'Be the hero, Steve...'

Were the words I said to myself as Steve Brooker entered the fray on Saturday afternoon. 72 minutes gone, 1-1. As predicted, Dele Adebola scored the first, but Norwich equalised through Darren Huckerby and to be honest I was sitting in the Atyeo thinking we needed a bloody miracle.

Three minutes of injury time on the board, into the third minute, free kick to City, Brooker scores his first goal for City since the 3-3 draw with Coventry City in the cup in January 2007.

City 2, Norwich 1. Top of the Championship again.

Coventry City...Coventry City...Coventry City...

In a curious parallel, Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals (and the Arlen Spectres) hit a walk off home run to win the game against Atlanta on Sunday night, the first win at the new stadium in DC and the first Spectre home run of the season. Different games, thousands of miles apart, last minute dramatic finishes...happy, happy, happy. Check out Zimmerman in the Nationals road uniform...looks familiar, doesn't it?

Jerry Dammers Wouldn't Advertise Fish Fingers

And so to Norwich.

I did all the prep work yesterday, but it's currently upstairs, so please excuse me while I go and get it. Meanwhile, have some old time music that doesn't currently promote fish fingers.



The Specials. From Coventry. Fate.


Right...confusingly, Sky is reporting that City are attempting to beat Norwich for the third straight time which apparently means the third time in the league since May 1999. Errr...we've only played them once in the league since then, when we won at Carrow Road earlier in the season. Not much of a stat.

Norwich have won two of their last six aways but the last win was against the Huns on 9th February. Since then they've lost three (they drew at Watford but 'Watford' and 'draw' feature in a lot in sentences in this blog) and have scored a massive one goal in their last four, a late equaliser by former Gashead Jamie Cureton. He's not the goalscoring threat: Ched Evans (on loan from Manchester City and it's short for 'Chedwyn'...UPDATE: he's riding the pine this afternoon) has scored three of their last four away goals. Another stat for you: half of those four goals came in the last ten minutes.

We need an early goal or at least one in the first half, which is where three of the seven goals we've scored in the last six homes have come. Specifically, Dele Adebola needs an early one, followed by a goal by Defender To Be Named Later: defensively, in the last two games we've conceded just before half time and this needs to STOP RIGHT NOW.

Wild guess time: a similar game to the Sheffield Wednesday one. We get a two goal lead, then either Cureton or Evans scores late and it's squeeky bum time with three quarters of an hour of injury time. As it's a Saturday afternoon game and I'll be sitting in my traditional spot, this is a case of normal service.

Mind you, it's blowing a gale and pissing down outside. 0-0.

Keep repeating the mantra...Coventry...Coventry...Coventry....

And They're Off...

The A's split the Opening Series in Japan with the Sox, the Spectres are currently joint third.

City remain second despite losing to the Huns on Saturday. We've got Nardge Stee on Saturday, who last won down here in April 1980 during the last days of Division 1...to put it another way, when this was number one in the hit parade....



Which was replaced with this almost immediately...



Ah, those were the days.

Not much change in the top six apart from Plymouth have made their way back into it. There's a four point gap between them and WBA, but then four clubs immediately behind Gargoyle who could still make the playoffs.

T6H2H as follows:

WBA P9 W5 D2 L2 F19 A10 Pts 17
City P9 W3 D4 L2 F9 A10 Pts 13
Stoke P9 W2 D6 L2 F11 A9 Pts 12
Plymouth P10 W3 D3 L4 F13 A16 Pts 12
Hull P9 W2 D3 L4 F9 A12 Pts 9
Watford P8 W1 D4 L3 F3 A7 Pts 7

Remaining games:

Hull v Watford (this Saturday)
WBA v Watford (12th April)
Stoke v Bristol City (19th April)

Hull v Watford looks like a draw to me, although the Tigers haven't beaten Watford at home since 1978. Hull haven't beaten any of the top six at home this season, Watford haven't beaten any of the top six away in 2007/2008. Having said that, although Hull's recent home form has been pretty impressive, they've only played one team in the top half of the table in the last six games (Burnley). Watford have drawn five of their last six aways including games against City and Plymouth.

The top four have got a mixed bag this weekend. I'll post an in depth profile before our game on Friday or Saturday and let's assume that WBA will beat Colchester at The Hawthorns, but both Plymouth and Stoke are away, to Coventry and Sheffield Wednesday respectively.

Coventry are fearsome at home right now. Apart from being smashed 5-0 by WBA in the Cup in February the last time they lost - and conceded a goal at Highfield Road in the league - was in mid January. Plymouth's recent away record isn't too shabby but they may be up against it this time - this tends to be a series where the home team wins.

