shortening, but we're still outsiders in the automatic promotion slots. I'm probably not going to bother looking at them again until after the Leicester game on Saturday. We've struggled there in the league - haven't won there since 25th March 1915...about a week after the attack on the Dardanelles began.
Talking of which...the favourites for this weekend in the Six Nations are Ireland, England and France. Hmmm. I'd agree with two of those.
A win at home against Hull followed by a 1-1 draw with Charlton last night, which has amended the T6H2H stats as follows:
1. WBA P8 W5 D2 L1 F19 A9 Pts 17
2. Stoke P8 W3 D3 L3 F11 A9 Pts 12
3. Charlton P7 W2 D3 L2 F10 A12 Pts 9
4. City P7 W2 D3 L2 F7 A9 Pts 9
5. Plymouth P7 W2 D2 L3 F9 A12 Pts 8
6. Watford P6 W0 D3 L3 F4 A9 Pts 3
The only other game that had any impact this table was WBA beating Plymouth 3-0 on Saturday. I'm not going to spend any time on T6vB3 as the two games in that subdivision went as planned with wins for WBA and Plymouth against Sheffield Wednesday and Colchester respectively.
Wednesday looked...well, errr...Donald Ducked.
All this means is that City move up one place in my hypothetical table, but more significantly I think last night's point in South East London may mean that in the long run Charlton may well end up spending next season in the Championship. They've bought in former City striker Leroy Lita in on loan for the rest of the month, the sort of move that indicates that Alan Pardew realises that the game may almost be up this season. They've only got one more home game against a top six team (WBA on 21st March), the last opportunity for them to actually beat a top six club.
The bookies still seem to hate us though. City's odds seem to be shortening, but we're still outsiders in the automatic promotion slots. I'm probably not going to bother looking at them again until after the Leicester game on Saturday. We've struggled there in the league - haven't won there since 25th March 1915...about a week after the attack on the Dardanelles began.
Talking of which...the favourites for this weekend in the Six Nations are Ireland, England and France. Hmmm. I'd agree with two of those.
Saturday, March 01, 2008
The Giddy Heights
Exactly a year ago I was worried about getting out of League 1. Having suffered through several seasons of failure via automatic promotion and the play offs it was nerve wracking to be doing so well. Everything turned out well in the end.
In August - like a lot of other City fans - I expected this season to be about consolidation. I thought mid table would be fine, perhaps with a cup run.
If we beat Hull today we go top of the Championship. We're currently second behind Stoke City and although I don't have a programme near me I think I'm correct in saying that we've not been out of the top five all season.
I did a head to head analysis this time last year and here's the same thing for this season. This is based on the top six playing each other:
1. WBA P7 W4 D2 L1 F16 A9 Pts 14
2. Stoke City P8 W3 D3 L2 F11 A9 Pts 12
3. Plymouth Argyle P6 W2 D2 L2 F9 A9 Pts 8
4. Charlton Athletic P7 W2 D2 L3 F9 A11 Pts 8
5. City P6 W2 D2 L2 F6 A8 Pts 8
6. Watford P6 W0 D3 L3 F4 A9 Pts 3
Top Six v Bottom 3:
1. WBA 21pts
2. Stoke 21 pts
3. City 17pts
4. Watford 16pts
5. Charlton 14pts
6. Colchester 13pts (interesting!)
7. Plymouth 12pts
8. Scunthorpe 10pts
9. Sheffield Wednesday 7pts
Comparison between the two tables seems to indicate the following:
* Watford are punching above their weight at the moment
* Colchester may be too good to go down
* WBA should win promotion
* Plymouth are erratic
Remaining games as follows:
Today: WBA v Plymouth
4th March: Charlton v City, Plymouth v Colchester, Sheffield Wednesday v WBA
11th March: City v Watford, Scunthorpe v Plymouth
15th March: City v Plymouth, Watford v Stoke
21st March: Charlton v WBA
22nd March: Plymouth v Watford
29th March: Sheffield Wednesday v Stoke, WBA v Colchester
5th April: Plymouth v Charlton
12th April: WBA v Watford, Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth
19th April: Stoke v City
26th April: Colchester v Stoke, Watford v Scunthorpe
So basically the four games after today (including Leicester next Saturday) are absolutely huge. It's interesting to note that this is a remarkably similar situation to last season and the experience City got last year may be invaluable - in some respects we're actually doing better than we did against top six teams in League 1 during 2006/2007. We've lost fewer games and have conceded fewer goals although to be fair it's also worth pointing out that we've scored fewer.
Some more interesting things about the top six head to head games...
WBA are undefeated at home, so are Stoke. Two of WBA's last three games against the current top six are at home, Stoke have only one left (yeah, City)
Plymouth, Charlton and Watford haven't won at home. Watford only have one opportunity left while Plymouth and Charlton have two.
Stoke and Watford haven't won away. Stoke's last away game against the current top six is at Watford, the Hornets still have to travel to City and WBA.
City have the tightest home defence in these games (two goals conceded), Watford have the worst (seven). WBA have scored the most home goals (nine, including four against City and Charlton), Watford and City have only scored twice at home against other top six clubs,
Watford have the tightest away defence (two goals), Charlton have the worst away defence (seven goals). WBA have scored the most goals away from home (seven), Watford have only managed two.
Most common result: 1-1, four times
Home wins: seven (biggest: WBA 4 Bristol City 1) accounting for 35%
Draws: seven (again, 35%)
Away wins: six (biggest: Watford 0, WBA 3), 30% of the games so far
No team has won both games against any opponents (yet).
In August - like a lot of other City fans - I expected this season to be about consolidation. I thought mid table would be fine, perhaps with a cup run.
If we beat Hull today we go top of the Championship. We're currently second behind Stoke City and although I don't have a programme near me I think I'm correct in saying that we've not been out of the top five all season.
