It's Raining Because It's July

What a mess. A friend of mine is in Kephalonia, where it's 40 degrees: he sent me a photo to prove it so I sent him a photo of a puddle.

It's raining, so it's football weather. I'm officially in pre-season punting mode, the delights of some of the more arcane Nordic competitions are the out of season proving grounds for my so-called system, which at the moment is primarily concerned with bankroll building rather than anything else.

The problem at the moment is that there aren't any European leagues with reasonable sample sizes, although they're all a couple of games away. A further problem with the Russian premier is that UEFA Cup Winners Zenit St Petersburg have played fewer games than anyone else, presumably due to being involved in that competition.

However, it's proving an education. I've learned that St Patrick's Athletic of the Eircom Premier League play at the Stadium of Light in Inchicore (a Dublin suburb) and that Falkenbergs of Sweden play in yellow.

The results of baseball's All Star Game ballot have almost been finalised and I've got a few players from my fantasy roster in there.

AL pitchers:
Justin Duscherer (Oakland)
Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
Francisco Rodriguez, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders (Angels)

NL outfielders:
Geovany Soto (Cubs)
Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
Ryan Braun (Brewers)
Reserve: Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)

NL pitchers:
Danny Haren (Diamondbacks)
Aaron Cook (Rockies)

Not a bad haul considering I was in last place for quite some time.

'Be the hero, Steve...'

Were the words I said to myself as Steve Brooker entered the fray on Saturday afternoon. 72 minutes gone, 1-1. As predicted, Dele Adebola scored the first, but Norwich equalised through Darren Huckerby and to be honest I was sitting in the Atyeo thinking we needed a bloody miracle.

Three minutes of injury time on the board, into the third minute, free kick to City, Brooker scores his first goal for City since the 3-3 draw with Coventry City in the cup in January 2007.

City 2, Norwich 1. Top of the Championship again.

Coventry City...Coventry City...Coventry City...

In a curious parallel, Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals (and the Arlen Spectres) hit a walk off home run to win the game against Atlanta on Sunday night, the first win at the new stadium in DC and the first Spectre home run of the season. Different games, thousands of miles apart, last minute dramatic finishes...happy, happy, happy. Check out Zimmerman in the Nationals road uniform...looks familiar, doesn't it?

And They're Off...

The A's split the Opening Series in Japan with the Sox, the Spectres are currently joint third.

City remain second despite losing to the Huns on Saturday. We've got Nardge Stee on Saturday, who last won down here in April 1980 during the last days of Division 1...to put it another way, when this was number one in the hit parade....



Which was replaced with this almost immediately...



Ah, those were the days.

Not much change in the top six apart from Plymouth have made their way back into it. There's a four point gap between them and WBA, but then four clubs immediately behind Gargoyle who could still make the playoffs.

T6H2H as follows:

WBA P9 W5 D2 L2 F19 A10 Pts 17
City P9 W3 D4 L2 F9 A10 Pts 13
Stoke P9 W2 D6 L2 F11 A9 Pts 12
Plymouth P10 W3 D3 L4 F13 A16 Pts 12
Hull P9 W2 D3 L4 F9 A12 Pts 9
Watford P8 W1 D4 L3 F3 A7 Pts 7

Remaining games:

Hull v Watford (this Saturday)
WBA v Watford (12th April)
Stoke v Bristol City (19th April)

Hull v Watford looks like a draw to me, although the Tigers haven't beaten Watford at home since 1978. Hull haven't beaten any of the top six at home this season, Watford haven't beaten any of the top six away in 2007/2008. Having said that, although Hull's recent home form has been pretty impressive, they've only played one team in the top half of the table in the last six games (Burnley). Watford have drawn five of their last six aways including games against City and Plymouth.

The top four have got a mixed bag this weekend. I'll post an in depth profile before our game on Friday or Saturday and let's assume that WBA will beat Colchester at The Hawthorns, but both Plymouth and Stoke are away, to Coventry and Sheffield Wednesday respectively.

Coventry are fearsome at home right now. Apart from being smashed 5-0 by WBA in the Cup in February the last time they lost - and conceded a goal at Highfield Road in the league - was in mid January. Plymouth's recent away record isn't too shabby but they may be up against it this time - this tends to be a series where the home team wins.

