Colts Win The Superbowl

Peyton Manning: MVP.

Despite an electrifying opening kickoff return for a touchdown by Devin Hester, the Indianapolis Colts won Superbowl 41 by 29-17 in Miami last night. The score was arguably a reflection of the difference between the two teams, but a closer look at the numbers shows that there's a case to be made for the argument that the 'big win for the Colts' scenario was achievable.

On Thursday I questioned Rex Grossman's ability as a quarterback and my opinion not only seems to have been justified, but one of my favourite sportswriters also though it. To recap, here are his 2006 stats before the big game:

Regular Season:
262 for 480 (54%) for 3193 yards, 23 TDs and 20 INTs for a rating of 73.9

Post Season:
32 for 64 (50%) for 426 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INTs for a rating of 75.4

Now here's the line for Superbowl XLI:

20 of 28 (71%) for 165 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTS for a rating of 68.3. Remember, five of those completions were made with less than two minutes left at the end of the game when the result wasn't in doubt: he basically played at a level below both his regular season and post season performances - Joey Harrington and Jake Plummer territory in fact.

Again, the emphasis must be on team rather than individual performance, but it should be blindingly obvious to the Bears coaching staff that the one area which was a let down was passing offense. Grossman either needs to improve or Lovie Smith needs to find a new quarterback.

Run/Pass Ratios Revisited

Counting the rushing attempts by Manning and Dallas Clark (the first was a scramble, the second one looked like some sort of college option from Manning's days in the SEC), Indy ran 42 times and passed 38 times, a 52/48 ratio that had more in common with their regular season ratio when they were a far more balanced team offensively.

I deliberately made a note of the first fifteen plays for each team to see what - if any - pattern I could discern. The Colts passed on 9 of their first fifteen plays (60%) whereas the Bears had a 60/40 run/pass ratio - nine of their game total of 19 rushing attempts came in the first fifteen plays. On the day, the Bears run/pass ratio was 40/60; during the regular season it had been almost exactly 50/50.

It's probably too early to tell exactly how this affected both teams, but it looks very much as if the Colts returned to the style of play that got them to the Superbowl in the first place whereas the Bears sideline may - may - have panicked and decided to push the envelope with a player who is not known for that. I've been listening to ESPN radio this morning (Ron Jaworski has just referred to a 'positive play count' which is basically number of rushes plus completions - the higher the better, 50 is some kind of gold standard) and the Chicago coaches are not being lauded for their playcalling. I'll check out WSCR-AM later.

Last scoring play of the game: a interception return for a touchdown by Indy reserve defensive back Kelvin Hayden, who went to Illinois and grew up in Chicago.

Sometimes it's just not your day.