Nearly there...

First of all, RIP Alan Ball (1945 - 2007)

Another one of the players I grew up with as a kid in the 1970s passes away: Alan Ball was up there with George Best, Bobby Moore and Billy Bremner. If you get a chance to see the 1966 World Cup Final, watch him - red number 7 jersey. That's what managers mean when they talk about 'having a good engine' and 'work rate'.

Now on to the sublime and the ridiculous. This may be the only blog in the e-niverse that features JaMarcus Russell, Tony Blackburn...and The Wurzels apparently playing some sort of demented ska version of 'I Am A Cider Drinker'. You have been warned.

A simple, yet stark truth to today's proceedings:

A win at Millwall will mean City are up with a game left. Unbelievably, there's a scenario where City could lose and still get promoted...see below.

It's difficult to keep focused on the implications of this, so here are some cold hard facts. Millwall can't make the playoffs now, despite a reasonably impressive run of form which saw them lose only three of their last games and beating Swansea and Nottingham Forest at home. However, they fell on their arses last week after Huddersfield Town beat them 4-2.

I don't imagine for one minute that Millwall won't be up for this, it's their last home game of the season and they'll be relishing the spoiler role.

Here's the scenarios:

City and Forest win: City up
City win, Forest draw: City up
City win, Forest lose: City up
City draw, Forest draw: City up
City draw, Forest lose: City up
City lose, Forest lose: City up

City draw, Forest win: goes to last day
City lose, Forest win: goes to last day
City lose, Forest draw: goes to last day

Not bad. Six of nine possible outcomes are positive.

And I'll be at Ashton Gate today anyway: I'm going to watch Bristol play Gloucester at Rugby. I wasn't quick enough to organise Millwall tickets and I don't want to go to Whitchurch Sports Centre to watch the live beamback. I'll be watching a different game, but I'll be outside and I'll be able to buy beer.

And as the sun begins to set on another football season, the sun begins to rise on another NFL season: the draft begins today although it looks as if NASN won't be carrying it over here...probably a good thing as after the first ten picks it gets a bit dull.

So who's going to be wearing Silver and Black next season: JaMarcus Russell or Calvin Johnson? I'll take either...both would be nice ;-)


JaMarcus Russell:


Calvin Johnson:


DEFINITELY more to come today, although it might be a little...unfocused, regardless of whatever happens.

Madame Zaza gets it right

There's only one automatic place left: congratulations to Scunthorpe United on winning promotion.

At one point this afternoon, it looked likely that City might only have to take two points from the last three games to join them, but Forest came back from two goals down to beat Brentford, so things haven't changed much as City beat Yeovil 2-0. The winner was a penalty from Bradley Orr that Steve Mildenhall almost saved; to say there was a lack of confidence in Orr's ability to convert it would be an understatement...the blokes in front of me turned away. It hit Mildenhall and crept underneath him.

Adriano Basso also made one of the most amazing saves I've ever seen this afternoon. More later. It was so good, time seemed to be suspended as he floated in the air after the catch.

That good.

But I digress. We're four points ahead of Forest with nine points left to play for. To put it as plainly as possible, if City win at Carlisle and Forest lose at home to Bournemouth...well, what are the chances of that happening?

If the season ended today:

Scunthorpe: champions. I think that's a given now. It doesn't matter.
City: automatic promotion.

Play offs: Oldham v Forest, Yeovil v Blackpool. You want spoiler material: Carlisle are a point off the playoffs and Blackpool are on one of those great late season surges of form (four straight wins) that take teams from mid table into the division above.

Still, our destiny is still in our hands, just the way I want it to be.

Oh yeah, we're two weeks into the baseball season in the USA: more of that to come later.

Not for the faint hearted

City drew. Millwall beat Forest. Scunthorpe lost.

Then on Easter Monday it all changed again: City lost.

Situation today: we simply CANNOT afford to lose any more games. We've got Yeovil this afternoon - if we lose and Forest beat already relegated Brentford we're still ahead of Forest by one point, but Yeovil would be three points behind us with three games left to play. Here's some objectivity for you (a very scarce commodity round here at the moment): having mentioned a couple of posts ago that Yeovil's away record against the top six is not that good, they've recently lost to Scunny and Oldham away and Blackpool at home. William Hill has a City win at 8/11, 12/5 the draw and 3/1 Yeovil win.

If Scunthorpe beat Huddersfield, they're up. Similar kind of odds for Scunny as City have.

Forest need to beat Brentford, but there are injury problems for both sides.

Madame Zaza predicts: congratulations to Scunthorpe United for reaching the top half of the league since 1964.

And I will curse the day that smoking and standing were outlawed at Ashton Gate. If there was ever a day for both, it's today. I will report back later.

...it's so close it's almost unbearable.

Here's the situation today...

We have six games left to play and are currently in second place, four points ahead of Nottingham Forest, who we drew with last week. There's a four point gap between Forest and Oldham, so there's an eight point gap between City and Oldham.

Scunthorpe are seven points clear at the top having beaten Yeovil yesterday.

Today we're playing Swansea, who are four points off the last play off place.

If the season finished today:

Scunthorpe - champions
City - automatic promotion

First round of the playoffs:

Blackpool v Forest
Yeovil v Oldham

(Winners to meet in the final at The New Wembley, which is now finished and open for business.)

The only games that matter today: City v Swansea and Millwall v Nottingham Forest.

Best case scenario: City win and Forest lose. Instant seven point gap with four games left.

Worst case scenario: City lose and Forest win. One point gap with four games left.

According to William Hill, City are favourites to win, but it's far less clear in SE London. The draw (12/5) looks good value, but I'm almost tempted to bet on Forest at 13/10.

There are 45 minutes to go before kick off and I am really nervous.

There'll be a big update, probably either on Sunday or Monday...