City lost for the first time this season, 3-0 at Barnsley. We've got Sheffield United at home later on (as in 5.20pm on Sky Sports) and they've not won down here since March 1971.
Or to put it another way, since this was Number 1:
...and that's a very long time ago indeed. Madame Zaza finds this a difficult one to call as although we're undefeated at home, we've only won once. The Blades have only picked up one away point this season (a 2-2 draw at Blackpool) but don't seem to have any trouble scoring away from home having scored two goals in their last three aways. We don't need to win as much as they do, but I still fancy a draw...even though I'm not going to bet on it, like I did last week.
Right, smashing my way through College Football...
No. 1 LSU (5-0) at home vs No.9 (and reigning National Champions) Florida. Obviously game of the week, but because baseball is in playoff mode, unless I tape it 'as live' at 3:30pm on Sunday I won't see it. Shouldn't be that hard to avoid the result as we're staying at friends tonight after playing poker and we're having lunch at my in laws tomorrow.
FSU (3-1, 4th in the ACC Atlantic Division) v North Carolina State (1-4). My bet is looking anything but secure at the moment...all because of a slip of the mouse at the start of the season. 5-0 Boston College leading the way in the Atlantic Division.
Michigan (3-2, currently undefeated in the Big Ten but in fourth place) v Eastern Michigan (2-3). Still a lot to play for here, but Big Blue are looking like a bit of a long shot. The undefeated pair of Ohio State and Wisconsin are leading the way.
Right, I'm off to collect my bike from the shop - the chain snapped on Friday, almost two years since I destroyed the last one.
To finish: Jimmy Hill!
You bloody tell 'em Jim!
Saturday, October 06, 2007
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Sweet
I lost £5 on this game, but for obvious reasons I don't care. Major update to follow.
Congrats to Cov, who knocked ManYoo out of the League Cup.
Congrats to Cov, who knocked ManYoo out of the League Cup.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Nobody saw this coming!
Shabby Peasant has left Chelsea.
Oh well. I'm not that bothered.
Last weeks wins: Manyoo, City, Derby (?), Preston, Green Bay (though I don't know why I thought they were playing the Bears), San Francisco, Denver (in overtime - the Raiders are getting better!), Tampa Bay (phew), the Cheating Yankee Bastards, Baltimore Ravens, Michigan (who shut out Notre Dame), LSU (shut out Middle Tennessee) and FSU (beat Colorado 16-6)
Here's what cheating looks like:
And this is wonderful:
So, the weekend comes, my cycle hums, ready to race to you...so let's do College Football first because I have fewer teams to track.
Michigan v Penn State
This is a huge game anyway, but in the context of Michigan winning the Big Ten it's suddenly a lot bigger. If the Wolverines win it makes them 2-2 but more importantly 1-0 in the conference. If Penn State wins, they go to 4-0 and 1-0 in the conference. Michigan has won the last eight, but the Nittany Lions will go after them having seen them give up 30 points in their opening games. Even though my money's on Michigan for the Big Ten, I think Penn State will win this one.
This is a radio game for me as NASN isn't carrying it. Darn. They are carrying LSU v South Carolina 'as live' but as this also kicks off at 8:30pm GMT then it's going to be impossible avoiding the score. Both teams are 3-0 and 1-0 in the SEC East, but LSU haven't lost to the Gamecocks at home since 1994. I'm pretty sure LSU will win, but I don't think they'll put 40 points on South Carolina.
FSU are putting their feet up this weekend in order to prepare for Alabama next weekend.
Oh well. I'm not that bothered.
Last weeks wins: Manyoo, City, Derby (?), Preston, Green Bay (though I don't know why I thought they were playing the Bears), San Francisco, Denver (in overtime - the Raiders are getting better!), Tampa Bay (phew), the Cheating Yankee Bastards, Baltimore Ravens, Michigan (who shut out Notre Dame), LSU (shut out Middle Tennessee) and FSU (beat Colorado 16-6)
Here's what cheating looks like:
And this is wonderful:
So, the weekend comes, my cycle hums, ready to race to you...so let's do College Football first because I have fewer teams to track.
Michigan v Penn State
This is a huge game anyway, but in the context of Michigan winning the Big Ten it's suddenly a lot bigger. If the Wolverines win it makes them 2-2 but more importantly 1-0 in the conference. If Penn State wins, they go to 4-0 and 1-0 in the conference. Michigan has won the last eight, but the Nittany Lions will go after them having seen them give up 30 points in their opening games. Even though my money's on Michigan for the Big Ten, I think Penn State will win this one.
This is a radio game for me as NASN isn't carrying it. Darn. They are carrying LSU v South Carolina 'as live' but as this also kicks off at 8:30pm GMT then it's going to be impossible avoiding the score. Both teams are 3-0 and 1-0 in the SEC East, but LSU haven't lost to the Gamecocks at home since 1994. I'm pretty sure LSU will win, but I don't think they'll put 40 points on South Carolina.
FSU are putting their feet up this weekend in order to prepare for Alabama next weekend.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Elitism
I'm not going to bother with the bottom two divisions in the Football League this season as I no longer have any interest in them. I hope I don't look back on this in a years' time and regret writing this. Early indications show that I might not, but 'football...bloody hell!' to quote Alex Ferguson...which brings me nicely on to...
Division 1 Game Of The Week: Everton v Man Utd
United basically won the championship last season with their come from behind win at Goodison Park. Although it's a bit early in the proceedings for this game to have that kind of impact it's still a must win for United and a must win for Everton if they're going to be taken seriously. ESPN Soccernet is reporting that Wayne Rooney will be in the ManYoo squad although whether he's there to play or to wind up Everton fans is another matter.
Division 2 Game Of The Week: Coventry City v Bristol City
And deservedly so. First v Third; we knocked Cov out of the FA Cup last season and they won't have liked that.
Division 1 One Sided Nonsense: Derby v Newcastle
Anti-game of the week because Derby are probably this year's Watford and Michael Owen is on a hot streak after scoring a brace against the Soviet Union on Wednesday. Not surprisingly, Newcastle are favourites.
Division 2 One Sided Nonsense: Leicester v QPR
But only because there are four points between them...which isn't saying much.
Division 2 Down Upside Is League Football The: Preston v Sheffield Wednesday
Both these clubs were either in or hovering around the playoffs last season and now they are the bottom two. You wouldn't expect this to last, but you never know. The Wendies looked poor when we beat them a couple of weeks ago.
So what, who cares:
Orient are top of Division 3. Some team called Nottingham Forest are currently 20th, which is worse than Bristol Rovers (who lost 3-0 at home to Leeds last night). Colin 'Fcuk Off' Calderwood is still Forest manager, but for how much longer?
If anyone cares (and I don't anymore) Darlington and Chesterfield are top of Division 4.
Futbol Americano
This season I'm just going to concentrate on the teams who I've backed in the NFL and the BCS and so far - after one game - things are decidedly mixed.
The Packers, Steelers, 49ers and Broncos all won in Week 1 and all have a reasonable chance of doing the same thing this weekend. If the Packers beat the Bears, the NFC Central becomes extremely interesting as there will be two teams with 2-0 records: if they don't the winner of Minnesota v Detroit will lead the division. Despite Chicago reaching the Superbowl last season, this division is not a strong one - hence the bet on Green Bay.
The Raiders travel to Denver. Josh McCown is allegedly out for three weeks so I imagine Dante Culpepper will start, backed up by Andrew Walter and with newly signed JaMarcus Russell as the third option. Great. The Broncos by about a zillion.
Tampa, Jacksonville and Philadelphia all lost. The Buccs have a tough game against the Saints, the loser will be 0-2 and it'll be time for all those statistical cliches to appear on Tuesday. The Jaguars should beat Atlanta and I expect Philly to beat a Redskins team that only won in overtime last weekend.
There are a couple of other games worth keeping an eye on. The Cheating Yankee Bastards have San Diego at home but arguably the most intriguing game of the week is the Jets travelling to Baltimore. The loser drops to 0-2 and although Jets QB Chad Pennington will not be playing, there are all sorts of wild rumours that Ravens LB Ray Lewis may be out for the season. I'm conflicted by this. I have the Ravens D in my fantasy league (I also drafted the Packers D for 'insurance purposes') and hopefully Baltimore will play well - but not well enough - to stop the Steelers from winning the division and therefore preventing me from collecting my bet.
The Cheating Yankee Bastards got their reward (sorry, punishment) yesterday and now - not surprisingly - their Superbowl wins are under scrutiny.
In a parallel sporting universe, another cheating case came to something of a conclusion this week. This will probably be the first and only time that Formula One makes it into this blog but the McLaren team and the CYBs were both caught doing something they shouldn't in order to increase their 'competitive edge'. This is what can happen when you don't play nice.
Arguably the simplest way to increase your competitive edge is to win a game. So it's rather bemusing to report that Michigan plays Notre Dame later in a game that one of them has to win. Both teams are 0-2 and although I saw the Michigan/Oregon game last week I've not seen ND yet...but both teams may be really awful.
LSU welcomes Middle Tennessee. This could get ugly early but although they lost the Blue Raiders put 42 points on Louisville last week. LSU will still win and there will be a lot of points.
FSU is in Boulder, CO for a game at...well, Colorado. Both teams are 1-1 and this is Colorado's home opener.
I'm going to a wedding party tonight so the next post may well be on Monday. I've got a day off and I'm going to fritter it away ;-)
Oh yeah, England Egg Chasers were shut out to the tune of 33 points by Sarth Effrika in the Ruggery World Cup on Friday. I can gloat at the moment, but I wouldn't be surprised if Wales get stuffed by a similar score by Oz today.