I did a head to head analysis this time last year and here's the same thing for this season. This is based on the top six playing each other:
1. WBA P7 W4 D2 L1 F16 A9 Pts 14
2. Stoke City P8 W3 D3 L2 F11 A9 Pts 12
3. Plymouth Argyle P6 W2 D2 L2 F9 A9 Pts 8
4. Charlton Athletic P7 W2 D2 L3 F9 A11 Pts 8
5. City P6 W2 D2 L2 F6 A8 Pts 8
6. Watford P6 W0 D3 L3 F4 A9 Pts 3
Top Six v Bottom 3:
1. WBA 21pts
2. Stoke 21 pts
3. City 17pts
4. Watford 16pts
5. Charlton 14pts
6. Colchester 13pts (interesting!)
7. Plymouth 12pts
8. Scunthorpe 10pts
9. Sheffield Wednesday 7pts
Comparison between the two tables seems to indicate the following:
* Watford are punching above their weight at the moment
* Colchester may be too good to go down
* WBA should win promotion
* Plymouth are erratic
Remaining games as follows:
Today: WBA v Plymouth
4th March: Charlton v City, Plymouth v Colchester, Sheffield Wednesday v WBA
11th March: City v Watford, Scunthorpe v Plymouth
15th March: City v Plymouth, Watford v Stoke
21st March: Charlton v WBA
22nd March: Plymouth v Watford
29th March: Sheffield Wednesday v Stoke, WBA v Colchester
5th April: Plymouth v Charlton
12th April: WBA v Watford, Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth
19th April: Stoke v City
26th April: Colchester v Stoke, Watford v Scunthorpe
So basically the four games after today (including Leicester next Saturday) are absolutely huge. It's interesting to note that this is a remarkably similar situation to last season and the experience City got last year may be invaluable - in some respects we're actually doing better than we did against top six teams in League 1 during 2006/2007. We've lost fewer games and have conceded fewer goals although to be fair it's also worth pointing out that we've scored fewer.
Some more interesting things about the top six head to head games...
WBA are undefeated at home, so are Stoke. Two of WBA's last three games against the current top six are at home, Stoke have only one left (yeah, City)
Plymouth, Charlton and Watford haven't won at home. Watford only have one opportunity left while Plymouth and Charlton have two.
Stoke and Watford haven't won away. Stoke's last away game against the current top six is at Watford, the Hornets still have to travel to City and WBA.
City have the tightest home defence in these games (two goals conceded), Watford have the worst (seven). WBA have scored the most home goals (nine, including four against City and Charlton), Watford and City have only scored twice at home against other top six clubs,
Watford have the tightest away defence (two goals), Charlton have the worst away defence (seven goals). WBA have scored the most goals away from home (seven), Watford have only managed two.
Most common result: 1-1, four times
Home wins: seven (biggest: WBA 4 Bristol City 1) accounting for 35%
Draws: seven (again, 35%)
Away wins: six (biggest: Watford 0, WBA 3), 30% of the games so far
No team has won both games against any opponents (yet).
So what's going to happen?
I'd love to see City go up again. Three of the top six have been in the Premier League in the last four years and the pressure is on them to get back there, not us. Plymouth have never played in the top tier and Stoke haven't been up there since 1985, five years since we departed.
One thing I've not mentioned yet is the potential impact Bristol Rovers might have on all this. Without spending any time on the full story, WBA have to travel to the Mem for an FA Cup quarter final in a couple of weeks that I fully expect West Brom to win.
So what will the prospect of an FA Cup semi final at Wembley have on their league form? The games are supposed to take place on April 5th, the day they're supposed to be away at Blackpool.
But back to the first paragraph of this section. Here are the outcomes:
* Guaranteed Championship football next season (already achieved)
* Miss out on the play offs on the last day
* Playoffs, but lose in the first round
* Playoffs, but lose at Wembley
* Automatic promotion as play off winners
* Automatic promotion as runners up
* Automatic promotion to the Premier League as Football League Champions (and I can't believe I just wrote that)
I'd like the last one best. I have absolutely no idea yet what will happen, but the romantic version is this:
I went to see the New York Giants play the Miami Dolphins last October. I was wandering around the outside of New Wembley when I saw a Peter Carol coach in the car park - for those of you that don't know, that's the company that runs coaches for City. My immediate thought:
'It's early. It's not May yet.'
So the play off final v Stoke, eight years after they beat us in the Auto Windscreens at the old stadium.
This time...WE win.
Saturday, October 06, 2007
An update at last...
City lost for the first time this season, 3-0 at Barnsley. We've got Sheffield United at home later on (as in 5.20pm on Sky Sports) and they've not won down here since March 1971.
Or to put it another way, since this was Number 1:
...and that's a very long time ago indeed. Madame Zaza finds this a difficult one to call as although we're undefeated at home, we've only won once. The Blades have only picked up one away point this season (a 2-2 draw at Blackpool) but don't seem to have any trouble scoring away from home having scored two goals in their last three aways. We don't need to win as much as they do, but I still fancy a draw...even though I'm not going to bet on it, like I did last week.
Right, smashing my way through College Football...
No. 1 LSU (5-0) at home vs No.9 (and reigning National Champions) Florida. Obviously game of the week, but because baseball is in playoff mode, unless I tape it 'as live' at 3:30pm on Sunday I won't see it. Shouldn't be that hard to avoid the result as we're staying at friends tonight after playing poker and we're having lunch at my in laws tomorrow.
FSU (3-1, 4th in the ACC Atlantic Division) v North Carolina State (1-4). My bet is looking anything but secure at the moment...all because of a slip of the mouse at the start of the season. 5-0 Boston College leading the way in the Atlantic Division.
Michigan (3-2, currently undefeated in the Big Ten but in fourth place) v Eastern Michigan (2-3). Still a lot to play for here, but Big Blue are looking like a bit of a long shot. The undefeated pair of Ohio State and Wisconsin are leading the way.
Right, I'm off to collect my bike from the shop - the chain snapped on Friday, almost two years since I destroyed the last one.
To finish: Jimmy Hill!
You bloody tell 'em Jim!
Or to put it another way, since this was Number 1:
...and that's a very long time ago indeed. Madame Zaza finds this a difficult one to call as although we're undefeated at home, we've only won once. The Blades have only picked up one away point this season (a 2-2 draw at Blackpool) but don't seem to have any trouble scoring away from home having scored two goals in their last three aways. We don't need to win as much as they do, but I still fancy a draw...even though I'm not going to bet on it, like I did last week.
