MSK goes deep undercover

If you think the referees in the World Wrestling Federation are bad...

I have just returned from one of my rare undercover missions...the last one was at St Andrews on 1998, this one was at the Withdean Stadium in Brighton and was considerably less fraught.

More later, but it's always illuminating to sit with the opposition to see what your team is really like, especially when Mr Mike Riley is the referee.

Oh and when Baz Savage plays for the opposition and seems to be a fan favourite. Brighton isn't a football town.

It'll be 100 years in 2009

Since City reached the Cup Final; and it's a record that won't be broken this season either. We're out: we lost on penalties to a very ordinary Middlesbrough side who will now face WBA on Saturday. We travel to Blackpool, who also got knocked this evening by Norwich.

Madame Zaza predicts: Middlesbrough won't win the FA Cup. In a bizarre Zaza-esque moment (bizazarre?) I put a couple of quid on Mark Viduka scoring the first goal tonight at 4/1: I got my stake back as he was somewhat hilariously listed as a non-runner.

Oh Bloody Hell

Basso sent off, some twat takes a swing at Bradley Orr and we get a totally undeserved point against a decent team that tried to kill us off after we'd let them go ahead and we went down to ten men. For 80 odd minutes I was wishing that this was all over and baseball had started.

Still, Middlesbrough lost 3-0 to Chelsea, which made up for Madame Zaza's complete failure this afternoon. Bad Madame Zaza.

City Welcome Former Triple League Champions...

...Huddersfield Town.

Herbert Chapman - the Knute Rockne of English Association Football.*

Here's the top of Division Three:

1. Scunthorpe P31 Pts 58
2. Oldham P30 Pts 55
3. Forest P30 Pts 53
4. City P30 Pts 52
5. Yeovil P30 Pts 51
6. Swansea P30 Pts 47
...and todays opponents:

11. Huddersfield P31 Pts 41 (six off the playoffs)

We've actually dropped six points in the last two games, both single goal defeats at home to Cheltenham Town and away to Scunthorpe United (on live TV) but nobody seems to have made the decisive move yet.

Here's the top six mini league:

Oldham P8 W4 D2 L2 F10 A5 Pts 14
Forest P8 W4 D1 L3 F6 A12 Pts 13
Scunthorpe P7 W3 D2 L2 F10 A5 Pts 11
City P7 W2 D2 L3 F5 A5 Pts 8
Yeovil P6 W2 D1 L3 F4 A6 Pts 7
Swansea P6 W0 D4 L2 F3 A7 Pts 4

Remaining Games:

Today:
Swansea v Oldham

20th February
Swansea v Scunthorpe

24th February
Yeovil v Swansea

10th March
Scunthorpe v Nottingham Forest

31st March
City v Nottingham Forest
Oldham v Yeovil
6th April
Scunthorpe v Yeovil

7th April
City v Swansea

14th April
City v Yeovil

So basically City's entire season will probably come down to three consecutive home games against opponents currently in the top six. The good news is that we've completed our away programme against them (a win, a draw and three defeats) and we have the most home games left against the other five teams.

And I'll be missing the Forest game because one of my sisters in law is getting married on March 31st - in CARDIFF - but I will be making the trip down to Brighton on 24th February courtesy of my brother in law Phil.

Here are the previews:

City v Huddersfield

City haven't won at home in the league since coming from behind to beat Tranmere 3-2 on January 13th, but to put that into some kind of context we've only had one home league game since then (last Wednesday v Cheltenham) and two cup games (Middlesbrough in the FA Cup and Brighton in the JPT). Our form in the last six homes is four wins, a draw and a defeat, nine for and six against.

The Town Terriers have won once, drawn twice and lost three times in their last six league aways, scoring three times and letting in eight. Not particularly good; Madame Zaza thinks it's a City home win - possibly by two goals - and City will take the lead!

Swansea v Oldham

A draw at 11/5 with William Hill.

I'm off down the Gate, good shooting!

* Wow...that never occured to me before, but it's a good comparison. I must investigate!

Colts Win The Superbowl

Peyton Manning: MVP.

Despite an electrifying opening kickoff return for a touchdown by Devin Hester, the Indianapolis Colts won Superbowl 41 by 29-17 in Miami last night. The score was arguably a reflection of the difference between the two teams, but a closer look at the numbers shows that there's a case to be made for the argument that the 'big win for the Colts' scenario was achievable.