Division 1 Game Of The Week: Everton v Man Utd
United basically won the championship last season with their come from behind win at Goodison Park. Although it's a bit early in the proceedings for this game to have that kind of impact it's still a must win for United and a must win for Everton if they're going to be taken seriously. ESPN Soccernet is reporting that Wayne Rooney will be in the ManYoo squad although whether he's there to play or to wind up Everton fans is another matter.
Division 2 Game Of The Week: Coventry City v Bristol City
And deservedly so. First v Third; we knocked Cov out of the FA Cup last season and they won't have liked that.
Division 1 One Sided Nonsense: Derby v Newcastle
Anti-game of the week because Derby are probably this year's Watford and Michael Owen is on a hot streak after scoring a brace against the Soviet Union on Wednesday. Not surprisingly, Newcastle are favourites.
Division 2 One Sided Nonsense: Leicester v QPR
But only because there are four points between them...which isn't saying much.
Division 2 Down Upside Is League Football The: Preston v Sheffield Wednesday
Both these clubs were either in or hovering around the playoffs last season and now they are the bottom two. You wouldn't expect this to last, but you never know. The Wendies looked poor when we beat them a couple of weeks ago.
So what, who cares:
Orient are top of Division 3. Some team called Nottingham Forest are currently 20th, which is worse than Bristol Rovers (who lost 3-0 at home to Leeds last night). Colin 'Fcuk Off' Calderwood is still Forest manager, but for how much longer?
If anyone cares (and I don't anymore) Darlington and Chesterfield are top of Division 4.
Futbol Americano
This season I'm just going to concentrate on the teams who I've backed in the NFL and the BCS and so far - after one game - things are decidedly mixed.
The Packers, Steelers, 49ers and Broncos all won in Week 1 and all have a reasonable chance of doing the same thing this weekend. If the Packers beat the Bears, the NFC Central becomes extremely interesting as there will be two teams with 2-0 records: if they don't the winner of Minnesota v Detroit will lead the division. Despite Chicago reaching the Superbowl last season, this division is not a strong one - hence the bet on Green Bay.
The Raiders travel to Denver. Josh McCown is allegedly out for three weeks so I imagine Dante Culpepper will start, backed up by Andrew Walter and with newly signed JaMarcus Russell as the third option. Great. The Broncos by about a zillion.
Tampa, Jacksonville and Philadelphia all lost. The Buccs have a tough game against the Saints, the loser will be 0-2 and it'll be time for all those statistical cliches to appear on Tuesday. The Jaguars should beat Atlanta and I expect Philly to beat a Redskins team that only won in overtime last weekend.
There are a couple of other games worth keeping an eye on. The Cheating Yankee Bastards have San Diego at home but arguably the most intriguing game of the week is the Jets travelling to Baltimore. The loser drops to 0-2 and although Jets QB Chad Pennington will not be playing, there are all sorts of wild rumours that Ravens LB Ray Lewis may be out for the season. I'm conflicted by this. I have the Ravens D in my fantasy league (I also drafted the Packers D for 'insurance purposes') and hopefully Baltimore will play well - but not well enough - to stop the Steelers from winning the division and therefore preventing me from collecting my bet.
The Cheating Yankee Bastards got their reward (sorry, punishment) yesterday and now - not surprisingly - their Superbowl wins are under scrutiny.
In a parallel sporting universe, another cheating case came to something of a conclusion this week. This will probably be the first and only time that Formula One makes it into this blog but the McLaren team and the CYBs were both caught doing something they shouldn't in order to increase their 'competitive edge'. This is what can happen when you don't play nice.
Arguably the simplest way to increase your competitive edge is to win a game. So it's rather bemusing to report that Michigan plays Notre Dame later in a game that one of them has to win. Both teams are 0-2 and although I saw the Michigan/Oregon game last week I've not seen ND yet...but both teams may be really awful.
LSU welcomes Middle Tennessee. This could get ugly early but although they lost the Blue Raiders put 42 points on Louisville last week. LSU will still win and there will be a lot of points.
FSU is in Boulder, CO for a game at...well, Colorado. Both teams are 1-1 and this is Colorado's home opener.
I'm going to a wedding party tonight so the next post may well be on Monday. I've got a day off and I'm going to fritter it away ;-)
Oh yeah, England Egg Chasers were shut out to the tune of 33 points by Sarth Effrika in the Ruggery World Cup on Friday. I can gloat at the moment, but I wouldn't be surprised if Wales get stuffed by a similar score by Oz today.
Beating Charstards
It's all very well having multiple divisional championships, conference championships and Superbowl wins, but the N*w Engl*nd P*triots are also (allegedly...so far) a bunch of cheats.
They were caught stealing Jets defensive signals last weekend and according to this slightly tongue in cheek article, this isn't the first time this has happened. The Football Outsiders thread on this issue is worth reading too.
My take on this: anything that can help the rest of the league stop them is a good thing. I've never liked them and I don't intend changing that now. Here's the main reason I don't like them:
And here's a reason to rejoice:
To close the matter for the moment, this is what class looks and sounds like, Patriots fans. I was lucky enough to see Walter Payton play in person, at the inaugural American Bowl in London about six months after this interview.
Finally, a story that seemed bleak at the start of the week has now improved somewhat. Good luck to Kevin Everett.
I'll attempt some sort of round ball football update tomorrow as I've got a half day off.
They were caught stealing Jets defensive signals last weekend and according to this slightly tongue in cheek article, this isn't the first time this has happened. The Football Outsiders thread on this issue is worth reading too.
My take on this: anything that can help the rest of the league stop them is a good thing. I've never liked them and I don't intend changing that now. Here's the main reason I don't like them:
And here's a reason to rejoice:To close the matter for the moment, this is what class looks and sounds like, Patriots fans. I was lucky enough to see Walter Payton play in person, at the inaugural American Bowl in London about six months after this interview.Finally, a story that seemed bleak at the start of the week has now improved somewhat. Good luck to Kevin Everett.
I'll attempt some sort of round ball football update tomorrow as I've got a half day off.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
The Hand Of Fate...
OK, here's what's happening with the NCAA bets so far:
LSU 1-0, beat Mississippi State 45-0. Looking good so far...facing 1-0 Virginia Tech in Baton Rouge this Saturday. 1-0 in SEC West. As the VTech game isn't a conference game, they could actually afford to drop this one, but as this could also be some sort of National Championship preview this is unlikely.
FSU 0-1, lost 14-28 to Clemson. 0-1 in conference games. Not too clever; they take on UAB in Tallahassee this weekend. This could get ugly quickly as FSU looks to rebound; I'll know more about where they are in the ACC after they play their next conference game (against North Carolina State on 6th October).
Michigan: 0-1, lost to Appalachian State. It's a damn good job that this wasn't a conference game and it's probably a damn good job that this weekend's opponents aren't in the Big Ten either. The bad news: Oregon beat Houston last weekend and Big Blue tumbled out of just about every poll in existence. Some more good news: the game is live on NASN at 8:30pm GMT Saturday night! Whooo! Alright! Rock and Roll etc.
The NFL starts properly this weekend too. There's too much going on already. Nothing for months then everything at once. Typical.
More to come, including a possible preview of a game I turned down tickets for: England v Israel this weekend in the qualifiers for Euro 2008.
And possibly some posh boy egg chasing, although New Zealand seem to have that tied up already and the tournament hasn't even started. Who they beat in the final would seem to be the more interesting prop.
Oh yeah, City are third in the Championship. It won't last, but so what.
LSU 1-0, beat Mississippi State 45-0. Looking good so far...facing 1-0 Virginia Tech in Baton Rouge this Saturday. 1-0 in SEC West. As the VTech game isn't a conference game, they could actually afford to drop this one, but as this could also be some sort of National Championship preview this is unlikely.
FSU 0-1, lost 14-28 to Clemson. 0-1 in conference games. Not too clever; they take on UAB in Tallahassee this weekend. This could get ugly quickly as FSU looks to rebound; I'll know more about where they are in the ACC after they play their next conference game (against North Carolina State on 6th October).
Michigan: 0-1, lost to Appalachian State. It's a damn good job that this wasn't a conference game and it's probably a damn good job that this weekend's opponents aren't in the Big Ten either. The bad news: Oregon beat Houston last weekend and Big Blue tumbled out of just about every poll in existence. Some more good news: the game is live on NASN at 8:30pm GMT Saturday night! Whooo! Alright! Rock and Roll etc.
The NFL starts properly this weekend too. There's too much going on already. Nothing for months then everything at once. Typical.
More to come, including a possible preview of a game I turned down tickets for: England v Israel this weekend in the qualifiers for Euro 2008.
And possibly some posh boy egg chasing, although New Zealand seem to have that tied up already and the tournament hasn't even started. Who they beat in the final would seem to be the more interesting prop.
Oh yeah, City are third in the Championship. It won't last, but so what.
Sunday, September 02, 2007
Early analysis: The Hand Of Fate
For a few glorious hours, City were top of The Championship after beating Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 thanks to a goal from Brian Wilson.
No, not that Brian Wilson.
I celebrated by sinking a few whilst watching College Game Day followed by Virginia Tech vs East Carolina (which pitched a very unconvincing VTech team against a scrappy and competitive ECU team) and then it was over. FSU doesn't play until Monday, but a convincing win for them and the hand of fate may have the upper hand.
Coventry (our next opponents, who will probably be looking for payback for knocking them out of last season's FA Cup) beat Preston 2-1 but we're third and we're undefeated.