Right, smashing my way through College Football...
No. 1 LSU (5-0) at home vs No.9 (and reigning National Champions) Florida. Obviously game of the week, but because baseball is in playoff mode, unless I tape it 'as live' at 3:30pm on Sunday I won't see it. Shouldn't be that hard to avoid the result as we're staying at friends tonight after playing poker and we're having lunch at my in laws tomorrow.
FSU (3-1, 4th in the ACC Atlantic Division) v North Carolina State (1-4). My bet is looking anything but secure at the moment...all because of a slip of the mouse at the start of the season. 5-0 Boston College leading the way in the Atlantic Division.
Michigan (3-2, currently undefeated in the Big Ten but in fourth place) v Eastern Michigan (2-3). Still a lot to play for here, but Big Blue are looking like a bit of a long shot. The undefeated pair of Ohio State and Wisconsin are leading the way.
Right, I'm off to collect my bike from the shop - the chain snapped on Friday, almost two years since I destroyed the last one.
To finish: Jimmy Hill!
You bloody tell 'em Jim!
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Elitism
I'm not going to bother with the bottom two divisions in the Football League this season as I no longer have any interest in them. I hope I don't look back on this in a years' time and regret writing this. Early indications show that I might not, but 'football...bloody hell!' to quote Alex Ferguson...which brings me nicely on to...
Division 1 Game Of The Week: Everton v Man Utd
United basically won the championship last season with their come from behind win at Goodison Park. Although it's a bit early in the proceedings for this game to have that kind of impact it's still a must win for United and a must win for Everton if they're going to be taken seriously. ESPN Soccernet is reporting that Wayne Rooney will be in the ManYoo squad although whether he's there to play or to wind up Everton fans is another matter.
Division 2 Game Of The Week: Coventry City v Bristol City
And deservedly so. First v Third; we knocked Cov out of the FA Cup last season and they won't have liked that.
Division 1 One Sided Nonsense: Derby v Newcastle
Anti-game of the week because Derby are probably this year's Watford and Michael Owen is on a hot streak after scoring a brace against the Soviet Union on Wednesday. Not surprisingly, Newcastle are favourites.
Division 2 One Sided Nonsense: Leicester v QPR
But only because there are four points between them...which isn't saying much.
Division 2 Down Upside Is League Football The: Preston v Sheffield Wednesday
Both these clubs were either in or hovering around the playoffs last season and now they are the bottom two. You wouldn't expect this to last, but you never know. The Wendies looked poor when we beat them a couple of weeks ago.
So what, who cares:
Orient are top of Division 3. Some team called Nottingham Forest are currently 20th, which is worse than Bristol Rovers (who lost 3-0 at home to Leeds last night). Colin 'Fcuk Off' Calderwood is still Forest manager, but for how much longer?
If anyone cares (and I don't anymore) Darlington and Chesterfield are top of Division 4.
Futbol Americano
This season I'm just going to concentrate on the teams who I've backed in the NFL and the BCS and so far - after one game - things are decidedly mixed.
The Packers, Steelers, 49ers and Broncos all won in Week 1 and all have a reasonable chance of doing the same thing this weekend. If the Packers beat the Bears, the NFC Central becomes extremely interesting as there will be two teams with 2-0 records: if they don't the winner of Minnesota v Detroit will lead the division. Despite Chicago reaching the Superbowl last season, this division is not a strong one - hence the bet on Green Bay.
The Raiders travel to Denver. Josh McCown is allegedly out for three weeks so I imagine Dante Culpepper will start, backed up by Andrew Walter and with newly signed JaMarcus Russell as the third option. Great. The Broncos by about a zillion.
Tampa, Jacksonville and Philadelphia all lost. The Buccs have a tough game against the Saints, the loser will be 0-2 and it'll be time for all those statistical cliches to appear on Tuesday. The Jaguars should beat Atlanta and I expect Philly to beat a Redskins team that only won in overtime last weekend.
There are a couple of other games worth keeping an eye on. The Cheating Yankee Bastards have San Diego at home but arguably the most intriguing game of the week is the Jets travelling to Baltimore. The loser drops to 0-2 and although Jets QB Chad Pennington will not be playing, there are all sorts of wild rumours that Ravens LB Ray Lewis may be out for the season. I'm conflicted by this. I have the Ravens D in my fantasy league (I also drafted the Packers D for 'insurance purposes') and hopefully Baltimore will play well - but not well enough - to stop the Steelers from winning the division and therefore preventing me from collecting my bet.
The Cheating Yankee Bastards got their reward (sorry, punishment) yesterday and now - not surprisingly - their Superbowl wins are under scrutiny.
In a parallel sporting universe, another cheating case came to something of a conclusion this week. This will probably be the first and only time that Formula One makes it into this blog but the McLaren team and the CYBs were both caught doing something they shouldn't in order to increase their 'competitive edge'. This is what can happen when you don't play nice.
Arguably the simplest way to increase your competitive edge is to win a game. So it's rather bemusing to report that Michigan plays Notre Dame later in a game that one of them has to win. Both teams are 0-2 and although I saw the Michigan/Oregon game last week I've not seen ND yet...but both teams may be really awful.
LSU welcomes Middle Tennessee. This could get ugly early but although they lost the Blue Raiders put 42 points on Louisville last week. LSU will still win and there will be a lot of points.
FSU is in Boulder, CO for a game at...well, Colorado. Both teams are 1-1 and this is Colorado's home opener.
I'm going to a wedding party tonight so the next post may well be on Monday. I've got a day off and I'm going to fritter it away ;-)
Oh yeah, England Egg Chasers were shut out to the tune of 33 points by Sarth Effrika in the Ruggery World Cup on Friday. I can gloat at the moment, but I wouldn't be surprised if Wales get stuffed by a similar score by Oz today.
Division 1 Game Of The Week: Everton v Man Utd
United basically won the championship last season with their come from behind win at Goodison Park. Although it's a bit early in the proceedings for this game to have that kind of impact it's still a must win for United and a must win for Everton if they're going to be taken seriously. ESPN Soccernet is reporting that Wayne Rooney will be in the ManYoo squad although whether he's there to play or to wind up Everton fans is another matter.
