It's the middle of September and I've not posted for two months, despite all my favourite games starting. OK, I went on holiday for a couple of weeks but this is pathetic.
So let's jump in straight away with some headlines.
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Angels for winning the American League West. I've made a stunning 16p profit on that for a £2 bet on B*tfair. Well done me.
Not doing so well is my pick for the National League West, the Arizona Diamondbacks who are now 4.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, I had bets on the two Chicago clubs, who are both leading their respective divisions although the Cubs eight game lead over the Brewers is a little more comfortable than the slim lead the White Sox have over the Twins.
All the football seasons are now underway and I shall be nipping down to Ashton Gate in about an hour's time for the game against Birmingham City. We're fifth, they're second, we've not lost at home and they've not won away...so it's a big game. Don't want to make any predictions, so I won't. Well, maybe a little one. It won't finish scoreless. I could lay that outcome on B*tfair, but knowing my luck...
College Football has been running since the end of August and thanks to B*tfair I can download my results in a handy spreadsheet format to see exactly how crap I am at predicting winners.
Starting with Week 1, Clemson to beat Alabama, Michigan to beat Utah, Pittsburgh to beat Bowling Green, Virginia Tech to beat...ah well, you get the picture and I'm sure you're tired of bad beat stories already but there's only one that can really be put down to overwhelming stupidity. In an incident comparable to backing Florida State to win the ACC last season, I pressed the wrong button and backed UTEP to beat Texas a couple of weeks ago. I'm trying to think of a suitable Association Football parallel but the only thing I can come up with is something like Chelsea playing Luton, Chelsea being given a two goal start and me still backing Luton to win. Hey, did anyone notice that Luton fails the blogger.com spellchecker?
Professional Football is approaching Week 3 and the main regular season story is that Tom Brady is out for the season*. This does not mean the Patriots have suddenly become fallible: far from it. There are ten 2-0 teams right now and they're amongst them.
The others are Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Denver, the Giants, Dallas, Green Bay, Carolina and Arizona. Including the Patriots, six of those teams made the playoffs last season - Buffalo, Denver, Carolina and Arizona didn't.
Thanks to the research by the good people at Football Outsiders (in particular the win expectancy charts published in Football Prospectus 2008), these ten teams currently have a 65.2% chance of making the playoffs, which can reach 79.5% if any of them win on Sunday. I'm pushed for time now, but as part of my selection process for my Sunday picks I'll be thinking out loud later in the week on the games the teams above are involved in.
But right now, I'm off to be a fan.
* As opposed to the main pre-season story, which was the Brett Favre saga.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
It's Raining Because It's July
What a mess. A friend of mine is in Kephalonia, where it's 40 degrees: he sent me a photo to prove it so I sent him a photo of a puddle.
It's raining, so it's football weather. I'm officially in pre-season punting mode, the delights of some of the more arcane Nordic competitions are the out of season proving grounds for my so-called system, which at the moment is primarily concerned with bankroll building rather than anything else.
The problem at the moment is that there aren't any European leagues with reasonable sample sizes, although they're all a couple of games away. A further problem with the Russian premier is that UEFA Cup Winners Zenit St Petersburg have played fewer games than anyone else, presumably due to being involved in that competition.
However, it's proving an education. I've learned that St Patrick's Athletic of the Eircom Premier League play at the Stadium of Light in Inchicore (a Dublin suburb) and that Falkenbergs of Sweden play in yellow.
The results of baseball's All Star Game ballot have almost been finalised and I've got a few players from my fantasy roster in there.
AL pitchers:
Justin Duscherer (Oakland)
Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
Francisco Rodriguez, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders (Angels)
NL outfielders:
Geovany Soto (Cubs)
Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
Ryan Braun (Brewers)
Reserve: Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)
NL pitchers:
Danny Haren (Diamondbacks)
Aaron Cook (Rockies)
Not a bad haul considering I was in last place for quite some time.
It's raining, so it's football weather. I'm officially in pre-season punting mode, the delights of some of the more arcane Nordic competitions are the out of season proving grounds for my so-called system, which at the moment is primarily concerned with bankroll building rather than anything else.
The problem at the moment is that there aren't any European leagues with reasonable sample sizes, although they're all a couple of games away. A further problem with the Russian premier is that UEFA Cup Winners Zenit St Petersburg have played fewer games than anyone else, presumably due to being involved in that competition.
However, it's proving an education. I've learned that St Patrick's Athletic of the Eircom Premier League play at the Stadium of Light in Inchicore (a Dublin suburb) and that Falkenbergs of Sweden play in yellow.
The results of baseball's All Star Game ballot have almost been finalised and I've got a few players from my fantasy roster in there.
AL pitchers:
Justin Duscherer (Oakland)
Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
Francisco Rodriguez, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders (Angels)
NL outfielders:
Geovany Soto (Cubs)
Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
Ryan Braun (Brewers)
Reserve: Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)
NL pitchers:
Danny Haren (Diamondbacks)
Aaron Cook (Rockies)
Not a bad haul considering I was in last place for quite some time.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Congratulations To Spain
Europe has new football champions: Spain beat Germany 1-0 to win their first major championship since 1964 with a goal from Liverpool's Fernando Torres with 12 minutes left in the first half.
They thoroughly deserved it too, being by far the better team on the night.