Meanwhile, a long way away in Ann Arbor, MI a major as in MAJOR upset in College football was occurring. They really don't get any bigger than this: Appalachian State won at Michigan.
Here's some perspective for those of you that don't know what I'm talking about. App State is from what used to be called Division 1AA, but is now known as the 'Football Championship Subdivision' which is effectively the same sort of relationship to Division 1 as The Championship has towards the Premier League. I don't know if this rebranding was influenced by the round ball game in this country but it smells funny.
There's a big difference between 1A and FCS though...basically fewer scholarships, less money and a lot less media coverage. Also you can't be promoted or relegated from Division 1 although you can move up from FCS to 1A permanently but I'm not going to bore you with how or why.
All you need to know is that Appalachian State won consecutive FCS/Div1AA titles in the last two seasons and were getting $400,000 from Michigan for scheduling the game. Oh and I bet $10 that Michigan would win the Big Ten, whereas I might have been better off giving my money to a total stranger. Having said that, one game does not make a season and one non-conference defeat to a supposedly minor team doesn't actually change their chances of winning the conference. But they're going to be embarrassed when the polls come out next week (they were ranked number 5) and their next opponents (Oregon) beat Houston 48-27.
Autumn Thunder is probably the best Michigan blog to read right now as the others are in some kind of denial phase...or still out drinking themselves stupid because it's not even 2:00am in that area yet.
More later but remember this, sports fans: although headline grabbing 'David beats Goliath' stories are part of all games, we've all suffered really awful losses at some time or another.
Like being beaten in the Play Off Final by Brighton, which makes being top of Division 2 (the highest league place for nearly three decades) even for a few hours worth all the pain, heartache and frustration seem worth it.
BTW, Bama won (they beat their FCS opponents) and ND lost (at home to Georgia Tech by 30 points), which is what I thought might happen. UNLV won as well! First away win for three years!
No, not that Brian Wilson.I celebrated by sinking a few whilst watching College Game Day followed by Virginia Tech vs East Carolina (which pitched a very unconvincing VTech team against a scrappy and competitive ECU team) and then it was over. FSU doesn't play until Monday, but a convincing win for them and the hand of fate may have the upper hand.
Coventry (our next opponents, who will probably be looking for payback for knocking them out of last season's FA Cup) beat Preston 2-1 but we're third and we're undefeated.
Meanwhile, a long way away in Ann Arbor, MI a major as in MAJOR upset in College football was occurring. They really don't get any bigger than this: Appalachian State won at Michigan.
Here's some perspective for those of you that don't know what I'm talking about. App State is from what used to be called Division 1AA, but is now known as the 'Football Championship Subdivision' which is effectively the same sort of relationship to Division 1 as The Championship has towards the Premier League. I don't know if this rebranding was influenced by the round ball game in this country but it smells funny.
There's a big difference between 1A and FCS though...basically fewer scholarships, less money and a lot less media coverage. Also you can't be promoted or relegated from Division 1 although you can move up from FCS to 1A permanently but I'm not going to bore you with how or why.
All you need to know is that Appalachian State won consecutive FCS/Div1AA titles in the last two seasons and were getting $400,000 from Michigan for scheduling the game. Oh and I bet $10 that Michigan would win the Big Ten, whereas I might have been better off giving my money to a total stranger. Having said that, one game does not make a season and one non-conference defeat to a supposedly minor team doesn't actually change their chances of winning the conference. But they're going to be embarrassed when the polls come out next week (they were ranked number 5) and their next opponents (Oregon) beat Houston 48-27.
Autumn Thunder is probably the best Michigan blog to read right now as the others are in some kind of denial phase...or still out drinking themselves stupid because it's not even 2:00am in that area yet.
More later but remember this, sports fans: although headline grabbing 'David beats Goliath' stories are part of all games, we've all suffered really awful losses at some time or another.
Like being beaten in the Play Off Final by Brighton, which makes being top of Division 2 (the highest league place for nearly three decades) even for a few hours worth all the pain, heartache and frustration seem worth it.
BTW, Bama won (they beat their FCS opponents) and ND lost (at home to Georgia Tech by 30 points), which is what I thought might happen. UNLV won as well! First away win for three years!
Saturday, September 01, 2007
Fame!
Mrs MSK has just appeared on Soccer AM having submitted this screenshot to Third Eye which she took during City's defeat by Manchester City during the week...
Sky showed the footage from the game (which is even funnier) and if I can find it I'll post it.
NB: this is the same photo that appeared on OTIB.co.uk on Tuesday night because it was Mrs MSK who took that too. I was at the game, so I can't take all the credit for it ;-)
Anyway, we've got another game on TV in about half an hour - against bottom of the table Sheffield Wednesday. If we win, we go top for our highest league position for 27 years.
LOL, I've just had a king high club flush crushed but that was OK because it was after I'd withdrawn the resources to place my bets on College Football. However, fate intervened in a strange way when I was putting the money on...I'd intended to put some money on Virginia Tech to win the ACC but my hand and the mouse conspired to put it on Florida State instead!
The hand of fate or a dumb mistake? Time will tell!
Sky showed the footage from the game (which is even funnier) and if I can find it I'll post it.
NB: this is the same photo that appeared on OTIB.co.uk on Tuesday night because it was Mrs MSK who took that too. I was at the game, so I can't take all the credit for it ;-)
Anyway, we've got another game on TV in about half an hour - against bottom of the table Sheffield Wednesday. If we win, we go top for our highest league position for 27 years.
LOL, I've just had a king high club flush crushed but that was OK because it was after I'd withdrawn the resources to place my bets on College Football. However, fate intervened in a strange way when I was putting the money on...I'd intended to put some money on Virginia Tech to win the ACC but my hand and the mouse conspired to put it on Florida State instead!
The hand of fate or a dumb mistake? Time will tell!
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Everything is back!
Whooooooooooo! I'm excited!!!
OK, here's the City situation. Two league games, two points, three goals...and yesterday morning I was in a queue for tickets for the second round Carling Cup game against Premier League leaders Manchester City.
Yes, that sentence is correct. Looking back on the posts from last season and looking at what's already happening it really is another world in the Championship. We've got England U21 v Romania U21 at the Gate tonight (more Sky money), the Man City game is on Sky (more money) as are the home games against Sheffield United and the away game at Sheffield Wednesday. Even more TV money.
Without wanting to sound triumphalist (remembering what happened last time we were at this level), this is some kind of reward for all those lack luster performances, all those rubbish games, just missing out on promotion and losing in the play offs. This is such a wonderful opportunity for everyone connected with the club.
And now...Madama Zaza presents her NFL Divisional and College Football predictions!
(First price is willhill.com, second price is bet365)
AFC East: New England Patriots (1/4 & 2/9)
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (11/4 & 12/5) or Baltimore Ravens (13/8*)
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (4/1*)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (9/4 or 2/1 ) or San Diego Chargers (4/7 or 8/13)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (6/4 or 7/4)
NFC North: Green Bay Packers (11/2*)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6/1)
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks (11/8 or 7/5) or San Francisco 49ers (2/1 or 11/4)
Some surprises there! I like the Eagles at and the 49ers prices but the Chargers' price looks silly and doesn't take into account Norv Turner taking over from Marty Schottenheimer. Signficantly, bet365 hasn't got a line for the NFC South...perhaps because nobody knows who the Falcons quarterback will be. More of that another day.
As for College, willhill.com will only take bets on the BCS Championship whereas bet365 will let you punt on individual conferences. So here's MZ's tips:
Big XII: Oklahoma (9/4) (key date: 13th October - OU v Missouri)
Pac 10: USC (2/5)
SEC: LSU (5/4)
Big X: Michigan (2/1)
ACC: Virginia Tech (11/5) or Florida State (2/1) (Nov 10th: FSU at VT)
The Whole Thing: USC
Phew. I need a lie down!
OK, here's the City situation. Two league games, two points, three goals...and yesterday morning I was in a queue for tickets for the second round Carling Cup game against Premier League leaders Manchester City.
Yes, that sentence is correct. Looking back on the posts from last season and looking at what's already happening it really is another world in the Championship. We've got England U21 v Romania U21 at the Gate tonight (more Sky money), the Man City game is on Sky (more money) as are the home games against Sheffield United and the away game at Sheffield Wednesday. Even more TV money.
Without wanting to sound triumphalist (remembering what happened last time we were at this level), this is some kind of reward for all those lack luster performances, all those rubbish games, just missing out on promotion and losing in the play offs. This is such a wonderful opportunity for everyone connected with the club.
And now...Madama Zaza presents her NFL Divisional and College Football predictions!
(First price is willhill.com, second price is bet365)
AFC East: New England Patriots (1/4 & 2/9)
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (11/4 & 12/5) or Baltimore Ravens (13/8*)
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (4/1*)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (9/4 or 2/1 ) or San Diego Chargers (4/7 or 8/13)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (6/4 or 7/4)
NFC North: Green Bay Packers (11/2*)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6/1)
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks (11/8 or 7/5) or San Francisco 49ers (2/1 or 11/4)
Some surprises there! I like the Eagles at and the 49ers prices but the Chargers' price looks silly and doesn't take into account Norv Turner taking over from Marty Schottenheimer. Signficantly, bet365 hasn't got a line for the NFC South...perhaps because nobody knows who the Falcons quarterback will be. More of that another day.
As for College, willhill.com will only take bets on the BCS Championship whereas bet365 will let you punt on individual conferences. So here's MZ's tips:
Big XII: Oklahoma (9/4) (key date: 13th October - OU v Missouri)
Pac 10: USC (2/5)
SEC: LSU (5/4)
Big X: Michigan (2/1)
ACC: Virginia Tech (11/5) or Florida State (2/1) (Nov 10th: FSU at VT)
The Whole Thing: USC
Phew. I need a lie down!