Division 2 Game Of The Week: Coventry City v Bristol City
And deservedly so. First v Third; we knocked Cov out of the FA Cup last season and they won't have liked that.
Division 1 One Sided Nonsense: Derby v Newcastle
Anti-game of the week because Derby are probably this year's Watford and Michael Owen is on a hot streak after scoring a brace against the Soviet Union on Wednesday. Not surprisingly, Newcastle are favourites.
Division 2 One Sided Nonsense: Leicester v QPR
But only because there are four points between them...which isn't saying much.
Division 2 Down Upside Is League Football The: Preston v Sheffield Wednesday
Both these clubs were either in or hovering around the playoffs last season and now they are the bottom two. You wouldn't expect this to last, but you never know. The Wendies looked poor when we beat them a couple of weeks ago.
So what, who cares:
Orient are top of Division 3. Some team called Nottingham Forest are currently 20th, which is worse than Bristol Rovers (who lost 3-0 at home to Leeds last night). Colin 'Fcuk Off' Calderwood is still Forest manager, but for how much longer?
If anyone cares (and I don't anymore) Darlington and Chesterfield are top of Division 4.
Futbol Americano
This season I'm just going to concentrate on the teams who I've backed in the NFL and the BCS and so far - after one game - things are decidedly mixed.
The Packers, Steelers, 49ers and Broncos all won in Week 1 and all have a reasonable chance of doing the same thing this weekend. If the Packers beat the Bears, the NFC Central becomes extremely interesting as there will be two teams with 2-0 records: if they don't the winner of Minnesota v Detroit will lead the division. Despite Chicago reaching the Superbowl last season, this division is not a strong one - hence the bet on Green Bay.
The Raiders travel to Denver. Josh McCown is allegedly out for three weeks so I imagine Dante Culpepper will start, backed up by Andrew Walter and with newly signed JaMarcus Russell as the third option. Great. The Broncos by about a zillion.
Tampa, Jacksonville and Philadelphia all lost. The Buccs have a tough game against the Saints, the loser will be 0-2 and it'll be time for all those statistical cliches to appear on Tuesday. The Jaguars should beat Atlanta and I expect Philly to beat a Redskins team that only won in overtime last weekend.
There are a couple of other games worth keeping an eye on. The Cheating Yankee Bastards have San Diego at home but arguably the most intriguing game of the week is the Jets travelling to Baltimore. The loser drops to 0-2 and although Jets QB Chad Pennington will not be playing, there are all sorts of wild rumours that Ravens LB Ray Lewis may be out for the season. I'm conflicted by this. I have the Ravens D in my fantasy league (I also drafted the Packers D for 'insurance purposes') and hopefully Baltimore will play well - but not well enough - to stop the Steelers from winning the division and therefore preventing me from collecting my bet.
The Cheating Yankee Bastards got their reward (sorry, punishment) yesterday and now - not surprisingly - their Superbowl wins are under scrutiny.
In a parallel sporting universe, another cheating case came to something of a conclusion this week. This will probably be the first and only time that Formula One makes it into this blog but the McLaren team and the CYBs were both caught doing something they shouldn't in order to increase their 'competitive edge'. This is what can happen when you don't play nice.
Arguably the simplest way to increase your competitive edge is to win a game. So it's rather bemusing to report that Michigan plays Notre Dame later in a game that one of them has to win. Both teams are 0-2 and although I saw the Michigan/Oregon game last week I've not seen ND yet...but both teams may be really awful.
LSU welcomes Middle Tennessee. This could get ugly early but although they lost the Blue Raiders put 42 points on Louisville last week. LSU will still win and there will be a lot of points.
FSU is in Boulder, CO for a game at...well, Colorado. Both teams are 1-1 and this is Colorado's home opener.
I'm going to a wedding party tonight so the next post may well be on Monday. I've got a day off and I'm going to fritter it away ;-)
Oh yeah, England Egg Chasers were shut out to the tune of 33 points by Sarth Effrika in the Ruggery World Cup on Friday. I can gloat at the moment, but I wouldn't be surprised if Wales get stuffed by a similar score by Oz today.
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
The Hand Of Fate...
OK, here's what's happening with the NCAA bets so far:
LSU 1-0, beat Mississippi State 45-0. Looking good so far...facing 1-0 Virginia Tech in Baton Rouge this Saturday. 1-0 in SEC West. As the VTech game isn't a conference game, they could actually afford to drop this one, but as this could also be some sort of National Championship preview this is unlikely.
FSU 0-1, lost 14-28 to Clemson. 0-1 in conference games. Not too clever; they take on UAB in Tallahassee this weekend. This could get ugly quickly as FSU looks to rebound; I'll know more about where they are in the ACC after they play their next conference game (against North Carolina State on 6th October).
Michigan: 0-1, lost to Appalachian State. It's a damn good job that this wasn't a conference game and it's probably a damn good job that this weekend's opponents aren't in the Big Ten either. The bad news: Oregon beat Houston last weekend and Big Blue tumbled out of just about every poll in existence. Some more good news: the game is live on NASN at 8:30pm GMT Saturday night! Whooo! Alright! Rock and Roll etc.
The NFL starts properly this weekend too. There's too much going on already. Nothing for months then everything at once. Typical.
More to come, including a possible preview of a game I turned down tickets for: England v Israel this weekend in the qualifiers for Euro 2008.
And possibly some posh boy egg chasing, although New Zealand seem to have that tied up already and the tournament hasn't even started. Who they beat in the final would seem to be the more interesting prop.
Oh yeah, City are third in the Championship. It won't last, but so what.
LSU 1-0, beat Mississippi State 45-0. Looking good so far...facing 1-0 Virginia Tech in Baton Rouge this Saturday. 1-0 in SEC West. As the VTech game isn't a conference game, they could actually afford to drop this one, but as this could also be some sort of National Championship preview this is unlikely.
FSU 0-1, lost 14-28 to Clemson. 0-1 in conference games. Not too clever; they take on UAB in Tallahassee this weekend. This could get ugly quickly as FSU looks to rebound; I'll know more about where they are in the ACC after they play their next conference game (against North Carolina State on 6th October).