On Thursday I questioned Rex Grossman's ability as a quarterback and my opinion not only seems to have been justified, but one of my favourite sportswriters also though it. To recap, here are his 2006 stats before the big game:

Regular Season:
262 for 480 (54%) for 3193 yards, 23 TDs and 20 INTs for a rating of 73.9

Post Season:
32 for 64 (50%) for 426 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INTs for a rating of 75.4

Now here's the line for Superbowl XLI:

20 of 28 (71%) for 165 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTS for a rating of 68.3. Remember, five of those completions were made with less than two minutes left at the end of the game when the result wasn't in doubt: he basically played at a level below both his regular season and post season performances - Joey Harrington and Jake Plummer territory in fact.

Again, the emphasis must be on team rather than individual performance, but it should be blindingly obvious to the Bears coaching staff that the one area which was a let down was passing offense. Grossman either needs to improve or Lovie Smith needs to find a new quarterback.

Run/Pass Ratios Revisited

Counting the rushing attempts by Manning and Dallas Clark (the first was a scramble, the second one looked like some sort of college option from Manning's days in the SEC), Indy ran 42 times and passed 38 times, a 52/48 ratio that had more in common with their regular season ratio when they were a far more balanced team offensively.

I deliberately made a note of the first fifteen plays for each team to see what - if any - pattern I could discern. The Colts passed on 9 of their first fifteen plays (60%) whereas the Bears had a 60/40 run/pass ratio - nine of their game total of 19 rushing attempts came in the first fifteen plays. On the day, the Bears run/pass ratio was 40/60; during the regular season it had been almost exactly 50/50.

It's probably too early to tell exactly how this affected both teams, but it looks very much as if the Colts returned to the style of play that got them to the Superbowl in the first place whereas the Bears sideline may - may - have panicked and decided to push the envelope with a player who is not known for that. I've been listening to ESPN radio this morning (Ron Jaworski has just referred to a 'positive play count' which is basically number of rushes plus completions - the higher the better, 50 is some kind of gold standard) and the Chicago coaches are not being lauded for their playcalling. I'll check out WSCR-AM later.

Last scoring play of the game: a interception return for a touchdown by Indy reserve defensive back Kelvin Hayden, who went to Illinois and grew up in Chicago.

Sometimes it's just not your day.

Rex Grossman endears himself to the media

WSCR 670 The Score is currently commenting on the Jim McMahonesque stunt today that Rex Grossman pulled today: addressing the American media about '...how ignorant some of you guys are' (love to know who was laughing in the background!)

Apparently it's all about selling newspapers. Grossman is all about playing quarterback, so let's see how he shaped up:

Regular Season:
262 for 480 (54%) for 3193 yards, 23 TDs and 20 INTs for a rating of 73.9

Post Season:
32 for 64 (50%) for 426 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INTs for a rating of 75.4

This puts him in the same territory as Alex Smith and Matt Leinart (better ratings) plus Brett Favre and Charlie Frye (worse ratings). It may or may not be significant, but none of those players played for teams with winning records this season.

Here's Jim McMahon's stats for the '85 regular season:

178 for 313 (56.8%) for 2392 yards, 15 TDs and 11 INTs for a rating of 82.6, 10% better than Grossman this season and at the same kind of level as Chad Pennington, Steve McNair and Jake Delhomme in 2006. None of those three had a losing season; the Jets and the Ravens made the playoffs.

Here's a stat for y'all: over the last ten years, the average regular season rating for winning Superbowl QBs has been 91.8. Here are some players from 2006 that scored above that - Drew Brees, Damon Huard, Marc Bulger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb...and Peyton Manning.

OK, football is a team game and the result will not hinge on the performance of one player, but all things being equal it's obvious that Manning is a better quarterback than Grossman and I'd even go as far to say that Chicago has got this far despite Rex Grossman rather than because of him.

Another way of looking at both QB productivity is OL strength. I don't have the time or the resources to come up with a Football Outsiders style analysis but I do have a modified version of their OL stats that I use for the analysing OL performance in the EFL.

The Colts gave up the fewest sacks in the entire league during the regular season (15), but have already given up a third of this total in three post season games. Although the Bears have been inferior in this respect, they've actually been more consistent throughout (25 sacks given up in the regular season) and there's nothing much between them on average yards per rushing attempt; one possible reason for the difference between regular and post season sacks is that Indy have a 47/53 run/pass ratio in the post season as opposed to 56/44 ratio in the regular season - basically, Manning has had to pass more, so realistically the amount of sacks should increase.

Madame Zaza wants to interrupt again: if the Colts can get back to a more balanced offensive approach on Sunday, it might be the crucial difference. If Indy can establish the run early then Manning can run the offense that got them to the big show; if 'Bad Rex' turns up and all the Bears can do is run, then it could be a long afternoon for Chicago fans.

All I'm saying is that there is an 'Indianapolis winning a blow out' scenario.