Sunday, July 22, 2007
Michael Vick: WTF?
Michael Vick is making headlines for all the wrong reasons.
My take: I agree with Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia: dogfighting is a barbaric activity and if the charges against Vick are proven then he's in a lot of trouble. He's in a massive sh1tstorm anyway.
On a more positive note, it's great to see an AFC West preview appearing on the Kansas City Chiefs site that begins with:
'It’s time for the AFC West to start worrying about the Oakland Raiders again.'
It's not because raiders.com added two more languages to the site this week either.
I noticed the dinosaur story from the San Jose Mercury News and here it is. For years now I've subscribed to the theory that Neanderthals weren't killed off en masse by Homo Sapiens, but might have been gradually absorbed into the more dominant species - although restricted diet and economic factors have also been put forward. I wonder if this could be a similar idea?
Anyway, today's theory: dinosaurs were more humane than Michael Vick. Discuss.
My take: I agree with Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia: dogfighting is a barbaric activity and if the charges against Vick are proven then he's in a lot of trouble. He's in a massive sh1tstorm anyway.
On a more positive note, it's great to see an AFC West preview appearing on the Kansas City Chiefs site that begins with:
'It’s time for the AFC West to start worrying about the Oakland Raiders again.'
It's not because raiders.com added two more languages to the site this week either.
I noticed the dinosaur story from the San Jose Mercury News and here it is. For years now I've subscribed to the theory that Neanderthals weren't killed off en masse by Homo Sapiens, but might have been gradually absorbed into the more dominant species - although restricted diet and economic factors have also been put forward. I wonder if this could be a similar idea?
Anyway, today's theory: dinosaurs were more humane than Michael Vick. Discuss.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
A long, long time ago...
Create Your Own PaloozaHead - Visit Lollapalooza.com
LOL, get over there. Thanks to my mate The Chapel for the link...this WAS me about 20-25 years ago.
Monday, July 09, 2007
Hail To The RedCoats
The RedCoats made the playoffs in the EFL after a 7-5 seaon, here's the report:London
Deep.
7-3 to Lexington with not even five minutes gone.
Actually, I will share them with you. Here's a link to Dave Scharf's book. They're all in there and I thoroughly recommend it.
I am not quite sure what to do with my dollar yet, although it has invoked the 'if you win, you need to at least make a deposit' rule.
Sunday, July 08, 2007
The Sprout has landed
Ivor Sprout arrived recently and I forgot to tell you. He's fast, has a bit of a temper and scores goals. He also has two songs:
'He's here, he's there, he's fukc1n9 everywhere' and 'I can't help falling in love with Sproule'.
500k according to rumours. If he can score the winner against Cardiff, he will walk with the gods.
Saturday, July 07, 2007
Freerolls and other thoughts
Without giving anything away, I've been making some on line poker observations recently.
I had the most success at at small stakes pot limit tables. That shouldn't come as a complete shock. I also won some cash at a new player free roll.
Worst: the William Hill free rolls. The game speed is glacial and the rewards are so low as to be not worth the effort. I've been scraping into the top 30% of players by doing extremely little and to be honest there have been a couple of times when I've invoked the mercy rule and bet wildly on hands that aren't worth it just to finish the game.
Seems to me that free rolls generally are a bit of a crap shoot...errr...I hope you see what I mean there. I'm thinking of doing an experiment to see how far I can get with auto fold/muck switched on, although to be fair to those players who enjoy participating in them it's probably better if I don't play free rolls at all. To paraphrase a football manager whose name escapes me, you get nowt for coming 489th.
Bit of an update: I had another incredibly small scale success in a $1 Buy In Bet365 No Limit Tournament. I placed 40th of 434 and won a massive $5.04, but it was the most exhilarating £2.50 I've ever won. I went all in a couple of times when I was about to crash out, won the biggest pot in my short online poker history ($13.2k) and generally had a whale of a time, including a 20 minute dinner break when the Chinese takeaway arrived. More than made up for the moaning about stuff elsewhere.
Something I would strongly recommend: try to keep accurate stats of how you do in any session you play even if it's play money. I've been doing this with my sessions and to be honest I've made a pretty poor job of it - to the extent that I'm going to junk what I've already done. I might even stop recording my progress in free rolls as I'm obviously not taking them seriously at all.
Fantasy baseball is still going well, I'm still first (I've been top since St George's Day or April 23rd if you don't know when that is) and a rather ridiculous 33% of my roster have been voted to appear for their respective leagues in the annual All Star game. Here are two blokes from my fantasy team that haven't been:
Matt Holliday OF Colorado Rockies
Kelvim Escobar SP Los Angeles Angels
Basically, Holliday is playing for an average team in the less spectacular National League. All his key stats are better than a lot of the players from the American League but it's probably because he doesn't play for one of the glamour teams that he's not been selected by the fickle American public. If he keeps this up, that will change.
I'm not sure why Escobar wasn't picked. He has similar stats to Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers but I think the problem might be because he's had a stint on the Disabled List and - unlike Verlander - he hasn't had a no hitter this year. All he did (on the same day as Verlander got his no hitter) was strike out 14 batters in six innings. I imagine the US press went nuts for Verlander and Escobar's achievement was lost in the shuffle.
Ah well. They're both making more money than I'll ever see, so that's probably some consolation.
I had the most success at at small stakes pot limit tables. That shouldn't come as a complete shock. I also won some cash at a new player free roll.
Worst: the William Hill free rolls. The game speed is glacial and the rewards are so low as to be not worth the effort. I've been scraping into the top 30% of players by doing extremely little and to be honest there have been a couple of times when I've invoked the mercy rule and bet wildly on hands that aren't worth it just to finish the game.
Seems to me that free rolls generally are a bit of a crap shoot...errr...I hope you see what I mean there. I'm thinking of doing an experiment to see how far I can get with auto fold/muck switched on, although to be fair to those players who enjoy participating in them it's probably better if I don't play free rolls at all. To paraphrase a football manager whose name escapes me, you get nowt for coming 489th.
Bit of an update: I had another incredibly small scale success in a $1 Buy In Bet365 No Limit Tournament. I placed 40th of 434 and won a massive $5.04, but it was the most exhilarating £2.50 I've ever won. I went all in a couple of times when I was about to crash out, won the biggest pot in my short online poker history ($13.2k) and generally had a whale of a time, including a 20 minute dinner break when the Chinese takeaway arrived. More than made up for the moaning about stuff elsewhere.
Something I would strongly recommend: try to keep accurate stats of how you do in any session you play even if it's play money. I've been doing this with my sessions and to be honest I've made a pretty poor job of it - to the extent that I'm going to junk what I've already done. I might even stop recording my progress in free rolls as I'm obviously not taking them seriously at all.
Fantasy baseball is still going well, I'm still first (I've been top since St George's Day or April 23rd if you don't know when that is) and a rather ridiculous 33% of my roster have been voted to appear for their respective leagues in the annual All Star game. Here are two blokes from my fantasy team that haven't been:
Matt Holliday OF Colorado RockiesKelvim Escobar SP Los Angeles AngelsBasically, Holliday is playing for an average team in the less spectacular National League. All his key stats are better than a lot of the players from the American League but it's probably because he doesn't play for one of the glamour teams that he's not been selected by the fickle American public. If he keeps this up, that will change.
I'm not sure why Escobar wasn't picked. He has similar stats to Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers but I think the problem might be because he's had a stint on the Disabled List and - unlike Verlander - he hasn't had a no hitter this year. All he did (on the same day as Verlander got his no hitter) was strike out 14 batters in six innings. I imagine the US press went nuts for Verlander and Escobar's achievement was lost in the shuffle.
Ah well. They're both making more money than I'll ever see, so that's probably some consolation.
Saturday, June 23, 2007
Not quite a WSOP bracelet, but...
A $25 win on Bet365 will do, won't it?
I got to the final table of their weekly new player freeroll on Wednesday and fluked fourth spot - there really is no other way of describing it. Having sat in the guaranteed $10 spots for most of the evening I managed to be a penny pinching, cheese grating tight arse and stole fourth when the player in front of me (who had something in the region of twice my chip stack) went all in and lost.
Bingo. Or not ;-)
More to follow.
Here's one for you: according to reports coming from Barcelona this morning, Thierry Henry is off to North Eastern Spain, which now seems to be confirmed. The Arse are 1000-1 to be relegated on William Hill and talking of Arses*, I'm pretty sure this is about to happen too...
Merde. Je departerai aussi.
Oh joy. I've just realised that it's possible that I might be able to buy a Thierry Henry replica Barcelona jersey on holiday. Fantasy Football indeed.
* Third 'arse' of the day. I must be in a good mood.
I got to the final table of their weekly new player freeroll on Wednesday and fluked fourth spot - there really is no other way of describing it. Having sat in the guaranteed $10 spots for most of the evening I managed to be a penny pinching, cheese grating tight arse and stole fourth when the player in front of me (who had something in the region of twice my chip stack) went all in and lost.
Bingo. Or not ;-)
More to follow.
Here's one for you: according to reports coming from Barcelona this morning, Thierry Henry is off to North Eastern Spain, which now seems to be confirmed. The Arse are 1000-1 to be relegated on William Hill and talking of Arses*, I'm pretty sure this is about to happen too...
Merde. Je departerai aussi.Oh joy. I've just realised that it's possible that I might be able to buy a Thierry Henry replica Barcelona jersey on holiday. Fantasy Football indeed.