Michigan: 0-1, lost to Appalachian State. It's a damn good job that this wasn't a conference game and it's probably a damn good job that this weekend's opponents aren't in the Big Ten either. The bad news: Oregon beat Houston last weekend and Big Blue tumbled out of just about every poll in existence. Some more good news: the game is live on NASN at 8:30pm GMT Saturday night! Whooo! Alright! Rock and Roll etc.
The NFL starts properly this weekend too. There's too much going on already. Nothing for months then everything at once. Typical.
More to come, including a possible preview of a game I turned down tickets for: England v Israel this weekend in the qualifiers for Euro 2008.
And possibly some posh boy egg chasing, although New Zealand seem to have that tied up already and the tournament hasn't even started. Who they beat in the final would seem to be the more interesting prop.
Oh yeah, City are third in the Championship. It won't last, but so what.
Sunday, September 02, 2007
Early analysis: The Hand Of Fate
For a few glorious hours, City were top of The Championship after beating Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 thanks to a goal from Brian Wilson.
No, not that Brian Wilson.
I celebrated by sinking a few whilst watching College Game Day followed by Virginia Tech vs East Carolina (which pitched a very unconvincing VTech team against a scrappy and competitive ECU team) and then it was over. FSU doesn't play until Monday, but a convincing win for them and the hand of fate may have the upper hand.
Coventry (our next opponents, who will probably be looking for payback for knocking them out of last season's FA Cup) beat Preston 2-1 but we're third and we're undefeated.
Meanwhile, a long way away in Ann Arbor, MI a major as in MAJOR upset in College football was occurring. They really don't get any bigger than this: Appalachian State won at Michigan.
Here's some perspective for those of you that don't know what I'm talking about. App State is from what used to be called Division 1AA, but is now known as the 'Football Championship Subdivision' which is effectively the same sort of relationship to Division 1 as The Championship has towards the Premier League. I don't know if this rebranding was influenced by the round ball game in this country but it smells funny.
There's a big difference between 1A and FCS though...basically fewer scholarships, less money and a lot less media coverage. Also you can't be promoted or relegated from Division 1 although you can move up from FCS to 1A permanently but I'm not going to bore you with how or why.
All you need to know is that Appalachian State won consecutive FCS/Div1AA titles in the last two seasons and were getting $400,000 from Michigan for scheduling the game. Oh and I bet $10 that Michigan would win the Big Ten, whereas I might have been better off giving my money to a total stranger. Having said that, one game does not make a season and one non-conference defeat to a supposedly minor team doesn't actually change their chances of winning the conference. But they're going to be embarrassed when the polls come out next week (they were ranked number 5) and their next opponents (Oregon) beat Houston 48-27.
Autumn Thunder is probably the best Michigan blog to read right now as the others are in some kind of denial phase...or still out drinking themselves stupid because it's not even 2:00am in that area yet.
More later but remember this, sports fans: although headline grabbing 'David beats Goliath' stories are part of all games, we've all suffered really awful losses at some time or another.
Like being beaten in the Play Off Final by Brighton, which makes being top of Division 2 (the highest league place for nearly three decades) even for a few hours worth all the pain, heartache and frustration seem worth it.
BTW, Bama won (they beat their FCS opponents) and ND lost (at home to Georgia Tech by 30 points), which is what I thought might happen. UNLV won as well! First away win for three years!
No, not that Brian Wilson.I celebrated by sinking a few whilst watching College Game Day followed by Virginia Tech vs East Carolina (which pitched a very unconvincing VTech team against a scrappy and competitive ECU team) and then it was over. FSU doesn't play until Monday, but a convincing win for them and the hand of fate may have the upper hand.
Coventry (our next opponents, who will probably be looking for payback for knocking them out of last season's FA Cup) beat Preston 2-1 but we're third and we're undefeated.
Meanwhile, a long way away in Ann Arbor, MI a major as in MAJOR upset in College football was occurring. They really don't get any bigger than this: Appalachian State won at Michigan.
Here's some perspective for those of you that don't know what I'm talking about. App State is from what used to be called Division 1AA, but is now known as the 'Football Championship Subdivision' which is effectively the same sort of relationship to Division 1 as The Championship has towards the Premier League. I don't know if this rebranding was influenced by the round ball game in this country but it smells funny.
There's a big difference between 1A and FCS though...basically fewer scholarships, less money and a lot less media coverage. Also you can't be promoted or relegated from Division 1 although you can move up from FCS to 1A permanently but I'm not going to bore you with how or why.
All you need to know is that Appalachian State won consecutive FCS/Div1AA titles in the last two seasons and were getting $400,000 from Michigan for scheduling the game. Oh and I bet $10 that Michigan would win the Big Ten, whereas I might have been better off giving my money to a total stranger. Having said that, one game does not make a season and one non-conference defeat to a supposedly minor team doesn't actually change their chances of winning the conference. But they're going to be embarrassed when the polls come out next week (they were ranked number 5) and their next opponents (Oregon) beat Houston 48-27.
Autumn Thunder is probably the best Michigan blog to read right now as the others are in some kind of denial phase...or still out drinking themselves stupid because it's not even 2:00am in that area yet.
More later but remember this, sports fans: although headline grabbing 'David beats Goliath' stories are part of all games, we've all suffered really awful losses at some time or another.
Like being beaten in the Play Off Final by Brighton, which makes being top of Division 2 (the highest league place for nearly three decades) even for a few hours worth all the pain, heartache and frustration seem worth it.
BTW, Bama won (they beat their FCS opponents) and ND lost (at home to Georgia Tech by 30 points), which is what I thought might happen. UNLV won as well! First away win for three years!
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Everything is back!
Whooooooooooo! I'm excited!!!
OK, here's the City situation. Two league games, two points, three goals...and yesterday morning I was in a queue for tickets for the second round Carling Cup game against Premier League leaders Manchester City.
Yes, that sentence is correct. Looking back on the posts from last season and looking at what's already happening it really is another world in the Championship. We've got England U21 v Romania U21 at the Gate tonight (more Sky money), the Man City game is on Sky (more money) as are the home games against Sheffield United and the away game at Sheffield Wednesday. Even more TV money.