Sheffield Wednesday v Stoke has all the makings of an epic. Stoke have a one point lead over City but the Wendies are in the last relegation spot. They've lost two of their last six homes (WBA and Ipswich) whereas the Stokies have lost three of their last six aways. Wednesday haven't beaten Stoke at home this century, but two of the last three games have been draws.

While I was looking all this up, something struck me. If City go up, it may be because of some help from Coventry City. Why? Stay tuned.

This Year's Model

Barry Bonds has exactly the same birthday as me and my team was known as the Bristol Bondsmen for several years until he was shown the door by the San Francisco Giants at the end of last season...I won't go into too many details, but at one point I was going to call the team the Balco Bondsmen.

So it only seems fitting that my fantasy baseball team is renamed and after...well, minutes of deliberation...I give you The Arlen Spectres.

That's the infield done.

But lo - it's actually a triple entendre! A 6-4-3 if you will. So if Boomhauer, Hank, Dale and Bill are the players, here's the manager...

OK, a quick bit of background: Senator Arlen Spector (R, Pennsylvania) has been the most vocal critic of the Spygate Scandal that ran during the American football season. I'm not going to elaborate on Spygate because I already made my feelings known (scroll down to 'Beating Charstards') and the football gods got their revenge by letting the Giants win the Superbowl.

Of course, every sporting franchise needs some kind of evil GM (an Al Davros/Ge*rge Stoneburner type) and here's the third layer of...irony...nah...errr...'entendre'...oh I don't know...but here he is, the head of SPECTOR, Ernst Stavro Blofeld.

So there we go...my team has cartoon players, a republican senator as manager and a Bond supervillain as GM. I'm very happy with that as I try not to take this stuff seriously but this year I am a defending champion rather than trying not to finish last. Let's take a look at the pitchers who are going to help me defend my title - outfielders to follow.

Pitchers

I didn't plan my draft with as much precision as I did last season, so if anything I'm a little short on pitchers. Three starters, three closers so at least it's symmetrical.

2007 Line:

Collectively they worked under 1400 innings (good) for 61 wins, 115 saves, 800 strikeouts with a combined ERA of 3.45 and a combined WHIP of 1.21. I must admit, that looks a little short on wins right now. As for projected numbers, Baseball Prospectus sees a drop of across the board so I think I probably need another starter at some point. When we get to outfielders you'll be able to see that I've plenty of trade bait.

Starters:

CC Sabathia (Indians) - back for another year of 200+ innings!

Cole Hamels (Phillies)

Danny Haren (Diamondbacks)

Closers:

Francisco Rodriguez (Angels) - did OK with the Angels I had last year (Guerrero, Escobar, Lackey, Kendrick and Cabrera), probably a good idea there isn't a post season in my league.

Mariano Rivera (Yankees, below) - cartoon character players, republican manager, evil GM and a Yankees closer!

Joe Borowski (Indians) - here's the risky one. Loads of saves, but dreadful ERA - he was actually on my Anti Watch list last season. Looking forward to seeing some Tribe games where CC starts and Joe finishes.

More later, thank you for reading...

Ups & Downs

A mixed bag being a red last weekend. City lost and are now second on goal difference to Stoke, who drew 0-0 at Watford. Having spent a lot of time hanging about in the rain I managed to pick up a stinking cold which I'm currently suffering from. I managed to pick up a ticket for the trip to Cardiff next weekend.

I'm culturally confused at the best of times, but my negative feelings about a football defeat were offset by a Grand Slam win for Wales. So it's ironic that travelling to the town where my grandmother and father were born to see the team that my grandfather followed and where my sister and brother in law live is such a pain in the backside...purely because I support Bristol City.

Of course, there's a lot more to it than that but it's bloody silly nonetheless. I'm sure I can't be the only City fan who is Anglo-Welsh.

Summer's coming. I drafted my baseball team on Sunday: more details coming, probably tomorrow.

The Championship Enters The Twilight Zone

Right, to business.

Hull are now a top six club and the T6H2H Table now looks like this:

1. WBA P8 W4 D2 L2 F17 A11 Pts 14
2. Charlton P9 W3 D4 L2 F12 A12 Pts 13
3. City P9 W3 D4 L2 F8 A9 Pts 13
4. Stoke P8 W2 D4 L2 F8 A7 Pts 10
5. Hull P9 W1 D4 L4 F8 A12 Pts 7
6. Watford P7 W1 D4 L4 F5 A7 Pts 7

Three of the remaining five fixtures between the current top six take place before the end of March, starting tomorrow when Stoke go to Watford. Stoke have won two of their last six aways but have been outscored by 6-9, Watford haven't lost any of their last six homes and have only conceded two goals whilst scoring eight.

The best result for City would be a Watford win or a draw. The 'Hornets' are the bookies favourites but if it was available I'd have a bet on how many birds in flight get hit by the ball. Watford were here on Tuesday and what a bunch of hoofers they were. Stoke aren't exactly well known as masters of the short passing game either.