Ballack played the entire game BTW.
They thoroughly deserved it too, being by far the better team on the night.
Ballack played the entire game BTW.
Arguably the biggest story of the weekend was the return of one of my favourite British TV super villains...but more of than another day.
May Be Injured, Might Not Play...Blah Blah Blah
David Villa of Spain is definitely out of tonight's final, whereas Michael Ballack is what would best be described as 'doubtful', according to the BBC story here:
'Chelsea midfielder Ballack suffered the injury in training on Friday and will be desperate to play, having missed out on the 2002 World Cup final because of suspension.
"On Friday he had problems with his right calf, the muscle has hardened and he couldn't possibly participate in the training, so we will have to wait and see how things develop," said Germany coach Joachim Low.
"Our medical people are working round the clock, but we have to think seriously about what's going to happen if Michael Ballack cannot play.'
So nobody should be too surprised if Ballack starts. This type of mind game is what I had in mind when I mentioned yesterday when I referred to the possibility of Spain starting the game like a rabbit in the headlights: they may not know until shortly before kick off which team Germany will field and they'll have to make the appropriate adjustments either way. I know that preparing for the other team is vital, but if you're not 100% sure about who you're going to be up against it can create confusion and uncertainty, which leads me to believe that this is a stone cold bluff by the German management.
Spain are still the favourites.
Yesterday's baseball tips were a mixed bag with Detroit and the White Sox winning close games, but the Brewers were soundly beaten by the Minnesota Twins. I need to remember not to chase streaks as this is not the first time that I've done that this season: when the Atlanta Braves were woeful away from home earlier in the season I did exactly the same thing and paid for it. I've got some idea of my picks today but I've got to check a few things out before posting them.
'Chelsea midfielder Ballack suffered the injury in training on Friday and will be desperate to play, having missed out on the 2002 World Cup final because of suspension.
"On Friday he had problems with his right calf, the muscle has hardened and he couldn't possibly participate in the training, so we will have to wait and see how things develop," said Germany coach Joachim Low.
"Our medical people are working round the clock, but we have to think seriously about what's going to happen if Michael Ballack cannot play.'
So nobody should be too surprised if Ballack starts. This type of mind game is what I had in mind when I mentioned yesterday when I referred to the possibility of Spain starting the game like a rabbit in the headlights: they may not know until shortly before kick off which team Germany will field and they'll have to make the appropriate adjustments either way. I know that preparing for the other team is vital, but if you're not 100% sure about who you're going to be up against it can create confusion and uncertainty, which leads me to believe that this is a stone cold bluff by the German management.
Spain are still the favourites.
Yesterday's baseball tips were a mixed bag with Detroit and the White Sox winning close games, but the Brewers were soundly beaten by the Minnesota Twins. I need to remember not to chase streaks as this is not the first time that I've done that this season: when the Atlanta Braves were woeful away from home earlier in the season I did exactly the same thing and paid for it. I've got some idea of my picks today but I've got to check a few things out before posting them.
Saturday, June 28, 2008
An Intriguing Final
Euro 2008 ends tomorrow night with a clash between pre-tournament favourites Germany and perennial under achievers Spain, the latter being the actual favourites with the bookies.
You might ask why a team that hasn't won a major tournament for over 40 years is favoured over one that has one of the best tournament records in the world, but the answer is simple. Spain have played some exciting football, have scored lots of goals and have a number of outstanding individuals. On the other hand, Germany have occasionally looked clueless, have already lost to Croatia and narrowly avoided making complete fools of themselves against Turkey in the semi finals.
Having said all that about the Germans, they're in the final and you cannot be absolutely sure that they won't win it - especially if the Spanish turn into the proverbial rabbits in the headlights.
Not surprisingly, I've got some action on this game. I laid Germany on Betfair at 5.1 at the beginning of the month - before the tournament even started - because I really didn't think they'd win it. The lay odds as I write this are currently 2.46.
Then I got Germany in the work sweepstake...getting past Turkey meant a guaranteed £22 which could increase to £50 if they win. It's something of a no-lose situation because I've had a small punt on Spain; talk about hedging my bets!
Madame Zaza predicts Spain. Because they're better.
City brought a new player yesterday, Gavin Williams from Ipswich. His Wikipedia entry is here, his overall stats are here and here's a goal he scored against Leeds United.
There'll probably be some more player movement over the next week but I'll report that when it happens rather than indulging in the type of idle speculation that's been occurring on certain forums.
More sporting excitement: I got an e-mail from the ever helpful Liam Doyle at Word Of Sport telling me that they were about to send me the college football previews I ordered...including the amazing Phil Steele. Can't wait!
Todays baseball picks: Detroit Tigers over Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins over Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox over Chicago Cubs. The Twins have a ten game undefeated streak, the best in baseball right now.
Back tomorrow, possibly after the Euro 2008 final.
You might ask why a team that hasn't won a major tournament for over 40 years is favoured over one that has one of the best tournament records in the world, but the answer is simple. Spain have played some exciting football, have scored lots of goals and have a number of outstanding individuals. On the other hand, Germany have occasionally looked clueless, have already lost to Croatia and narrowly avoided making complete fools of themselves against Turkey in the semi finals.
Having said all that about the Germans, they're in the final and you cannot be absolutely sure that they won't win it - especially if the Spanish turn into the proverbial rabbits in the headlights.