Without wanting to sound triumphalist (remembering what happened last time we were at this level), this is some kind of reward for all those lack luster performances, all those rubbish games, just missing out on promotion and losing in the play offs. This is such a wonderful opportunity for everyone connected with the club.
And now...Madama Zaza presents her NFL Divisional and College Football predictions!
(First price is willhill.com, second price is bet365)
AFC East: New England Patriots (1/4 & 2/9)
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (11/4 & 12/5) or Baltimore Ravens (13/8*)
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (4/1*)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (9/4 or 2/1 ) or San Diego Chargers (4/7 or 8/13)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (6/4 or 7/4)
NFC North: Green Bay Packers (11/2*)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6/1)
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks (11/8 or 7/5) or San Francisco 49ers (2/1 or 11/4)
Some surprises there! I like the Eagles at and the 49ers prices but the Chargers' price looks silly and doesn't take into account Norv Turner taking over from Marty Schottenheimer. Signficantly, bet365 hasn't got a line for the NFC South...perhaps because nobody knows who the Falcons quarterback will be. More of that another day.
As for College, willhill.com will only take bets on the BCS Championship whereas bet365 will let you punt on individual conferences. So here's MZ's tips:
Big XII: Oklahoma (9/4) (key date: 13th October - OU v Missouri)
Pac 10: USC (2/5)
SEC: LSU (5/4)
Big X: Michigan (2/1)
ACC: Virginia Tech (11/5) or Florida State (2/1) (Nov 10th: FSU at VT)
The Whole Thing: USC
Phew. I need a lie down!
OK, here's the City situation. Two league games, two points, three goals...and yesterday morning I was in a queue for tickets for the second round Carling Cup game against Premier League leaders Manchester City.
Yes, that sentence is correct. Looking back on the posts from last season and looking at what's already happening it really is another world in the Championship. We've got England U21 v Romania U21 at the Gate tonight (more Sky money), the Man City game is on Sky (more money) as are the home games against Sheffield United and the away game at Sheffield Wednesday. Even more TV money.
Without wanting to sound triumphalist (remembering what happened last time we were at this level), this is some kind of reward for all those lack luster performances, all those rubbish games, just missing out on promotion and losing in the play offs. This is such a wonderful opportunity for everyone connected with the club.
And now...Madama Zaza presents her NFL Divisional and College Football predictions!
(First price is willhill.com, second price is bet365)
AFC East: New England Patriots (1/4 & 2/9)
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (11/4 & 12/5) or Baltimore Ravens (13/8*)
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (4/1*)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (9/4 or 2/1 ) or San Diego Chargers (4/7 or 8/13)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (6/4 or 7/4)
NFC North: Green Bay Packers (11/2*)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6/1)
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks (11/8 or 7/5) or San Francisco 49ers (2/1 or 11/4)
Some surprises there! I like the Eagles at and the 49ers prices but the Chargers' price looks silly and doesn't take into account Norv Turner taking over from Marty Schottenheimer. Signficantly, bet365 hasn't got a line for the NFC South...perhaps because nobody knows who the Falcons quarterback will be. More of that another day.
As for College, willhill.com will only take bets on the BCS Championship whereas bet365 will let you punt on individual conferences. So here's MZ's tips:
Big XII: Oklahoma (9/4) (key date: 13th October - OU v Missouri)
Pac 10: USC (2/5)
SEC: LSU (5/4)
Big X: Michigan (2/1)
ACC: Virginia Tech (11/5) or Florida State (2/1) (Nov 10th: FSU at VT)
The Whole Thing: USC
Phew. I need a lie down!
Sunday, July 08, 2007
The Sprout has landed
Ivor Sprout arrived recently and I forgot to tell you. He's fast, has a bit of a temper and scores goals. He also has two songs:
'He's here, he's there, he's fukc1n9 everywhere' and 'I can't help falling in love with Sproule'.
500k according to rumours. If he can score the winner against Cardiff, he will walk with the gods.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Summer's here...so it must be time for...
Poker and baseball, two of the activities I have something of an interest in.
To be honest with myself, the only reason that I've got back into them is because of a lack of anything happening on the football front. There are the usual daft transfer rumours fuelled back the inventiveness of journalists - on one level, Barcelona are supposed to be interested in Arsene Wenger and on another level, City are interested in Hibs and Northern Ireland striker Ivan Sproule.
Ivan Sproule, Ivan Sproule, Ivan, Ivan Sproule,
When gets the boule, he scores a goule...
Obviously I'll let you know if we buy The Sproulemeister, but this is not important now apart from the fact that sightings of Norn Iron replica shirts at The Gate might go up.
Fantasy baseball is going well...too well. I've been top of my Brits only league since St George's Day and currently have a 19 point lead. I'm not going to bore you with the details, but let's just say that spending far too much time and effort on scouting players is paying off. It's fun, it keeps me off the streets and out of the pub etc.
Poker is another matter though. I don't play that often (it's been a while since I played a live home game) but I like to mess about on line - I've been getting back into it recently, but only when I can afford the time.
That's actually a lesson I learned the semi hard way - I probably played cards a little too often at school when I should have been concentrating on my A-levels but hindsight is always a blessing isn't it? Looking back on several periods of my life I've always enjoyed playing cards. I'd love to be good at chess, but I don't have the application for it; draughts is fun but too much like snap...so poker it is then.
Here's what I've been up to recently. I've been blagging on freerolls as I'm too tight to part with real money (although I do play with real money when the mood takes me) and in keeping with my overall description of 'marginally profitable' I've done relatively well. For example, on Sunday I came fourth in a loyalty points freeroll at Pokerworld (admittedly not one of the bigger sites) and I had a funny but rather manic session on Monday where I played simultaneous tournaments at Pokerworld and bet365. So basically, I'm looking for low traffic sites that offer freerolls with small player bases right now. I will report back with any findings, but I finished just outside the scoring positions on Pokerworld (14th of 132) and got bored and went all in to finish off my bet365 session finishing 199th of 3587 players.
The reason why I got bored? I knew I wasn't going to be placed, it was getting late and it was my turn to make the tea.