* Third 'arse' of the day. I must be in a good mood.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Summer's here...so it must be time for...
Poker and baseball, two of the activities I have something of an interest in.
To be honest with myself, the only reason that I've got back into them is because of a lack of anything happening on the football front. There are the usual daft transfer rumours fuelled back the inventiveness of journalists - on one level, Barcelona are supposed to be interested in Arsene Wenger and on another level, City are interested in Hibs and Northern Ireland striker Ivan Sproule.
Ivan Sproule, Ivan Sproule, Ivan, Ivan Sproule,
When gets the boule, he scores a goule...
Obviously I'll let you know if we buy The Sproulemeister, but this is not important now apart from the fact that sightings of Norn Iron replica shirts at The Gate might go up.
Fantasy baseball is going well...too well. I've been top of my Brits only league since St George's Day and currently have a 19 point lead. I'm not going to bore you with the details, but let's just say that spending far too much time and effort on scouting players is paying off. It's fun, it keeps me off the streets and out of the pub etc.
Poker is another matter though. I don't play that often (it's been a while since I played a live home game) but I like to mess about on line - I've been getting back into it recently, but only when I can afford the time.
That's actually a lesson I learned the semi hard way - I probably played cards a little too often at school when I should have been concentrating on my A-levels but hindsight is always a blessing isn't it? Looking back on several periods of my life I've always enjoyed playing cards. I'd love to be good at chess, but I don't have the application for it; draughts is fun but too much like snap...so poker it is then.
Here's what I've been up to recently. I've been blagging on freerolls as I'm too tight to part with real money (although I do play with real money when the mood takes me) and in keeping with my overall description of 'marginally profitable' I've done relatively well. For example, on Sunday I came fourth in a loyalty points freeroll at Pokerworld (admittedly not one of the bigger sites) and I had a funny but rather manic session on Monday where I played simultaneous tournaments at Pokerworld and bet365. So basically, I'm looking for low traffic sites that offer freerolls with small player bases right now. I will report back with any findings, but I finished just outside the scoring positions on Pokerworld (14th of 132) and got bored and went all in to finish off my bet365 session finishing 199th of 3587 players.
The reason why I got bored? I knew I wasn't going to be placed, it was getting late and it was my turn to make the tea.
That's pretty hardcore. Not.
Whether it's deciding on which hat to wear, raising trips on the turn or leaving the table for a comped tuna sandwich, poker is all about decisions.
To be honest with myself, the only reason that I've got back into them is because of a lack of anything happening on the football front. There are the usual daft transfer rumours fuelled back the inventiveness of journalists - on one level, Barcelona are supposed to be interested in Arsene Wenger and on another level, City are interested in Hibs and Northern Ireland striker Ivan Sproule.
Ivan Sproule, Ivan Sproule, Ivan, Ivan Sproule,When gets the boule, he scores a goule...
Obviously I'll let you know if we buy The Sproulemeister, but this is not important now apart from the fact that sightings of Norn Iron replica shirts at The Gate might go up.
Fantasy baseball is going well...too well. I've been top of my Brits only league since St George's Day and currently have a 19 point lead. I'm not going to bore you with the details, but let's just say that spending far too much time and effort on scouting players is paying off. It's fun, it keeps me off the streets and out of the pub etc.
Poker is another matter though. I don't play that often (it's been a while since I played a live home game) but I like to mess about on line - I've been getting back into it recently, but only when I can afford the time.
That's actually a lesson I learned the semi hard way - I probably played cards a little too often at school when I should have been concentrating on my A-levels but hindsight is always a blessing isn't it? Looking back on several periods of my life I've always enjoyed playing cards. I'd love to be good at chess, but I don't have the application for it; draughts is fun but too much like snap...so poker it is then.
Here's what I've been up to recently. I've been blagging on freerolls as I'm too tight to part with real money (although I do play with real money when the mood takes me) and in keeping with my overall description of 'marginally profitable' I've done relatively well. For example, on Sunday I came fourth in a loyalty points freeroll at Pokerworld (admittedly not one of the bigger sites) and I had a funny but rather manic session on Monday where I played simultaneous tournaments at Pokerworld and bet365. So basically, I'm looking for low traffic sites that offer freerolls with small player bases right now. I will report back with any findings, but I finished just outside the scoring positions on Pokerworld (14th of 132) and got bored and went all in to finish off my bet365 session finishing 199th of 3587 players.
The reason why I got bored? I knew I wasn't going to be placed, it was getting late and it was my turn to make the tea.
That's pretty hardcore. Not.
Whether it's deciding on which hat to wear, raising trips on the turn or leaving the table for a comped tuna sandwich, poker is all about decisions.Monday, June 04, 2007
The Dark Time Begins
Football is as good as over. There are a couple of European Nations Cup qualifiers in the next ten days but that's it for a few weeks. Next season has already begun: I’ve already renewed my season ticket. Not surprisingly, it cost more than last season but I'm not going to moan about it.
Anyway, here are some round ball loose ends.
What a dilemma. If they lose, I'm happy. If they win, I get a tenner.
Footage from ESPN Deportes (check out the ticker...)
Sunday, May 06, 2007
Coming Soon: The Championship
We beat Rotherham 3-1, Forest only drew with Crewe - they finished fourth after Blackpool smashed Swansea 6-3 at the Liberty Stadium.
So...we're up. We're in the Championship next season. We did it! Cue Jeff Stelling!
Much more later, but my Friday post was almost ridiculously spot on:
'Three of the four goals Rotherham have scored in their last eight games came in the first 20 minutes, including two in the first ten minutes. If Rotherham are going to score, it'll be early on (ie before ten minutes) or - and this is a particular City weakness in the last eight games - just before half time (three of the six goals conceded at home in the last eight games have been in this period). If Rotherham don't score early on, the chances are that they won't score at all.'
Not quite accurate - Rotherham got their goal in the 58th minute. Now for the spooky bit... If the patterns within Rotherham's away form and City's home form occur tomorrow, City should probably be a goal up half way through the first half (first fifteen minutes seems like a good time), with the possibility of a second before the end of the half. It then becomes more likely that there might be a third before the hour.
David Noble scored in the eighth and 44th minutes. Alex Russell got the third in the 55th minute. Not only was I excited about the way the game was going anyway, I also couldn't believe just how well it went to form.
Of course, the other prediction that was easier to make but still pretty accurate was the one where after the game I meet a couple of mates outside Quba Ice on North Street, drink a lot of San Miguel and sing songs.
Quba Ice before the game and before the urban bullfighting with cars and buses that took place later.There will be more to come...but here's a really good photomontage of a very memorable season to enjoy.
Friday, May 04, 2007
Nearly there...still...
OK, we lost at Millwall and Forest won. So here's the deal:
We beat Rotherham tomorrow and we're up. Forest have to play Crewe at home in what will be Dario Gradi's last game as Crewe manager.
Beat Forest and you'll never need to pay for anything in Bristol again.
But here's the interesting one: there always seems to be one team that comes from absolutely nowhere and this season it's Blackpool. If both City and Forest lose tomorrow, they'll go up.
Here's some stats to mull over:
City v Rotherham
Over the last eight homes, City's record is:
P8 (LOL!) W4 D2 L2 F10 A7 Pts 14
City failed to score twice in those games, against Swansea and Cheltenham. We've kept cleans sheets in half of our last eight home games as well, which is a stat that isn't being as emphasised as it should be. Going back over all 22 home league games this season, our scoring pattern looks like this:
Goals scored:
0 three times - two draws and a defeat
1 - nine times
2 - seven times, most recently in the win over Yeovil
3 - three times - three wins, although the last time we scored three goals at home was in January.
I won't bore you with the details, but the pattern over last eight games looks remarkably similar to that.
In contrast, Rotherham's last eight aways go like this:
W1 D2 L5 F4 A10 Pts 5.
They've failed to score in five of their last eight away games, the last time anyone failed to score against them was when they won at Brentford in March. Their last away clean sheet before that was against Brighton in February, but having seen Brighton in February, that doesn't surprise me.
So trying to be as objective as possible (once again), Rotherham 0 is not entirely out of the question.
So it looks like 1-0 (6/1 at William Hill) or 2-0 (5/1) would probably be realistic. Which would - of course - be enough.
Key points
Three of the four goals Rotherham have scored in their last eight games came in the first 20 minutes, including two in the first ten minutes. If Rotherham are going to score, it'll be early on (ie before ten minutes) or - and this is a particular City weakness in the last eight games - just before half time (three of the six goals conceded at home in the last eight games have been in this period). If Rotherham don't score early on, the chances are that they won't score at all.
If the patterns within Rotherham's away form and City's home form occur tomorrow, City should probably be a goal up half way through the first half (first fifteen minutes seems like a good time), with the possibility of a second before the end of the half. It then becomes more likely that there might be a third before the hour.
So...City need to score early and make sure they don't let Rotherham back in the game before half time.
In other news...
Leeds United will be playing in the third tier of English Football for the first time EVER...which is still frankly astonishing, especially as their decline was so dramatic. The Times has a brief timeline of how it all happened.
The 'All English' Champions League Final will have to wait another day. Not bothered about who wins in Athens in a couple of weeks although I'd pay to see Gennaro Gattuso and Craig Bellamy have a pop at each other.
You just know that Gattuso would have had something to say if necessary.
Don't you just know that Gennaro and Craig were meant for each other...
I'm going to have to change my desktop wallpaper, as Randy Moss was traded to the Patriots on Sunday. I can't bring myself to wish him good luck, so I hope it ends really badly for him.