Not surprisingly, I've got some action on this game. I laid Germany on Betfair at 5.1 at the beginning of the month - before the tournament even started - because I really didn't think they'd win it. The lay odds as I write this are currently 2.46.
Then I got Germany in the work sweepstake...getting past Turkey meant a guaranteed £22 which could increase to £50 if they win. It's something of a no-lose situation because I've had a small punt on Spain; talk about hedging my bets!
Madame Zaza predicts Spain. Because they're better.
City brought a new player yesterday, Gavin Williams from Ipswich. His Wikipedia entry is here, his overall stats are here and here's a goal he scored against Leeds United.
There'll probably be some more player movement over the next week but I'll report that when it happens rather than indulging in the type of idle speculation that's been occurring on certain forums.
More sporting excitement: I got an e-mail from the ever helpful Liam Doyle at Word Of Sport telling me that they were about to send me the college football previews I ordered...including the amazing Phil Steele. Can't wait!
Todays baseball picks: Detroit Tigers over Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins over Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox over Chicago Cubs. The Twins have a ten game undefeated streak, the best in baseball right now.
Back tomorrow, possibly after the Euro 2008 final.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Euro 2008: Hung, drawn and quarter finalled
A ridiculous set of results:
Portugal: out
Croatia: out
Netherlands: out
Still in: Germany (the favourites), Spain (about time), Russia (a tournament too early?) and - somehow - Turkey, despite only being ahead in all their games for a grand total of two minutes.
Suffice to say, I lost on some of these games. Pah.
Portugal: out
Croatia: out
Netherlands: out
Still in: Germany (the favourites), Spain (about time), Russia (a tournament too early?) and - somehow - Turkey, despite only being ahead in all their games for a grand total of two minutes.
Suffice to say, I lost on some of these games. Pah.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Close but no cigar
Well, seeing as it's been three months since I wrote anything here and a month since the Championship playoff final, I think it's worth an update.
City lost 1-0 to Hull City at Wembley and that was that. I'm still occasionally very annoyed about it and it all came back to me last night while I was watching the amazing end of the Croatia v Turkey game in Euro 2008. More of that nearer the start of the football season I think.
City lost 1-0 to Hull City at Wembley and that was that. I'm still occasionally very annoyed about it and it all came back to me last night while I was watching the amazing end of the Croatia v Turkey game in Euro 2008. More of that nearer the start of the football season I think.
Monday, March 31, 2008
'Be the hero, Steve...'
Were the words I said to myself as Steve Brooker entered the fray on Saturday afternoon. 72 minutes gone, 1-1. As predicted, Dele Adebola scored the first, but Norwich equalised through Darren Huckerby and to be honest I was sitting in the Atyeo thinking we needed a bloody miracle.Three minutes of injury time on the board, into the third minute, free kick to City, Brooker scores his first goal for City since the 3-3 draw with Coventry City in the cup in January 2007.
City 2, Norwich 1. Top of the Championship again.
Coventry City...Coventry City...Coventry City...
In a curious parallel, Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals (and the Arlen Spectres) hit a walk off home run to win the game against Atlanta on Sunday night, the first win at the new stadium in DC and the first Spectre home run of the season. Different games, thousands of miles apart, last minute dramatic finishes...happy, happy, happy. Check out Zimmerman in the Nationals road uniform...looks familiar, doesn't it?
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Jerry Dammers Wouldn't Advertise Fish Fingers
And so to Norwich.
I did all the prep work yesterday, but it's currently upstairs, so please excuse me while I go and get it. Meanwhile, have some old time music that doesn't currently promote fish fingers.
The Specials. From Coventry. Fate.
Right...confusingly, Sky is reporting that City are attempting to beat Norwich for the third straight time which apparently means the third time in the league since May 1999. Errr...we've only played them once in the league since then, when we won at Carrow Road earlier in the season. Not much of a stat.
Norwich have won two of their last six aways but the last win was against the Huns on 9th February. Since then they've lost three (they drew at Watford but 'Watford' and 'draw' feature in a lot in sentences in this blog) and have scored a massive one goal in their last four, a late equaliser by former Gashead Jamie Cureton. He's not the goalscoring threat: Ched Evans (on loan from Manchester City and it's short for 'Chedwyn'...UPDATE: he's riding the pine this afternoon) has scored three of their last four away goals. Another stat for you: half of those four goals came in the last ten minutes.
We need an early goal or at least one in the first half, which is where three of the seven goals we've scored in the last six homes have come. Specifically, Dele Adebola needs an early one, followed by a goal by Defender To Be Named Later: defensively, in the last two games we've conceded just before half time and this needs to STOP RIGHT NOW.
Wild guess time: a similar game to the Sheffield Wednesday one. We get a two goal lead, then either Cureton or Evans scores late and it's squeeky bum time with three quarters of an hour of injury time. As it's a Saturday afternoon game and I'll be sitting in my traditional spot, this is a case of normal service.
Mind you, it's blowing a gale and pissing down outside. 0-0.
Keep repeating the mantra...Coventry...Coventry...Coventry....
I did all the prep work yesterday, but it's currently upstairs, so please excuse me while I go and get it. Meanwhile, have some old time music that doesn't currently promote fish fingers.