That's pretty hardcore. Not.
Whether it's deciding on which hat to wear, raising trips on the turn or leaving the table for a comped tuna sandwich, poker is all about decisions.
To be honest with myself, the only reason that I've got back into them is because of a lack of anything happening on the football front. There are the usual daft transfer rumours fuelled back the inventiveness of journalists - on one level, Barcelona are supposed to be interested in Arsene Wenger and on another level, City are interested in Hibs and Northern Ireland striker Ivan Sproule.
Ivan Sproule, Ivan Sproule, Ivan, Ivan Sproule,When gets the boule, he scores a goule...
Obviously I'll let you know if we buy The Sproulemeister, but this is not important now apart from the fact that sightings of Norn Iron replica shirts at The Gate might go up.
Fantasy baseball is going well...too well. I've been top of my Brits only league since St George's Day and currently have a 19 point lead. I'm not going to bore you with the details, but let's just say that spending far too much time and effort on scouting players is paying off. It's fun, it keeps me off the streets and out of the pub etc.
Poker is another matter though. I don't play that often (it's been a while since I played a live home game) but I like to mess about on line - I've been getting back into it recently, but only when I can afford the time.
That's actually a lesson I learned the semi hard way - I probably played cards a little too often at school when I should have been concentrating on my A-levels but hindsight is always a blessing isn't it? Looking back on several periods of my life I've always enjoyed playing cards. I'd love to be good at chess, but I don't have the application for it; draughts is fun but too much like snap...so poker it is then.
Here's what I've been up to recently. I've been blagging on freerolls as I'm too tight to part with real money (although I do play with real money when the mood takes me) and in keeping with my overall description of 'marginally profitable' I've done relatively well. For example, on Sunday I came fourth in a loyalty points freeroll at Pokerworld (admittedly not one of the bigger sites) and I had a funny but rather manic session on Monday where I played simultaneous tournaments at Pokerworld and bet365. So basically, I'm looking for low traffic sites that offer freerolls with small player bases right now. I will report back with any findings, but I finished just outside the scoring positions on Pokerworld (14th of 132) and got bored and went all in to finish off my bet365 session finishing 199th of 3587 players.
The reason why I got bored? I knew I wasn't going to be placed, it was getting late and it was my turn to make the tea.
That's pretty hardcore. Not.
Whether it's deciding on which hat to wear, raising trips on the turn or leaving the table for a comped tuna sandwich, poker is all about decisions.Monday, June 04, 2007
The Dark Time Begins
Football is as good as over. There are a couple of European Nations Cup qualifiers in the next ten days but that's it for a few weeks. Next season has already begun: I’ve already renewed my season ticket. Not surprisingly, it cost more than last season but I'm not going to moan about it.
Anyway, here are some round ball loose ends.
What a dilemma. If they lose, I'm happy. If they win, I get a tenner.
Footage from ESPN Deportes (check out the ticker...)
Sunday, May 06, 2007
Coming Soon: The Championship
We beat Rotherham 3-1, Forest only drew with Crewe - they finished fourth after Blackpool smashed Swansea 6-3 at the Liberty Stadium.
So...we're up. We're in the Championship next season. We did it! Cue Jeff Stelling!
Much more later, but my Friday post was almost ridiculously spot on:
'Three of the four goals Rotherham have scored in their last eight games came in the first 20 minutes, including two in the first ten minutes. If Rotherham are going to score, it'll be early on (ie before ten minutes) or - and this is a particular City weakness in the last eight games - just before half time (three of the six goals conceded at home in the last eight games have been in this period). If Rotherham don't score early on, the chances are that they won't score at all.'
Not quite accurate - Rotherham got their goal in the 58th minute. Now for the spooky bit... If the patterns within Rotherham's away form and City's home form occur tomorrow, City should probably be a goal up half way through the first half (first fifteen minutes seems like a good time), with the possibility of a second before the end of the half. It then becomes more likely that there might be a third before the hour.
David Noble scored in the eighth and 44th minutes. Alex Russell got the third in the 55th minute. Not only was I excited about the way the game was going anyway, I also couldn't believe just how well it went to form.
Of course, the other prediction that was easier to make but still pretty accurate was the one where after the game I meet a couple of mates outside Quba Ice on North Street, drink a lot of San Miguel and sing songs.
Quba Ice before the game and before the urban bullfighting with cars and buses that took place later.There will be more to come...but here's a really good photomontage of a very memorable season to enjoy.
Friday, May 04, 2007
Nearly there...still...
OK, we lost at Millwall and Forest won. So here's the deal:
We beat Rotherham tomorrow and we're up. Forest have to play Crewe at home in what will be Dario Gradi's last game as Crewe manager.
Beat Forest and you'll never need to pay for anything in Bristol again.
But here's the interesting one: there always seems to be one team that comes from absolutely nowhere and this season it's Blackpool. If both City and Forest lose tomorrow, they'll go up.
Here's some stats to mull over:
City v Rotherham
Over the last eight homes, City's record is:
P8 (LOL!) W4 D2 L2 F10 A7 Pts 14
City failed to score twice in those games, against Swansea and Cheltenham. We've kept cleans sheets in half of our last eight home games as well, which is a stat that isn't being as emphasised as it should be. Going back over all 22 home league games this season, our scoring pattern looks like this:
Goals scored:
0 three times - two draws and a defeat
1 - nine times
2 - seven times, most recently in the win over Yeovil
3 - three times - three wins, although the last time we scored three goals at home was in January.
I won't bore you with the details, but the pattern over last eight games looks remarkably similar to that.
In contrast, Rotherham's last eight aways go like this:
W1 D2 L5 F4 A10 Pts 5.
They've failed to score in five of their last eight away games, the last time anyone failed to score against them was when they won at Brentford in March. Their last away clean sheet before that was against Brighton in February, but having seen Brighton in February, that doesn't surprise me.
So trying to be as objective as possible (once again), Rotherham 0 is not entirely out of the question.
So it looks like 1-0 (6/1 at William Hill) or 2-0 (5/1) would probably be realistic. Which would - of course - be enough.