If you clicked on the link above, you'd also have read that Troy Smith ended up being taken by the Ravens in the fifth round. Well fancy that. I didn't think that he looked anything like a first rounder and I said so:
'I can't remember which one of the ABC/ESPN commentary team (Brent Musberger, Bob Davie and Kirk Herbstreit) was raving about Smith being a first round draft pick now, but it strikes me that this is an extremely premature assessment. There's no doubting that he has the ability, but as I mentioned above, he will need work on handling pressure situations and there are accuracy and consistency issues. He was outstanding in the first half of the game, but dropped off dramatically in the second.'
Madame Zaza, top pro prospect evaluator.
I have no idea what to do with my Randy Moss replica jersey now...perhaps I'll order a brand new JaMarcus Russell one.
The Oakland pick that I'm really intrigued by is that of Michael Bush of Louisville in the fourth round (incidentally, the round that formed part of the Moss trade); way back in November I wished him good luck after he broke his leg in the game against Kentucky. Now almost six months later he's a Raider.
There will be more. There always is.
We beat Rotherham tomorrow and we're up. Forest have to play Crewe at home in what will be Dario Gradi's last game as Crewe manager.
Beat Forest and you'll never need to pay for anything in Bristol again.But here's the interesting one: there always seems to be one team that comes from absolutely nowhere and this season it's Blackpool. If both City and Forest lose tomorrow, they'll go up.
Here's some stats to mull over:
City v Rotherham
Over the last eight homes, City's record is:
P8 (LOL!) W4 D2 L2 F10 A7 Pts 14
City failed to score twice in those games, against Swansea and Cheltenham. We've kept cleans sheets in half of our last eight home games as well, which is a stat that isn't being as emphasised as it should be. Going back over all 22 home league games this season, our scoring pattern looks like this:
Goals scored:
0 three times - two draws and a defeat
1 - nine times
2 - seven times, most recently in the win over Yeovil
3 - three times - three wins, although the last time we scored three goals at home was in January.
I won't bore you with the details, but the pattern over last eight games looks remarkably similar to that.
In contrast, Rotherham's last eight aways go like this:
W1 D2 L5 F4 A10 Pts 5.
They've failed to score in five of their last eight away games, the last time anyone failed to score against them was when they won at Brentford in March. Their last away clean sheet before that was against Brighton in February, but having seen Brighton in February, that doesn't surprise me.
So trying to be as objective as possible (once again), Rotherham 0 is not entirely out of the question.
So it looks like 1-0 (6/1 at William Hill) or 2-0 (5/1) would probably be realistic. Which would - of course - be enough.
Key points
Three of the four goals Rotherham have scored in their last eight games came in the first 20 minutes, including two in the first ten minutes. If Rotherham are going to score, it'll be early on (ie before ten minutes) or - and this is a particular City weakness in the last eight games - just before half time (three of the six goals conceded at home in the last eight games have been in this period). If Rotherham don't score early on, the chances are that they won't score at all.
If the patterns within Rotherham's away form and City's home form occur tomorrow, City should probably be a goal up half way through the first half (first fifteen minutes seems like a good time), with the possibility of a second before the end of the half. It then becomes more likely that there might be a third before the hour.
So...City need to score early and make sure they don't let Rotherham back in the game before half time.
In other news...
Leeds United will be playing in the third tier of English Football for the first time EVER...which is still frankly astonishing, especially as their decline was so dramatic. The Times has a brief timeline of how it all happened.
The 'All English' Champions League Final will have to wait another day. Not bothered about who wins in Athens in a couple of weeks although I'd pay to see Gennaro Gattuso and Craig Bellamy have a pop at each other.
You just know that Gattuso would have had something to say if necessary.Don't you just know that Gennaro and Craig were meant for each other...I'm going to have to change my desktop wallpaper, as Randy Moss was traded to the Patriots on Sunday. I can't bring myself to wish him good luck, so I hope it ends really badly for him.
If you clicked on the link above, you'd also have read that Troy Smith ended up being taken by the Ravens in the fifth round. Well fancy that. I didn't think that he looked anything like a first rounder and I said so:
'I can't remember which one of the ABC/ESPN commentary team (Brent Musberger, Bob Davie and Kirk Herbstreit) was raving about Smith being a first round draft pick now, but it strikes me that this is an extremely premature assessment. There's no doubting that he has the ability, but as I mentioned above, he will need work on handling pressure situations and there are accuracy and consistency issues. He was outstanding in the first half of the game, but dropped off dramatically in the second.'
Madame Zaza, top pro prospect evaluator.
I have no idea what to do with my Randy Moss replica jersey now...perhaps I'll order a brand new JaMarcus Russell one.
The Oakland pick that I'm really intrigued by is that of Michael Bush of Louisville in the fourth round (incidentally, the round that formed part of the Moss trade); way back in November I wished him good luck after he broke his leg in the game against Kentucky. Now almost six months later he's a Raider.
There will be more. There always is.
Saturday, April 28, 2007
Nearly there...
First of all, RIP Alan Ball (1945 - 2007)
Another one of the players I grew up with as a kid in the 1970s passes away: Alan Ball was up there with George Best, Bobby Moore and Billy Bremner. If you get a chance to see the 1966 World Cup Final, watch him - red number 7 jersey. That's what managers mean when they talk about 'having a good engine' and 'work rate'.
Now on to the sublime and the ridiculous. This may be the only blog in the e-niverse that features JaMarcus Russell, Tony Blackburn...and The Wurzels apparently playing some sort of demented ska version of 'I Am A Cider Drinker'. You have been warned.
A simple, yet stark truth to today's proceedings:
A win at Millwall will mean City are up with a game left. Unbelievably, there's a scenario where City could lose and still get promoted...see below.
It's difficult to keep focused on the implications of this, so here are some cold hard facts. Millwall can't make the playoffs now, despite a reasonably impressive run of form which saw them lose only three of their last games and beating Swansea and Nottingham Forest at home. However, they fell on their arses last week after Huddersfield Town beat them 4-2.
I don't imagine for one minute that Millwall won't be up for this, it's their last home game of the season and they'll be relishing the spoiler role.
Here's the scenarios:
City and Forest win: City up
City win, Forest draw: City up
City win, Forest lose: City up
City draw, Forest draw: City up
City draw, Forest lose: City up
City lose, Forest lose: City up
City draw, Forest win: goes to last day
City lose, Forest win: goes to last day
City lose, Forest draw: goes to last day
Not bad. Six of nine possible outcomes are positive.
And I'll be at Ashton Gate today anyway: I'm going to watch Bristol play Gloucester at Rugby. I wasn't quick enough to organise Millwall tickets and I don't want to go to Whitchurch Sports Centre to watch the live beamback. I'll be watching a different game, but I'll be outside and I'll be able to buy beer.
And as the sun begins to set on another football season, the sun begins to rise on another NFL season: the draft begins today although it looks as if NASN won't be carrying it over here...probably a good thing as after the first ten picks it gets a bit dull.
So who's going to be wearing Silver and Black next season: JaMarcus Russell or Calvin Johnson? I'll take either...both would be nice ;-)
JaMarcus Russell:
Calvin Johnson:
DEFINITELY more to come today, although it might be a little...unfocused, regardless of whatever happens.
Another one of the players I grew up with as a kid in the 1970s passes away: Alan Ball was up there with George Best, Bobby Moore and Billy Bremner. If you get a chance to see the 1966 World Cup Final, watch him - red number 7 jersey. That's what managers mean when they talk about 'having a good engine' and 'work rate'.Now on to the sublime and the ridiculous. This may be the only blog in the e-niverse that features JaMarcus Russell, Tony Blackburn...and The Wurzels apparently playing some sort of demented ska version of 'I Am A Cider Drinker'. You have been warned.
A simple, yet stark truth to today's proceedings:
A win at Millwall will mean City are up with a game left. Unbelievably, there's a scenario where City could lose and still get promoted...see below.
It's difficult to keep focused on the implications of this, so here are some cold hard facts. Millwall can't make the playoffs now, despite a reasonably impressive run of form which saw them lose only three of their last games and beating Swansea and Nottingham Forest at home. However, they fell on their arses last week after Huddersfield Town beat them 4-2.
I don't imagine for one minute that Millwall won't be up for this, it's their last home game of the season and they'll be relishing the spoiler role.
Here's the scenarios:
City and Forest win: City up
City win, Forest draw: City up
City win, Forest lose: City up
City draw, Forest draw: City up
City draw, Forest lose: City up
City lose, Forest lose: City up
City draw, Forest win: goes to last day
City lose, Forest win: goes to last day
City lose, Forest draw: goes to last day
Not bad. Six of nine possible outcomes are positive.
And I'll be at Ashton Gate today anyway: I'm going to watch Bristol play Gloucester at Rugby. I wasn't quick enough to organise Millwall tickets and I don't want to go to Whitchurch Sports Centre to watch the live beamback. I'll be watching a different game, but I'll be outside and I'll be able to buy beer.
And as the sun begins to set on another football season, the sun begins to rise on another NFL season: the draft begins today although it looks as if NASN won't be carrying it over here...probably a good thing as after the first ten picks it gets a bit dull.
So who's going to be wearing Silver and Black next season: JaMarcus Russell or Calvin Johnson? I'll take either...both would be nice ;-)
JaMarcus Russell:
Calvin Johnson:
DEFINITELY more to come today, although it might be a little...unfocused, regardless of whatever happens.
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Madame Zaza gets it right
There's only one automatic place left: congratulations to Scunthorpe United on winning promotion.