The Specials. From Coventry. Fate.
Right...confusingly, Sky is reporting that City are attempting to beat Norwich for the third straight time which apparently means the third time in the league since May 1999. Errr...we've only played them once in the league since then, when we won at Carrow Road earlier in the season. Not much of a stat.
Norwich have won two of their last six aways but the last win was against the Huns on 9th February. Since then they've lost three (they drew at Watford but 'Watford' and 'draw' feature in a lot in sentences in this blog) and have scored a massive one goal in their last four, a late equaliser by former Gashead Jamie Cureton. He's not the goalscoring threat: Ched Evans (on loan from Manchester City and it's short for 'Chedwyn'...UPDATE: he's riding the pine this afternoon) has scored three of their last four away goals. Another stat for you: half of those four goals came in the last ten minutes.
We need an early goal or at least one in the first half, which is where three of the seven goals we've scored in the last six homes have come. Specifically, Dele Adebola needs an early one, followed by a goal by Defender To Be Named Later: defensively, in the last two games we've conceded just before half time and this needs to STOP RIGHT NOW.
Wild guess time: a similar game to the Sheffield Wednesday one. We get a two goal lead, then either Cureton or Evans scores late and it's squeeky bum time with three quarters of an hour of injury time. As it's a Saturday afternoon game and I'll be sitting in my traditional spot, this is a case of normal service.
Mind you, it's blowing a gale and pissing down outside. 0-0.
Keep repeating the mantra...Coventry...Coventry...Coventry....
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
And They're Off...
The A's split the Opening Series in Japan with the Sox, the Spectres are currently joint third.
City remain second despite losing to the Huns on Saturday. We've got Nardge Stee on Saturday, who last won down here in April 1980 during the last days of Division 1...to put it another way, when this was number one in the hit parade....
Which was replaced with this almost immediately...
Ah, those were the days.
Not much change in the top six apart from Plymouth have made their way back into it. There's a four point gap between them and WBA, but then four clubs immediately behind Gargoyle who could still make the playoffs.
T6H2H as follows:
WBA P9 W5 D2 L2 F19 A10 Pts 17
City P9 W3 D4 L2 F9 A10 Pts 13
Stoke P9 W2 D6 L2 F11 A9 Pts 12
Plymouth P10 W3 D3 L4 F13 A16 Pts 12
Hull P9 W2 D3 L4 F9 A12 Pts 9
Watford P8 W1 D4 L3 F3 A7 Pts 7
Remaining games:
Hull v Watford (this Saturday)
WBA v Watford (12th April)
Stoke v Bristol City (19th April)
Hull v Watford looks like a draw to me, although the Tigers haven't beaten Watford at home since 1978. Hull haven't beaten any of the top six at home this season, Watford haven't beaten any of the top six away in 2007/2008. Having said that, although Hull's recent home form has been pretty impressive, they've only played one team in the top half of the table in the last six games (Burnley). Watford have drawn five of their last six aways including games against City and Plymouth.
The top four have got a mixed bag this weekend. I'll post an in depth profile before our game on Friday or Saturday and let's assume that WBA will beat Colchester at The Hawthorns, but both Plymouth and Stoke are away, to Coventry and Sheffield Wednesday respectively.
Coventry are fearsome at home right now. Apart from being smashed 5-0 by WBA in the Cup in February the last time they lost - and conceded a goal at Highfield Road in the league - was in mid January. Plymouth's recent away record isn't too shabby but they may be up against it this time - this tends to be a series where the home team wins.
Sheffield Wednesday v Stoke has all the makings of an epic. Stoke have a one point lead over City but the Wendies are in the last relegation spot. They've lost two of their last six homes (WBA and Ipswich) whereas the Stokies have lost three of their last six aways. Wednesday haven't beaten Stoke at home this century, but two of the last three games have been draws.
While I was looking all this up, something struck me. If City go up, it may be because of some help from Coventry City. Why? Stay tuned.
City remain second despite losing to the Huns on Saturday. We've got Nardge Stee on Saturday, who last won down here in April 1980 during the last days of Division 1...to put it another way, when this was number one in the hit parade....
Which was replaced with this almost immediately...
Ah, those were the days.
Not much change in the top six apart from Plymouth have made their way back into it. There's a four point gap between them and WBA, but then four clubs immediately behind Gargoyle who could still make the playoffs.
T6H2H as follows:
WBA P9 W5 D2 L2 F19 A10 Pts 17
City P9 W3 D4 L2 F9 A10 Pts 13
Stoke P9 W2 D6 L2 F11 A9 Pts 12
Plymouth P10 W3 D3 L4 F13 A16 Pts 12
Hull P9 W2 D3 L4 F9 A12 Pts 9
Watford P8 W1 D4 L3 F3 A7 Pts 7
Remaining games:
Hull v Watford (this Saturday)
WBA v Watford (12th April)
Stoke v Bristol City (19th April)
Hull v Watford looks like a draw to me, although the Tigers haven't beaten Watford at home since 1978. Hull haven't beaten any of the top six at home this season, Watford haven't beaten any of the top six away in 2007/2008. Having said that, although Hull's recent home form has been pretty impressive, they've only played one team in the top half of the table in the last six games (Burnley). Watford have drawn five of their last six aways including games against City and Plymouth.