Key points
Three of the four goals Rotherham have scored in their last eight games came in the first 20 minutes, including two in the first ten minutes. If Rotherham are going to score, it'll be early on (ie before ten minutes) or - and this is a particular City weakness in the last eight games - just before half time (three of the six goals conceded at home in the last eight games have been in this period). If Rotherham don't score early on, the chances are that they won't score at all.
If the patterns within Rotherham's away form and City's home form occur tomorrow, City should probably be a goal up half way through the first half (first fifteen minutes seems like a good time), with the possibility of a second before the end of the half. It then becomes more likely that there might be a third before the hour.
So...City need to score early and make sure they don't let Rotherham back in the game before half time.
In other news...
Leeds United will be playing in the third tier of English Football for the first time EVER...which is still frankly astonishing, especially as their decline was so dramatic. The Times has a brief timeline of how it all happened.
The 'All English' Champions League Final will have to wait another day. Not bothered about who wins in Athens in a couple of weeks although I'd pay to see Gennaro Gattuso and Craig Bellamy have a pop at each other.
You just know that Gattuso would have had something to say if necessary.
Don't you just know that Gennaro and Craig were meant for each other...
I'm going to have to change my desktop wallpaper, as Randy Moss was traded to the Patriots on Sunday. I can't bring myself to wish him good luck, so I hope it ends really badly for him.
If you clicked on the link above, you'd also have read that Troy Smith ended up being taken by the Ravens in the fifth round. Well fancy that. I didn't think that he looked anything like a first rounder and I said so:
'I can't remember which one of the ABC/ESPN commentary team (Brent Musberger, Bob Davie and Kirk Herbstreit) was raving about Smith being a first round draft pick now, but it strikes me that this is an extremely premature assessment. There's no doubting that he has the ability, but as I mentioned above, he will need work on handling pressure situations and there are accuracy and consistency issues. He was outstanding in the first half of the game, but dropped off dramatically in the second.'
Madame Zaza, top pro prospect evaluator.
I have no idea what to do with my Randy Moss replica jersey now...perhaps I'll order a brand new JaMarcus Russell one.
The Oakland pick that I'm really intrigued by is that of Michael Bush of Louisville in the fourth round (incidentally, the round that formed part of the Moss trade); way back in November I wished him good luck after he broke his leg in the game against Kentucky. Now almost six months later he's a Raider.
There will be more. There always is.
We beat Rotherham tomorrow and we're up. Forest have to play Crewe at home in what will be Dario Gradi's last game as Crewe manager.
Beat Forest and you'll never need to pay for anything in Bristol again.But here's the interesting one: there always seems to be one team that comes from absolutely nowhere and this season it's Blackpool. If both City and Forest lose tomorrow, they'll go up.
Here's some stats to mull over:
City v Rotherham
Over the last eight homes, City's record is:
P8 (LOL!) W4 D2 L2 F10 A7 Pts 14
City failed to score twice in those games, against Swansea and Cheltenham. We've kept cleans sheets in half of our last eight home games as well, which is a stat that isn't being as emphasised as it should be. Going back over all 22 home league games this season, our scoring pattern looks like this:
Goals scored:
0 three times - two draws and a defeat
1 - nine times
2 - seven times, most recently in the win over Yeovil
3 - three times - three wins, although the last time we scored three goals at home was in January.
I won't bore you with the details, but the pattern over last eight games looks remarkably similar to that.
In contrast, Rotherham's last eight aways go like this:
W1 D2 L5 F4 A10 Pts 5.
They've failed to score in five of their last eight away games, the last time anyone failed to score against them was when they won at Brentford in March. Their last away clean sheet before that was against Brighton in February, but having seen Brighton in February, that doesn't surprise me.
So trying to be as objective as possible (once again), Rotherham 0 is not entirely out of the question.
So it looks like 1-0 (6/1 at William Hill) or 2-0 (5/1) would probably be realistic. Which would - of course - be enough.
Key points
Three of the four goals Rotherham have scored in their last eight games came in the first 20 minutes, including two in the first ten minutes. If Rotherham are going to score, it'll be early on (ie before ten minutes) or - and this is a particular City weakness in the last eight games - just before half time (three of the six goals conceded at home in the last eight games have been in this period). If Rotherham don't score early on, the chances are that they won't score at all.
If the patterns within Rotherham's away form and City's home form occur tomorrow, City should probably be a goal up half way through the first half (first fifteen minutes seems like a good time), with the possibility of a second before the end of the half. It then becomes more likely that there might be a third before the hour.
So...City need to score early and make sure they don't let Rotherham back in the game before half time.
In other news...
Leeds United will be playing in the third tier of English Football for the first time EVER...which is still frankly astonishing, especially as their decline was so dramatic. The Times has a brief timeline of how it all happened.
The 'All English' Champions League Final will have to wait another day. Not bothered about who wins in Athens in a couple of weeks although I'd pay to see Gennaro Gattuso and Craig Bellamy have a pop at each other.
You just know that Gattuso would have had something to say if necessary.Don't you just know that Gennaro and Craig were meant for each other...I'm going to have to change my desktop wallpaper, as Randy Moss was traded to the Patriots on Sunday. I can't bring myself to wish him good luck, so I hope it ends really badly for him.
If you clicked on the link above, you'd also have read that Troy Smith ended up being taken by the Ravens in the fifth round. Well fancy that. I didn't think that he looked anything like a first rounder and I said so:
'I can't remember which one of the ABC/ESPN commentary team (Brent Musberger, Bob Davie and Kirk Herbstreit) was raving about Smith being a first round draft pick now, but it strikes me that this is an extremely premature assessment. There's no doubting that he has the ability, but as I mentioned above, he will need work on handling pressure situations and there are accuracy and consistency issues. He was outstanding in the first half of the game, but dropped off dramatically in the second.'
Madame Zaza, top pro prospect evaluator.
I have no idea what to do with my Randy Moss replica jersey now...perhaps I'll order a brand new JaMarcus Russell one.
The Oakland pick that I'm really intrigued by is that of Michael Bush of Louisville in the fourth round (incidentally, the round that formed part of the Moss trade); way back in November I wished him good luck after he broke his leg in the game against Kentucky. Now almost six months later he's a Raider.
There will be more. There always is.
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