At one point this afternoon, it looked likely that City might only have to take two points from the last three games to join them, but Forest came back from two goals down to beat Brentford, so things haven't changed much as City beat Yeovil 2-0. The winner was a penalty from Bradley Orr that Steve Mildenhall almost saved; to say there was a lack of confidence in Orr's ability to convert it would be an understatement...the blokes in front of me turned away. It hit Mildenhall and crept underneath him.
Adriano Basso also made one of the most amazing saves I've ever seen this afternoon. More later. It was so good, time seemed to be suspended as he floated in the air after the catch.
That good.
But I digress. We're four points ahead of Forest with nine points left to play for. To put it as plainly as possible, if City win at Carlisle and Forest lose at home to Bournemouth...well, what are the chances of that happening?
If the season ended today:
Scunthorpe: champions. I think that's a given now. It doesn't matter.
City: automatic promotion.
Play offs: Oldham v Forest, Yeovil v Blackpool. You want spoiler material: Carlisle are a point off the playoffs and Blackpool are on one of those great late season surges of form (four straight wins) that take teams from mid table into the division above.
Still, our destiny is still in our hands, just the way I want it to be.
Oh yeah, we're two weeks into the baseball season in the USA: more of that to come later.
At one point this afternoon, it looked likely that City might only have to take two points from the last three games to join them, but Forest came back from two goals down to beat Brentford, so things haven't changed much as City beat Yeovil 2-0. The winner was a penalty from Bradley Orr that Steve Mildenhall almost saved; to say there was a lack of confidence in Orr's ability to convert it would be an understatement...the blokes in front of me turned away. It hit Mildenhall and crept underneath him.
Adriano Basso also made one of the most amazing saves I've ever seen this afternoon. More later. It was so good, time seemed to be suspended as he floated in the air after the catch.
That good.
But I digress. We're four points ahead of Forest with nine points left to play for. To put it as plainly as possible, if City win at Carlisle and Forest lose at home to Bournemouth...well, what are the chances of that happening?
If the season ended today:
Scunthorpe: champions. I think that's a given now. It doesn't matter.
City: automatic promotion.
Play offs: Oldham v Forest, Yeovil v Blackpool. You want spoiler material: Carlisle are a point off the playoffs and Blackpool are on one of those great late season surges of form (four straight wins) that take teams from mid table into the division above.
Still, our destiny is still in our hands, just the way I want it to be.
Oh yeah, we're two weeks into the baseball season in the USA: more of that to come later.
Not for the faint hearted
City drew. Millwall beat Forest. Scunthorpe lost.
Then on Easter Monday it all changed again: City lost.
Situation today: we simply CANNOT afford to lose any more games. We've got Yeovil this afternoon - if we lose and Forest beat already relegated Brentford we're still ahead of Forest by one point, but Yeovil would be three points behind us with three games left to play. Here's some objectivity for you (a very scarce commodity round here at the moment): having mentioned a couple of posts ago that Yeovil's away record against the top six is not that good, they've recently lost to Scunny and Oldham away and Blackpool at home. William Hill has a City win at 8/11, 12/5 the draw and 3/1 Yeovil win.
If Scunthorpe beat Huddersfield, they're up. Similar kind of odds for Scunny as City have.
Forest need to beat Brentford, but there are injury problems for both sides.
Madame Zaza predicts: congratulations to Scunthorpe United for reaching the top half of the league since 1964.
And I will curse the day that smoking and standing were outlawed at Ashton Gate. If there was ever a day for both, it's today. I will report back later.
...it's so close it's almost unbearable.
Then on Easter Monday it all changed again: City lost.
Situation today: we simply CANNOT afford to lose any more games. We've got Yeovil this afternoon - if we lose and Forest beat already relegated Brentford we're still ahead of Forest by one point, but Yeovil would be three points behind us with three games left to play. Here's some objectivity for you (a very scarce commodity round here at the moment): having mentioned a couple of posts ago that Yeovil's away record against the top six is not that good, they've recently lost to Scunny and Oldham away and Blackpool at home. William Hill has a City win at 8/11, 12/5 the draw and 3/1 Yeovil win.
If Scunthorpe beat Huddersfield, they're up. Similar kind of odds for Scunny as City have.
Forest need to beat Brentford, but there are injury problems for both sides.
Madame Zaza predicts: congratulations to Scunthorpe United for reaching the top half of the league since 1964.
And I will curse the day that smoking and standing were outlawed at Ashton Gate. If there was ever a day for both, it's today. I will report back later.
...it's so close it's almost unbearable.
Saturday, April 07, 2007
Here's the situation today...
We have six games left to play and are currently in second place, four points ahead of Nottingham Forest, who we drew with last week. There's a four point gap between Forest and Oldham, so there's an eight point gap between City and Oldham.
Scunthorpe are seven points clear at the top having beaten Yeovil yesterday.
Today we're playing Swansea, who are four points off the last play off place.
If the season finished today:
Scunthorpe - champions
City - automatic promotion
First round of the playoffs:
Blackpool v Forest
Yeovil v Oldham
(Winners to meet in the final at The New Wembley, which is now finished and open for business.)
The only games that matter today: City v Swansea and Millwall v Nottingham Forest.
Best case scenario: City win and Forest lose. Instant seven point gap with four games left.
Worst case scenario: City lose and Forest win. One point gap with four games left.
According to William Hill, City are favourites to win, but it's far less clear in SE London. The draw (12/5) looks good value, but I'm almost tempted to bet on Forest at 13/10.
There are 45 minutes to go before kick off and I am really nervous.
There'll be a big update, probably either on Sunday or Monday...
Scunthorpe are seven points clear at the top having beaten Yeovil yesterday.
Today we're playing Swansea, who are four points off the last play off place.
If the season finished today:
Scunthorpe - champions
City - automatic promotion
First round of the playoffs:
Blackpool v Forest
Yeovil v Oldham
(Winners to meet in the final at The New Wembley, which is now finished and open for business.)
The only games that matter today: City v Swansea and Millwall v Nottingham Forest.
Best case scenario: City win and Forest lose. Instant seven point gap with four games left.
Worst case scenario: City lose and Forest win. One point gap with four games left.
According to William Hill, City are favourites to win, but it's far less clear in SE London. The draw (12/5) looks good value, but I'm almost tempted to bet on Forest at 13/10.
There are 45 minutes to go before kick off and I am really nervous.
There'll be a big update, probably either on Sunday or Monday...
Saturday, March 03, 2007
Catch Up
I am not well, but I am feeling much better now because Manyoo beat Liverpoo 1-0 (with ten men and an injury time goal) and Kevin 'Heavens to' Betsy has LITERALLY just scored City's first goal against Northampton Town.
I've been to Brighton to see City win away, we're currently doing well in the league although we crashed out of the JPT to The Blue Team which is a shame as my sister in law was due to get married the day before the final in Cardiff, so we wouldn't have had to have gone very far.
Lots of player movement in the NFL - I can't remember what was happening on Friday, but it was the first wave of Free Agent nonsense. The only activity concerning the Raiders was that OT Langston Walker has signed by the Buffalo Bills and it looks very much as if Jeff Garcia will not being joining the Raiders...meaning that it looks increasingly likely that JaMarcus Russell will be the quarterback of the future, especially as Aaron Brooks was cut on February 22nd. There are also rumours on the interwebnet about Randy Moss going to the Packers, which would be something of a turn up considering what happened there a few years ago...but let's be honest here, after last season anything and anyone on the offense would be better. Given Coach Kiffin's USC connections, it's unlikely Brady Quinn is going to be a Raider (he might be the new David Carr though); Troy Smith certainly won't be. The draft is right at the end of April.
So far there haven't been a great deal of FA moves, but the 49ers have made some interesting signings on defense and I'm immediately wondering if I'll return to them in the months to comel the Patriots are restocking too, which should set the alarm bells off around the league.
Other coaching changes (other than the boy wonder that is):
Ken Whisenhunt (ex-OC with the Steelers) replaces Denny Green in Arizona
Bobby Petrino (ex-Louisville) replaces Jim Mora Jr in Atlanta
Wade Phillips replaces Bill Parcells in Dallas (this looks dodgy already)
Cam Cameron replaces Nick Saban in Miami, Saban being the latest Bear Bryant replacement at Alabama
Mike Tomlin replaces Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh
Norv Turner replaces Marty Schottenheimer in San Diego (snort, giggle...Norv Turner? Are you kidding me?)
My extremely early take on this: Arizona and Atlanta will benefit the most.
The college football season has been over for so long that spring practices have already started (Tennessee stated on 22nd Feb!), but there will be some intriguing issues going into 2007. Todd Boeckman will probably be tOSU's starting quarterback but at Notre Dame things are confusing, with four players in the frame including highly touted freshman Jimmy Clausen. Darren McFadden (Arkansas) is already being touted for the Heisman, but there have been some interesting times down there during the offseason; my long range punt would be Tim Tebow of Florida. He's going to be a Sunday afternoon Monster one day, it's a shame it won't be for at least another couple of years.
You want a super-deep sleeper? Here's your man: Alex Brink of Washington State.
50/28 TD/INT ratio plus 7095 career yards. Plays on a 6-6 team though.
Right, returning to football that's still going on, here's how the top six head to head in Division 3 table now looks:
Tranmere P9 W4 D3 L2 F10 A7 Pts 15
Oldham P9 W4 D2 L3 F10 A6 Pts 14
Scunthorpe P7 W3 D2 L2 F9 A6 Pts 11
Forest P8 W3 D2 L3 F4 A12 Pts 11
City P8 W3 D1 L4 F8 A7 Pts 10
Yeovil P7 W2 D0 L5 F3 A9 Pts 6
City's position first: only have two games left against the current top six, at home to Forest and Yeovil. As luck would have it, both those teams have to travel to Scunthorpe as well and neither of them have home games left against the other teams in the top six.