The top four have got a mixed bag this weekend. I'll post an in depth profile before our game on Friday or Saturday and let's assume that WBA will beat Colchester at The Hawthorns, but both Plymouth and Stoke are away, to Coventry and Sheffield Wednesday respectively.
Coventry are fearsome at home right now. Apart from being smashed 5-0 by WBA in the Cup in February the last time they lost - and conceded a goal at Highfield Road in the league - was in mid January. Plymouth's recent away record isn't too shabby but they may be up against it this time - this tends to be a series where the home team wins.
Sheffield Wednesday v Stoke has all the makings of an epic. Stoke have a one point lead over City but the Wendies are in the last relegation spot. They've lost two of their last six homes (WBA and Ipswich) whereas the Stokies have lost three of their last six aways. Wednesday haven't beaten Stoke at home this century, but two of the last three games have been draws.
While I was looking all this up, something struck me. If City go up, it may be because of some help from Coventry City. Why? Stay tuned.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
This Year's Model
Barry Bonds has exactly the same birthday as me and my team was known as the Bristol Bondsmen for several years until he was shown the door by the San Francisco Giants at the end of last season...I won't go into too many details, but at one point I was going to call the team the Balco Bondsmen.
So it only seems fitting that my fantasy baseball team is renamed and after...well, minutes of deliberation...I give you The Arlen Spectres.
So it only seems fitting that my fantasy baseball team is renamed and after...well, minutes of deliberation...I give you The Arlen Spectres.
That's the infield done.
But lo - it's actually a triple entendre! A 6-4-3 if you will. So if Boomhauer, Hank, Dale and Bill are the players, here's the manager...
OK, a quick bit of background: Senator Arlen Spector (R, Pennsylvania) has been the most vocal critic of the Spygate Scandal that ran during the American football season. I'm not going to elaborate on Spygate because I already made my feelings known (scroll down to 'Beating Charstards') and the football gods got their revenge by letting the Giants win the Superbowl.
Of course, every sporting franchise needs some kind of evil GM (an Al Davros/Ge*rge Stoneburner type) and here's the third layer of...irony...nah...errr...'entendre'...oh I don't know...but here he is, the head of SPECTOR, Ernst Stavro Blofeld.
So there we go...my team has cartoon players, a republican senator as manager and a Bond supervillain as GM. I'm very happy with that as I try not to take this stuff seriously but this year I am a defending champion rather than trying not to finish last. Let's take a look at the pitchers who are going to help me defend my title - outfielders to follow.
Pitchers
I didn't plan my draft with as much precision as I did last season, so if anything I'm a little short on pitchers. Three starters, three closers so at least it's symmetrical.
2007 Line:
Collectively they worked under 1400 innings (good) for 61 wins, 115 saves, 800 strikeouts with a combined ERA of 3.45 and a combined WHIP of 1.21. I must admit, that looks a little short on wins right now. As for projected numbers, Baseball Prospectus sees a drop of across the board so I think I probably need another starter at some point. When we get to outfielders you'll be able to see that I've plenty of trade bait.
Starters:
CC Sabathia (Indians) - back for another year of 200+ innings!
Cole Hamels (Phillies)
Danny Haren (Diamondbacks)
Closers:
Francisco Rodriguez (Angels) - did OK with the Angels I had last year (Guerrero, Escobar, Lackey, Kendrick and Cabrera), probably a good idea there isn't a post season in my league.
Mariano Rivera (Yankees, below) - cartoon character players, republican manager, evil GM and a Yankees closer!
Joe Borowski (Indians) - here's the risky one. Loads of saves, but dreadful ERA - he was actually on my Anti Watch list last season. Looking forward to seeing some Tribe games where CC starts and Joe finishes.
More later, thank you for reading...
Monday, March 17, 2008
Ups & Downs
A mixed bag being a red last weekend. City lost and are now second on goal difference to Stoke, who drew 0-0 at Watford. Having spent a lot of time hanging about in the rain I managed to pick up a stinking cold which I'm currently suffering from. I managed to pick up a ticket for the trip to Cardiff next weekend.
I'm culturally confused at the best of times, but my negative feelings about a football defeat were offset by a Grand Slam win for Wales. So it's ironic that travelling to the town where my grandmother and father were born to see the team that my grandfather followed and where my sister and brother in law live is such a pain in the backside...purely because I support Bristol City.
Of course, there's a lot more to it than that but it's bloody silly nonetheless. I'm sure I can't be the only City fan who is Anglo-Welsh.
Summer's coming. I drafted my baseball team on Sunday: more details coming, probably tomorrow.
I'm culturally confused at the best of times, but my negative feelings about a football defeat were offset by a Grand Slam win for Wales. So it's ironic that travelling to the town where my grandmother and father were born to see the team that my grandfather followed and where my sister and brother in law live is such a pain in the backside...purely because I support Bristol City.
Of course, there's a lot more to it than that but it's bloody silly nonetheless. I'm sure I can't be the only City fan who is Anglo-Welsh.
Summer's coming. I drafted my baseball team on Sunday: more details coming, probably tomorrow.
Friday, March 14, 2008
The Championship Enters The Twilight Zone
Right, to business.