Sheffield Wednesday v Stoke has all the makings of an epic. Stoke have a one point lead over City but the Wendies are in the last relegation spot. They've lost two of their last six homes (WBA and Ipswich) whereas the Stokies have lost three of their last six aways. Wednesday haven't beaten Stoke at home this century, but two of the last three games have been draws.

While I was looking all this up, something struck me. If City go up, it may be because of some help from Coventry City. Why? Stay tuned.

This Year's Model

Barry Bonds has exactly the same birthday as me and my team was known as the Bristol Bondsmen for several years until he was shown the door by the San Francisco Giants at the end of last season...I won't go into too many details, but at one point I was going to call the team the Balco Bondsmen.

So it only seems fitting that my fantasy baseball team is renamed and after...well, minutes of deliberation...I give you The Arlen Spectres.

That's the infield done.

But lo - it's actually a triple entendre! A 6-4-3 if you will. So if Boomhauer, Hank, Dale and Bill are the players, here's the manager...

OK, a quick bit of background: Senator Arlen Spector (R, Pennsylvania) has been the most vocal critic of the Spygate Scandal that ran during the American football season. I'm not going to elaborate on Spygate because I already made my feelings known (scroll down to 'Beating Charstards') and the football gods got their revenge by letting the Giants win the Superbowl.

Of course, every sporting franchise needs some kind of evil GM (an Al Davros/Ge*rge Stoneburner type) and here's the third layer of...irony...nah...errr...'entendre'...oh I don't know...but here he is, the head of SPECTOR, Ernst Stavro Blofeld.

So there we go...my team has cartoon players, a republican senator as manager and a Bond supervillain as GM. I'm very happy with that as I try not to take this stuff seriously but this year I am a defending champion rather than trying not to finish last. Let's take a look at the pitchers who are going to help me defend my title - outfielders to follow.

Pitchers

I didn't plan my draft with as much precision as I did last season, so if anything I'm a little short on pitchers. Three starters, three closers so at least it's symmetrical.

2007 Line:

Collectively they worked under 1400 innings (good) for 61 wins, 115 saves, 800 strikeouts with a combined ERA of 3.45 and a combined WHIP of 1.21. I must admit, that looks a little short on wins right now. As for projected numbers, Baseball Prospectus sees a drop of across the board so I think I probably need another starter at some point. When we get to outfielders you'll be able to see that I've plenty of trade bait.

Starters:

CC Sabathia (Indians) - back for another year of 200+ innings!

Cole Hamels (Phillies)

Danny Haren (Diamondbacks)

Closers:

Francisco Rodriguez (Angels) - did OK with the Angels I had last year (Guerrero, Escobar, Lackey, Kendrick and Cabrera), probably a good idea there isn't a post season in my league.

Mariano Rivera (Yankees, below) - cartoon character players, republican manager, evil GM and a Yankees closer!

Joe Borowski (Indians) - here's the risky one. Loads of saves, but dreadful ERA - he was actually on my Anti Watch list last season. Looking forward to seeing some Tribe games where CC starts and Joe finishes.

More later, thank you for reading...

Ups & Downs

A mixed bag being a red last weekend. City lost and are now second on goal difference to Stoke, who drew 0-0 at Watford. Having spent a lot of time hanging about in the rain I managed to pick up a stinking cold which I'm currently suffering from. I managed to pick up a ticket for the trip to Cardiff next weekend.

I'm culturally confused at the best of times, but my negative feelings about a football defeat were offset by a Grand Slam win for Wales. So it's ironic that travelling to the town where my grandmother and father were born to see the team that my grandfather followed and where my sister and brother in law live is such a pain in the backside...purely because I support Bristol City.

Of course, there's a lot more to it than that but it's bloody silly nonetheless. I'm sure I can't be the only City fan who is Anglo-Welsh.

Summer's coming. I drafted my baseball team on Sunday: more details coming, probably tomorrow.

Freerolls and other thoughts

Without giving anything away, I've been making some on line poker observations recently.

I had the most success at at small stakes pot limit tables. That shouldn't come as a complete shock. I also won some cash at a new player free roll.

Worst: the William Hill free rolls. The game speed is glacial and the rewards are so low as to be not worth the effort. I've been scraping into the top 30% of players by doing extremely little and to be honest there have been a couple of times when I've invoked the mercy rule and bet wildly on hands that aren't worth it just to finish the game.