As you can see from the mini table, neither Forest nor Oldham have been a real powerhouse against the other sides this season - Yeovil also have to travel to Oldham.
So here's one scenario: Scunny have a ten point lead with ten or so games left is actually favourable. If they can beat Forest and Yeovil they will be doing us a massive favour: if we can beat Forest and Yeovil...
Just to make it even more confusing, here's a table with results against the bottom six teams factored in:
Scunthorpe P18 W10 D5 L3 F23 A11 Pts 35
Tranmere P19 W8 D6 L5 F22 A17 Pts 30
Oldham P17 W9 D2 L6 F26 A17 Pts 29
Forest P15 W7 D4 L4 F17 A 19 Pts 25
Yeovil P15 W6 D3 L6 F14 A14 Pts 21
City P16 W5 D5 L6 F19 A17 Pts 20
So why on earth are we third in the table now?
Here is a revised fixture list, taking into account top six v. themselves and top six v. bottom six as it stands right now.
10th March: City v Brentford, Cheltenham v Yeovil, Scunthorpe v Nottingham Forest
Tuesday 13th March: City v Bradford
24th March: Nottingham Forest v Cheltenham, Yeovil v Chesterfield
Sunday 25th March: Brentford v Oldham
31st March: City v Forest, Oldham v Yeovil, Scunthorpe v Bradford
Friday 6th April: Scunthorpe v Yeovil (is this on Sky?)
Monday 9th April: Bradford v Oldham, Nottingham Forest v Rotherham
14th April: City v Yeovil, Brentford v Nottingham Forest, Oldham v Cheltenham
21st April: Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth, Yeovil v Rotherham
5th May: City v Rotherham, Oldham v Chesterfield, Tranmere v Brentford
So right off the bat, there are four weekends with three matches that are going to be crucial. Next weekend, the weekend my sister in law gets married, the weekend after Easter and the last game of the season.
Incredibly, I will be away from home on three of those weekends, including the last game of the season, when I will be in Cardiff to watch Superleague.
How I think it's going to pan out
We need to take maximum points from our four remaining games against the teams in the bottom six: three of them come in the next week and a half and the last one - against Rotherham on the last day of the season - might be absolutely crucial.
THIS IS AN ADVANTAGE THAT WE CANNOT AFFORD TO SQUANDER.
Best case scenario:
Winning the division is not out of the question, but it would take a collapse by Scunthorpe to do it*. Automatic promotion is still attainable, but every game is now a must win: there are still 36 points to play for and if we can pick up more than 20 then we can do it. Our destiny is in our own hands and we must make sure it stays that way; promotion before the last game of the season must be the aim.
Worst case scenario:
Out of the playoffs on the last day.
Wildcard Team and Biggest Threat:
Brentford and Oldham.
If the season ended today:
Playoffs v Tranmere, the winner to play the winner of Yeovil v Oldham in Cardiff.
* Madame Zaza moment: if Scunthorpe have to sell Billy Sharp in the summer or at any point next season, they'll go straight back down. Of course, they may have to deal with the Bob Taylor scenario, which is what finished us off in 1990.
I've been to Brighton to see City win away, we're currently doing well in the league although we crashed out of the JPT to The Blue Team which is a shame as my sister in law was due to get married the day before the final in Cardiff, so we wouldn't have had to have gone very far.
Lots of player movement in the NFL - I can't remember what was happening on Friday, but it was the first wave of Free Agent nonsense. The only activity concerning the Raiders was that OT Langston Walker has signed by the Buffalo Bills and it looks very much as if Jeff Garcia will not being joining the Raiders...meaning that it looks increasingly likely that JaMarcus Russell will be the quarterback of the future, especially as Aaron Brooks was cut on February 22nd. There are also rumours on the interwebnet about Randy Moss going to the Packers, which would be something of a turn up considering what happened there a few years ago...but let's be honest here, after last season anything and anyone on the offense would be better. Given Coach Kiffin's USC connections, it's unlikely Brady Quinn is going to be a Raider (he might be the new David Carr though); Troy Smith certainly won't be. The draft is right at the end of April.
So far there haven't been a great deal of FA moves, but the 49ers have made some interesting signings on defense and I'm immediately wondering if I'll return to them in the months to comel the Patriots are restocking too, which should set the alarm bells off around the league.
Other coaching changes (other than the boy wonder that is):
Ken Whisenhunt (ex-OC with the Steelers) replaces Denny Green in Arizona
Bobby Petrino (ex-Louisville) replaces Jim Mora Jr in Atlanta
Wade Phillips replaces Bill Parcells in Dallas (this looks dodgy already)
Cam Cameron replaces Nick Saban in Miami, Saban being the latest Bear Bryant replacement at Alabama
Mike Tomlin replaces Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh
Norv Turner replaces Marty Schottenheimer in San Diego (snort, giggle...Norv Turner? Are you kidding me?)
My extremely early take on this: Arizona and Atlanta will benefit the most.
The college football season has been over for so long that spring practices have already started (Tennessee stated on 22nd Feb!), but there will be some intriguing issues going into 2007. Todd Boeckman will probably be tOSU's starting quarterback but at Notre Dame things are confusing, with four players in the frame including highly touted freshman Jimmy Clausen. Darren McFadden (Arkansas) is already being touted for the Heisman, but there have been some interesting times down there during the offseason; my long range punt would be Tim Tebow of Florida. He's going to be a Sunday afternoon Monster one day, it's a shame it won't be for at least another couple of years.
You want a super-deep sleeper? Here's your man: Alex Brink of Washington State.
50/28 TD/INT ratio plus 7095 career yards. Plays on a 6-6 team though.Right, returning to football that's still going on, here's how the top six head to head in Division 3 table now looks:
Tranmere P9 W4 D3 L2 F10 A7 Pts 15
Oldham P9 W4 D2 L3 F10 A6 Pts 14
Scunthorpe P7 W3 D2 L2 F9 A6 Pts 11
Forest P8 W3 D2 L3 F4 A12 Pts 11
City P8 W3 D1 L4 F8 A7 Pts 10
Yeovil P7 W2 D0 L5 F3 A9 Pts 6
City's position first: only have two games left against the current top six, at home to Forest and Yeovil. As luck would have it, both those teams have to travel to Scunthorpe as well and neither of them have home games left against the other teams in the top six.
As you can see from the mini table, neither Forest nor Oldham have been a real powerhouse against the other sides this season - Yeovil also have to travel to Oldham.
So here's one scenario: Scunny have a ten point lead with ten or so games left is actually favourable. If they can beat Forest and Yeovil they will be doing us a massive favour: if we can beat Forest and Yeovil...
Just to make it even more confusing, here's a table with results against the bottom six teams factored in:
Scunthorpe P18 W10 D5 L3 F23 A11 Pts 35
Tranmere P19 W8 D6 L5 F22 A17 Pts 30
Oldham P17 W9 D2 L6 F26 A17 Pts 29
Forest P15 W7 D4 L4 F17 A 19 Pts 25
Yeovil P15 W6 D3 L6 F14 A14 Pts 21
City P16 W5 D5 L6 F19 A17 Pts 20
So why on earth are we third in the table now?
Here is a revised fixture list, taking into account top six v. themselves and top six v. bottom six as it stands right now.
10th March: City v Brentford, Cheltenham v Yeovil, Scunthorpe v Nottingham Forest
Tuesday 13th March: City v Bradford
24th March: Nottingham Forest v Cheltenham, Yeovil v Chesterfield
Sunday 25th March: Brentford v Oldham
31st March: City v Forest, Oldham v Yeovil, Scunthorpe v Bradford
Friday 6th April: Scunthorpe v Yeovil (is this on Sky?)
Monday 9th April: Bradford v Oldham, Nottingham Forest v Rotherham
14th April: City v Yeovil, Brentford v Nottingham Forest, Oldham v Cheltenham
21st April: Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth, Yeovil v Rotherham
5th May: City v Rotherham, Oldham v Chesterfield, Tranmere v Brentford
So right off the bat, there are four weekends with three matches that are going to be crucial. Next weekend, the weekend my sister in law gets married, the weekend after Easter and the last game of the season.
Incredibly, I will be away from home on three of those weekends, including the last game of the season, when I will be in Cardiff to watch Superleague.
How I think it's going to pan out
We need to take maximum points from our four remaining games against the teams in the bottom six: three of them come in the next week and a half and the last one - against Rotherham on the last day of the season - might be absolutely crucial.
THIS IS AN ADVANTAGE THAT WE CANNOT AFFORD TO SQUANDER.
Best case scenario:
Winning the division is not out of the question, but it would take a collapse by Scunthorpe to do it*. Automatic promotion is still attainable, but every game is now a must win: there are still 36 points to play for and if we can pick up more than 20 then we can do it. Our destiny is in our own hands and we must make sure it stays that way; promotion before the last game of the season must be the aim.
Worst case scenario:
Out of the playoffs on the last day.
Wildcard Team and Biggest Threat:
Brentford and Oldham.
If the season ended today:
Playoffs v Tranmere, the winner to play the winner of Yeovil v Oldham in Cardiff.
* Madame Zaza moment: if Scunthorpe have to sell Billy Sharp in the summer or at any point next season, they'll go straight back down. Of course, they may have to deal with the Bob Taylor scenario, which is what finished us off in 1990.
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