Hull are now a top six club and the T6H2H Table now looks like this:
1. WBA P8 W4 D2 L2 F17 A11 Pts 14
2. Charlton P9 W3 D4 L2 F12 A12 Pts 13
3. City P9 W3 D4 L2 F8 A9 Pts 13
4. Stoke P8 W2 D4 L2 F8 A7 Pts 10
5. Hull P9 W1 D4 L4 F8 A12 Pts 7
6. Watford P7 W1 D4 L4 F5 A7 Pts 7
Three of the remaining five fixtures between the current top six take place before the end of March, starting tomorrow when Stoke go to Watford. Stoke have won two of their last six aways but have been outscored by 6-9, Watford haven't lost any of their last six homes and have only conceded two goals whilst scoring eight.
The best result for City would be a Watford win or a draw. The 'Hornets' are the bookies favourites but if it was available I'd have a bet on how many birds in flight get hit by the ball. Watford were here on Tuesday and what a bunch of hoofers they were. Stoke aren't exactly well known as masters of the short passing game either.
We've got Plymouth. They've lost three of their last six aways, we're unbeaten at home since November and they've not won here since September 1931.
Make of that what you will.
Congratulations to WBA on belting the Gas 5-1 at The Mem to reach the semi finals of the FA Cup. Ordinarily that would be an achievement, but it's tempered slightly by the fact that there are two other Championship teams in the semi finals...Barnsley and Cardiff. One of them will reach the final - and there's a very real prospect that it could be an all Championship final if WBA beat Portsmouth.
Outstanding Baggies v Pompey fact: the last time West Brom won the cup (in 1968), they beat Portsmouth 2-1 in the fifth round. The season before was the last time Cardiff played Barnsley in the cup, Cardiff won the third round tie after a replay.
So here's my take: we beat Plymouth, Watford beat Stoke and our lead increases.
Then we go to Cardiff. More after the game tomorrow.
Hull are now a top six club and the T6H2H Table now looks like this:
1. WBA P8 W4 D2 L2 F17 A11 Pts 14
2. Charlton P9 W3 D4 L2 F12 A12 Pts 13
3. City P9 W3 D4 L2 F8 A9 Pts 13
4. Stoke P8 W2 D4 L2 F8 A7 Pts 10
5. Hull P9 W1 D4 L4 F8 A12 Pts 7
6. Watford P7 W1 D4 L4 F5 A7 Pts 7
Three of the remaining five fixtures between the current top six take place before the end of March, starting tomorrow when Stoke go to Watford. Stoke have won two of their last six aways but have been outscored by 6-9, Watford haven't lost any of their last six homes and have only conceded two goals whilst scoring eight.
The best result for City would be a Watford win or a draw. The 'Hornets' are the bookies favourites but if it was available I'd have a bet on how many birds in flight get hit by the ball. Watford were here on Tuesday and what a bunch of hoofers they were. Stoke aren't exactly well known as masters of the short passing game either.
We've got Plymouth. They've lost three of their last six aways, we're unbeaten at home since November and they've not won here since September 1931.
Make of that what you will.
Congratulations to WBA on belting the Gas 5-1 at The Mem to reach the semi finals of the FA Cup. Ordinarily that would be an achievement, but it's tempered slightly by the fact that there are two other Championship teams in the semi finals...Barnsley and Cardiff. One of them will reach the final - and there's a very real prospect that it could be an all Championship final if WBA beat Portsmouth.
Outstanding Baggies v Pompey fact: the last time West Brom won the cup (in 1968), they beat Portsmouth 2-1 in the fifth round. The season before was the last time Cardiff played Barnsley in the cup, Cardiff won the third round tie after a replay.
So here's my take: we beat Plymouth, Watford beat Stoke and our lead increases.
Then we go to Cardiff. More after the game tomorrow.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
The Giddy Heights Part II
Two games, four points. Still top.
A win at home against Hull followed by a 1-1 draw with Charlton last night, which has amended the T6H2H stats as follows:
1. WBA P8 W5 D2 L1 F19 A9 Pts 17
2. Stoke P8 W3 D3 L3 F11 A9 Pts 12
3. Charlton P7 W2 D3 L2 F10 A12 Pts 9
4. City P7 W2 D3 L2 F7 A9 Pts 9
5. Plymouth P7 W2 D2 L3 F9 A12 Pts 8
6. Watford P6 W0 D3 L3 F4 A9 Pts 3
The only other game that had any impact this table was WBA beating Plymouth 3-0 on Saturday. I'm not going to spend any time on T6vB3 as the two games in that subdivision went as planned with wins for WBA and Plymouth against Sheffield Wednesday and Colchester respectively.
Wednesday looked...well, errr...Donald Ducked.
All this means is that City move up one place in my hypothetical table, but more significantly I think last night's point in South East London may mean that in the long run Charlton may well end up spending next season in the Championship. They've bought in former City striker Leroy Lita in on loan for the rest of the month, the sort of move that indicates that Alan Pardew realises that the game may almost be up this season. They've only got one more home game against a top six team (WBA on 21st March), the last opportunity for them to actually beat a top six club.
The bookies still seem to hate us though. City's odds seem to be shortening, but we're still outsiders in the automatic promotion slots. I'm probably not going to bother looking at them again until after the Leicester game on Saturday. We've struggled there in the league - haven't won there since 25th March 1915...about a week after the attack on the Dardanelles began.
