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NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 9

Someone must win:

Green Bay (3-4) at Buffalo (2-5)

Weather forecast for Buffalo on Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Forecast for Green Bay on Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.

Yep, winter is here.

Here's a weird one. The Packers are only behind the Colts and the Saints in sack per attempt percentage, which is a stat I'll be messing about with this week. Bud Goode Sports came up with a classic prediction: the Packers by -0, making this one officially too close to call. The only way that BGS seperates them is by the use of Killer Stat 2 (points per pass) which gives Green Bay a miniscule advantage.

Middle Diddle

Atlanta (5-2) at Detroit (1-6)

There's a stat in the Oakland preview below that indicates an intriguing offensive future for the Raiders but which should also make interesting reading for Ron Mexico. Is he supposed to be a hand off machine, or could Matt Schaub or DJ Shockley do that just as well? Ron currently leads NFL QBs in rushing, but is that what he's supposed to do? Is Jim Mora a genius because he's got a winning team running a 60/40 run-pass ratio?

None of these questions will be answered when the Falcons obliterate the Lions this weekend: I predict that the Detroit gameplan will be to get behind early, then pass a lot.

Scott Mitchell: although Bobby Layne is the legend, Mitchell is still the best Detroit QB in the last 40 years.

Cowboys (4-3) at Indians...sorry, Redskins...errr...Native Americans (2-5)

Think what you like about Bill Parcells, but his Dallas team is the nearest to a 50-50 run/pass ratio this season so far. The Cowboys won in Texas in Week 2 and have a reasonable away record but the Redskins have only won one game at home this season and may be without Santana Moss on Sunday. Dallas.

Tennessee (2-5) at Jacksonville (4-3)

DCF. Jacksonville on memorabilia and better uniforms.

Minnesota (4-3) at San Francisco (2-5)

Ssssshhhh...the Niners offense might be stirring again. They may not actually be as bad as everyone thinks they are, but they are definitely moving in the right direction. The defense is every bit as bad as everyone thinks it is and the Vikings will want to put the Monday night defeat by New England behind them.

Oakland (2-5) at Seattle (4-3)

Rubbish Oakland stat: 35 sacks given up this season in 177 attempts. That's a 19% ratio. The league average is 7%. It doesn't matter who's playing QB, it doesn't matter if you've got Randy Moss, it's all about pass protection; the Raiders have none. Presumably this is why the vertical stretch concept has been abandoned for the running game for the time being - only the Falcons have passed the ball less this season and begs the question: are the Raiders slowly becoming a run first team? It's probably too difficult to tell, but here's another stat worth noting: the Raiders have run the fewest offensive plays in the league this season.

Seattle probably won't have Sean Alexander again this weekend, but that probably won't matter. The Seahawks have averaged 25 points per home game this season; the Raiders have have averaged nine on the road and 20 of their 29 away points came in the loss to San Francisco. Dilemma: do I record this on Tuesday morning or not?

Houston (2-5) at NY Giants (5-2)

Giants.

New Orleans (5-2) at Tampa Bay (2-5)

Not the best football book ever.

88 points scored so far is an offensive triumph. Two of the three teams currently passing over 60% of the time are based in Florida. Tampa is one of them. Miami is the other. Current combined record: 3-11.

The Saints have already beaten the Buccs this season, but it was a close game that was only decided by Reggie Bush's 65 yard punt return for a TD with five minutes left. Tampa's two wins have been in their last two home games (against teams that had winning records) and so although this might be a close one, I'd still pick the Saints because Drew Brees is my fantasy QB and because angels smile every time Chucky loses a game.

Cleveland (2-5) at San Diego (5-2)

Shaun Merriman leads the league in sacks (one whole one in front of Oakland sackmeister Derrick Burgess), but he won't be getting any this weekend. It probably won't matter; San Diego will probably run all over Cleveland anyway. The Browns are currently averaging 3.3 yards per carry, second lowest after Arizona; Charlie Frye currently has a better average than Reuben Droughns does - he has more TDs too. MSK's Suicide Pick and also Stuffing Of The Week; here's a nice sounding recipe for a sausage and nut version.

Denver (5-2) at Pittsburgh (2-5)

Is this really the Pittsburgh comeback game? They've lost four of their last five and are currently 1-2 vs AFC West teams, whereas Denver will be looking to get some momentum back after narrowly losing to the Colts last week. A crucial game for both teams.

Miami (1-6) at Chicago (7-0)

In 1985, the Dolphins were the team that provided the Bears with their only defeat. I don't expect this to be the game that Da Bears lose this season; there's a far greater chance that they might suffer their first defeat sometime during the next three weeks when they face the Giants, Jets and Patriots on the road. Brutal.

Someone must lose:

Kansas (4-3) at St Louis (4-3)

At the Edward Jones dome KC is 1-0-0 and the Rams are 2-3-0, but the Chiefs have lost their last five games on turf. I was hoping that the NFL would publish some head to head stats on how the Chiefs perform on the road under a dome after a road win against a team that used to be a divisional rival, but that's unlikely. Kansas to pinch it.

Cincinnati (4-3) at Baltimore (5-2)

Dunno. I'll have a think. The Ravens on alphabetical order.

Peyton Manning (7-0) at Tom Brady (6-1)

Undeniably the MSK Game of The Week.

Following on from the Raiders pathetic sack per attempt percentage (19%), here's how it should be done: the same stat for the Colts is 2.9%, for the Patriots it's 5.2%. Gametime weather at Foxoboro: just below freezing.

A lot will depend on how well the Colts defense stops the Patriot running game. DC Ron Meeks presides over a unit that is currently dead last in the entire league, yielding an average of 167.9 yards a game. New England is eighth in rushing yards per game with an average of 124.9 ypg and Bill Belichick is splitting time between Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon.

One of the best football books ever, even if it's about the 'king Patriots.

If Indianapolis can't stop these two and they have trouble with Tom Brady possibly picking on Antoine Bethea, Peyton Manning will probably have to play the game of his life, which will mean avoiding Jarvis Green. It'll be interesting to see what Green writes on his website, which you can find here.

So it basically comes down to this...who is funnier, Manning...