Seems to me that free rolls generally are a bit of a crap shoot...errr...I hope you see what I mean there. I'm thinking of doing an experiment to see how far I can get with auto fold/muck switched on, although to be fair to those players who enjoy participating in them it's probably better if I don't play free rolls at all. To paraphrase a football manager whose name escapes me, you get nowt for coming 489th.

Bit of an update: I had another incredibly small scale success in a $1 Buy In Bet365 No Limit Tournament. I placed 40th of 434 and won a massive $5.04, but it was the most exhilarating £2.50 I've ever won. I went all in a couple of times when I was about to crash out, won the biggest pot in my short online poker history ($13.2k) and generally had a whale of a time, including a 20 minute dinner break when the Chinese takeaway arrived. More than made up for the moaning about stuff elsewhere.

Something I would strongly recommend: try to keep accurate stats of how you do in any session you play even if it's play money. I've been doing this with my sessions and to be honest I've made a pretty poor job of it - to the extent that I'm going to junk what I've already done. I might even stop recording my progress in free rolls as I'm obviously not taking them seriously at all.

Fantasy baseball is still going well, I'm still first (I've been top since St George's Day or April 23rd if you don't know when that is) and a rather ridiculous 33% of my roster have been voted to appear for their respective leagues in the annual All Star game. Here are two blokes from my fantasy team that haven't been:

Matt Holliday OF Colorado Rockies

Kelvim Escobar SP Los Angeles Angels

Basically, Holliday is playing for an average team in the less spectacular National League. All his key stats are better than a lot of the players from the American League but it's probably because he doesn't play for one of the glamour teams that he's not been selected by the fickle American public. If he keeps this up, that will change.

I'm not sure why Escobar wasn't picked. He has similar stats to Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers but I think the problem might be because he's had a stint on the Disabled List and - unlike Verlander - he hasn't had a no hitter this year. All he did (on the same day as Verlander got his no hitter) was strike out 14 batters in six innings. I imagine the US press went nuts for Verlander and Escobar's achievement was lost in the shuffle.

Ah well. They're both making more money than I'll ever see, so that's probably some consolation.

Summer's here...so it must be time for...

Poker and baseball, two of the activities I have something of an interest in.

To be honest with myself, the only reason that I've got back into them is because of a lack of anything happening on the football front. There are the usual daft transfer rumours fuelled back the inventiveness of journalists - on one level, Barcelona are supposed to be interested in Arsene Wenger and on another level, City are interested in Hibs and Northern Ireland striker Ivan Sproule.

Ivan Sproule, Ivan Sproule, Ivan, Ivan Sproule,
When gets the boule, he scores a goule...

Obviously I'll let you know if we buy The Sproulemeister, but this is not important now apart from the fact that sightings of Norn Iron replica shirts at The Gate might go up.

Fantasy baseball is going well...too well. I've been top of my Brits only league since St George's Day and currently have a 19 point lead. I'm not going to bore you with the details, but let's just say that spending far too much time and effort on scouting players is paying off. It's fun, it keeps me off the streets and out of the pub etc.

Poker is another matter though. I don't play that often (it's been a while since I played a live home game) but I like to mess about on line - I've been getting back into it recently, but only when I can afford the time.

That's actually a lesson I learned the semi hard way - I probably played cards a little too often at school when I should have been concentrating on my A-levels but hindsight is always a blessing isn't it? Looking back on several periods of my life I've always enjoyed playing cards. I'd love to be good at chess, but I don't have the application for it; draughts is fun but too much like snap...so poker it is then.

Here's what I've been up to recently. I've been blagging on freerolls as I'm too tight to part with real money (although I do play with real money when the mood takes me) and in keeping with my overall description of 'marginally profitable' I've done relatively well. For example, on Sunday I came fourth in a loyalty points freeroll at Pokerworld (admittedly not one of the bigger sites) and I had a funny but rather manic session on Monday where I played simultaneous tournaments at Pokerworld and bet365. So basically, I'm looking for low traffic sites that offer freerolls with small player bases right now. I will report back with any findings, but I finished just outside the scoring positions on Pokerworld (14th of 132) and got bored and went all in to finish off my bet365 session finishing 199th of 3587 players.

The reason why I got bored? I knew I wasn't going to be placed, it was getting late and it was my turn to make the tea.

That's pretty hardcore. Not.

Whether it's deciding on which hat to wear, raising trips on the turn or leaving the table for a comped tuna sandwich, poker is all about decisions.