Talking of which...the favourites for this weekend in the Six Nations are Ireland, England and France. Hmmm. I'd agree with two of those.
A win at home against Hull followed by a 1-1 draw with Charlton last night, which has amended the T6H2H stats as follows:
1. WBA P8 W5 D2 L1 F19 A9 Pts 17
2. Stoke P8 W3 D3 L3 F11 A9 Pts 12
3. Charlton P7 W2 D3 L2 F10 A12 Pts 9
4. City P7 W2 D3 L2 F7 A9 Pts 9
5. Plymouth P7 W2 D2 L3 F9 A12 Pts 8
6. Watford P6 W0 D3 L3 F4 A9 Pts 3
The only other game that had any impact this table was WBA beating Plymouth 3-0 on Saturday. I'm not going to spend any time on T6vB3 as the two games in that subdivision went as planned with wins for WBA and Plymouth against Sheffield Wednesday and Colchester respectively.
Wednesday looked...well, errr...Donald Ducked.
All this means is that City move up one place in my hypothetical table, but more significantly I think last night's point in South East London may mean that in the long run Charlton may well end up spending next season in the Championship. They've bought in former City striker Leroy Lita in on loan for the rest of the month, the sort of move that indicates that Alan Pardew realises that the game may almost be up this season. They've only got one more home game against a top six team (WBA on 21st March), the last opportunity for them to actually beat a top six club.
The bookies still seem to hate us though. City's odds seem to be shortening, but we're still outsiders in the automatic promotion slots. I'm probably not going to bother looking at them again until after the Leicester game on Saturday. We've struggled there in the league - haven't won there since 25th March 1915...about a week after the attack on the Dardanelles began.
Talking of which...the favourites for this weekend in the Six Nations are Ireland, England and France. Hmmm. I'd agree with two of those.
Saturday, March 01, 2008
The Giddy Heights
Exactly a year ago I was worried about getting out of League 1. Having suffered through several seasons of failure via automatic promotion and the play offs it was nerve wracking to be doing so well. Everything turned out well in the end.
In August - like a lot of other City fans - I expected this season to be about consolidation. I thought mid table would be fine, perhaps with a cup run.
If we beat Hull today we go top of the Championship. We're currently second behind Stoke City and although I don't have a programme near me I think I'm correct in saying that we've not been out of the top five all season.
I did a head to head analysis this time last year and here's the same thing for this season. This is based on the top six playing each other:
1. WBA P7 W4 D2 L1 F16 A9 Pts 14
2. Stoke City P8 W3 D3 L2 F11 A9 Pts 12
3. Plymouth Argyle P6 W2 D2 L2 F9 A9 Pts 8
4. Charlton Athletic P7 W2 D2 L3 F9 A11 Pts 8
5. City P6 W2 D2 L2 F6 A8 Pts 8
6. Watford P6 W0 D3 L3 F4 A9 Pts 3
Top Six v Bottom 3:
1. WBA 21pts
2. Stoke 21 pts
3. City 17pts
4. Watford 16pts
5. Charlton 14pts
6. Colchester 13pts (interesting!)
7. Plymouth 12pts
8. Scunthorpe 10pts
9. Sheffield Wednesday 7pts
Comparison between the two tables seems to indicate the following:
* Watford are punching above their weight at the moment
* Colchester may be too good to go down
* WBA should win promotion
* Plymouth are erratic
Remaining games as follows:
Today: WBA v Plymouth
4th March: Charlton v City, Plymouth v Colchester, Sheffield Wednesday v WBA
11th March: City v Watford, Scunthorpe v Plymouth
15th March: City v Plymouth, Watford v Stoke
21st March: Charlton v WBA
22nd March: Plymouth v Watford
29th March: Sheffield Wednesday v Stoke, WBA v Colchester
5th April: Plymouth v Charlton
12th April: WBA v Watford, Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth
19th April: Stoke v City
26th April: Colchester v Stoke, Watford v Scunthorpe
So basically the four games after today (including Leicester next Saturday) are absolutely huge. It's interesting to note that this is a remarkably similar situation to last season and the experience City got last year may be invaluable - in some respects we're actually doing better than we did against top six teams in League 1 during 2006/2007. We've lost fewer games and have conceded fewer goals although to be fair it's also worth pointing out that we've scored fewer.
Some more interesting things about the top six head to head games...
WBA are undefeated at home, so are Stoke. Two of WBA's last three games against the current top six are at home, Stoke have only one left (yeah, City)
Plymouth, Charlton and Watford haven't won at home. Watford only have one opportunity left while Plymouth and Charlton have two.
Stoke and Watford haven't won away. Stoke's last away game against the current top six is at Watford, the Hornets still have to travel to City and WBA.
City have the tightest home defence in these games (two goals conceded), Watford have the worst (seven). WBA have scored the most home goals (nine, including four against City and Charlton), Watford and City have only scored twice at home against other top six clubs,
Watford have the tightest away defence (two goals), Charlton have the worst away defence (seven goals). WBA have scored the most goals away from home (seven), Watford have only managed two.
Most common result: 1-1, four times
Home wins: seven (biggest: WBA 4 Bristol City 1) accounting for 35%
Draws: seven (again, 35%)
Away wins: six (biggest: Watford 0, WBA 3), 30% of the games so far
No team has won both games against any opponents (yet).
In August - like a lot of other City fans - I expected this season to be about consolidation. I thought mid table would be fine, perhaps with a cup run.
If we beat Hull today we go top of the Championship. We're currently second behind Stoke City and although I don't have a programme near me I think I'm correct in saying that we've not been out of the top five all season.
I did a head to head analysis this time last year and here's the same thing for this season. This is based on the top six playing each other:
1. WBA P7 W4 D2 L1 F16 A9 Pts 14
2. Stoke City P8 W3 D3 L2 F11 A9 Pts 12
3. Plymouth Argyle P6 W2 D2 L2 F9 A9 Pts 8
4. Charlton Athletic P7 W2 D2 L3 F9 A11 Pts 8
5. City P6 W2 D2 L2 F6 A8 Pts 8
6. Watford P6 W0 D3 L3 F4 A9 Pts 3
Top Six v Bottom 3:
1. WBA 21pts
2. Stoke 21 pts
3. City 17pts
4. Watford 16pts
5. Charlton 14pts
6. Colchester 13pts (interesting!)
7. Plymouth 12pts
8. Scunthorpe 10pts
9. Sheffield Wednesday 7pts
Comparison between the two tables seems to indicate the following:
* Watford are punching above their weight at the moment
* Colchester may be too good to go down
* WBA should win promotion
* Plymouth are erratic
Remaining games as follows:
Today: WBA v Plymouth
4th March: Charlton v City, Plymouth v Colchester, Sheffield Wednesday v WBA
11th March: City v Watford, Scunthorpe v Plymouth
15th March: City v Plymouth, Watford v Stoke
21st March: Charlton v WBA
22nd March: Plymouth v Watford
29th March: Sheffield Wednesday v Stoke, WBA v Colchester
5th April: Plymouth v Charlton
12th April: WBA v Watford, Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth
19th April: Stoke v City
26th April: Colchester v Stoke, Watford v Scunthorpe
So basically the four games after today (including Leicester next Saturday) are absolutely huge. It's interesting to note that this is a remarkably similar situation to last season and the experience City got last year may be invaluable - in some respects we're actually doing better than we did against top six teams in League 1 during 2006/2007. We've lost fewer games and have conceded fewer goals although to be fair it's also worth pointing out that we've scored fewer.
Some more interesting things about the top six head to head games...
WBA are undefeated at home, so are Stoke. Two of WBA's last three games against the current top six are at home, Stoke have only one left (yeah, City)
Plymouth, Charlton and Watford haven't won at home. Watford only have one opportunity left while Plymouth and Charlton have two.
Stoke and Watford haven't won away. Stoke's last away game against the current top six is at Watford, the Hornets still have to travel to City and WBA.
City have the tightest home defence in these games (two goals conceded), Watford have the worst (seven). WBA have scored the most home goals (nine, including four against City and Charlton), Watford and City have only scored twice at home against other top six clubs,
Watford have the tightest away defence (two goals), Charlton have the worst away defence (seven goals). WBA have scored the most goals away from home (seven), Watford have only managed two.
Most common result: 1-1, four times
Home wins: seven (biggest: WBA 4 Bristol City 1) accounting for 35%
Draws: seven (again, 35%)
Away wins: six (biggest: Watford 0, WBA 3), 30% of the games so far
No team has won both games against any opponents (yet).
So what's going to happen?
I'd love to see City go up again. Three of the top six have been in the Premier League in the last four years and the pressure is on them to get back there, not us. Plymouth have never played in the top tier and Stoke haven't been up there since 1985, five years since we departed.
One thing I've not mentioned yet is the potential impact Bristol Rovers might have on all this. Without spending any time on the full story, WBA have to travel to the Mem for an FA Cup quarter final in a couple of weeks that I fully expect West Brom to win.
So what will the prospect of an FA Cup semi final at Wembley have on their league form? The games are supposed to take place on April 5th, the day they're supposed to be away at Blackpool.
But back to the first paragraph of this section. Here are the outcomes:
* Guaranteed Championship football next season (already achieved)
* Miss out on the play offs on the last day
* Playoffs, but lose in the first round
* Playoffs, but lose at Wembley
* Automatic promotion as play off winners
* Automatic promotion as runners up
* Automatic promotion to the Premier League as Football League Champions (and I can't believe I just wrote that)
I'd like the last one best. I have absolutely no idea yet what will happen, but the romantic version is this:
I went to see the New York Giants play the Miami Dolphins last October. I was wandering around the outside of New Wembley when I saw a Peter Carol coach in the car park - for those of you that don't know, that's the company that runs coaches for City. My immediate thought:
'It's early. It's not May yet.'
So the play off final v Stoke, eight years after they beat us in the Auto Windscreens at the old stadium.
This time...WE win.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Some kind of service resumed...
Well, it's just over four months since I last posted. We had a major personal disappointment a couple of weeks after the last post and to put it into some kind of perspective the various bits and pieces I comment on here didn't really seem that interesting for a while.
Looking back on the blog though, I put a hell of a lot of work into it, there are loads of things to comment on and it seems like a good idea to start again.
So stay tuned...
Looking back on the blog though, I put a hell of a lot of work into it, there are loads of things to comment on and it seems like a good idea to start again.
So stay tuned...
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