We've got Plymouth. They've lost three of their last six aways, we're unbeaten at home since November and they've not won here since September 1931.

Make of that what you will.

Congratulations to WBA on belting the Gas 5-1 at The Mem to reach the semi finals of the FA Cup. Ordinarily that would be an achievement, but it's tempered slightly by the fact that there are two other Championship teams in the semi finals...Barnsley and Cardiff. One of them will reach the final - and there's a very real prospect that it could be an all Championship final if WBA beat Portsmouth.

Outstanding Baggies v Pompey fact: the last time West Brom won the cup (in 1968), they beat Portsmouth 2-1 in the fifth round. The season before was the last time Cardiff played Barnsley in the cup, Cardiff won the third round tie after a replay.

So here's my take: we beat Plymouth, Watford beat Stoke and our lead increases.

Then we go to Cardiff. More after the game tomorrow.

The Giddy Heights Part II

Two games, four points. Still top.

A win at home against Hull followed by a 1-1 draw with Charlton last night, which has amended the T6H2H stats as follows:

1. WBA P8 W5 D2 L1 F19 A9 Pts 17
2. Stoke P8 W3 D3 L3 F11 A9 Pts 12
3. Charlton P7 W2 D3 L2 F10 A12 Pts 9
4. City P7 W2 D3 L2 F7 A9 Pts 9
5. Plymouth P7 W2 D2 L3 F9 A12 Pts 8
6. Watford P6 W0 D3 L3 F4 A9 Pts 3

The only other game that had any impact this table was WBA beating Plymouth 3-0 on Saturday. I'm not going to spend any time on T6vB3 as the two games in that subdivision went as planned with wins for WBA and Plymouth against Sheffield Wednesday and Colchester respectively.

Wednesday looked...well, errr...Donald Ducked.

All this means is that City move up one place in my hypothetical table, but more significantly I think last night's point in South East London may mean that in the long run Charlton may well end up spending next season in the Championship. They've bought in former City striker Leroy Lita in on loan for the rest of the month, the sort of move that indicates that Alan Pardew realises that the game may almost be up this season. They've only got one more home game against a top six team (WBA on 21st March), the last opportunity for them to actually beat a top six club.

The bookies still seem to hate us though. City's odds seem to be shortening, but we're still outsiders in the automatic promotion slots. I'm probably not going to bother looking at them again until after the Leicester game on Saturday. We've struggled there in the league - haven't won there since 25th March 1915...about a week after the attack on the Dardanelles began.

Talking of which...the favourites for this weekend in the Six Nations are Ireland, England and France. Hmmm. I'd agree with two of those.

The Giddy Heights

Exactly a year ago I was worried about getting out of League 1. Having suffered through several seasons of failure via automatic promotion and the play offs it was nerve wracking to be doing so well. Everything turned out well in the end.


In August - like a lot of other City fans - I expected this season to be about consolidation. I thought mid table would be fine, perhaps with a cup run.


If we beat Hull today we go top of the Championship. We're currently second behind Stoke City and although I don't have a programme near me I think I'm correct in saying that we've not been out of the top five all season.


I did a head to head analysis this time last year and here's the same thing for this season. This is based on the top six playing each other:


1. WBA P7 W4 D2 L1 F16 A9 Pts 14
2. Stoke City P8 W3 D3 L2 F11 A9 Pts 12
3. Plymouth Argyle P6 W2 D2 L2 F9 A9 Pts 8
4. Charlton Athletic P7 W2 D2 L3 F9 A11 Pts 8
5. City P6 W2 D2 L2 F6 A8 Pts 8
6. Watford P6 W0 D3 L3 F4 A9 Pts 3

Top Six v Bottom 3:

1. WBA 21pts
2. Stoke 21 pts
3. City 17pts
4. Watford 16pts
5. Charlton 14pts
6. Colchester 13pts (interesting!)
7. Plymouth 12pts
8. Scunthorpe 10pts
9. Sheffield Wednesday 7pts

Comparison between the two tables seems to indicate the following:

* Watford are punching above their weight at the moment
* Colchester may be too good to go down
* WBA should win promotion
* Plymouth are erratic

Remaining games as follows:


Today: WBA v Plymouth

4th March: Charlton v City, Plymouth v Colchester, Sheffield Wednesday v WBA

11th March: City v Watford, Scunthorpe v Plymouth

15th March: City v Plymouth, Watford v Stoke

21st March: Charlton v WBA

22nd March: Plymouth v Watford

29th March: Sheffield Wednesday v Stoke, WBA v Colchester

5th April: Plymouth v Charlton

12th April: WBA v Watford, Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth

19th April: Stoke v City

26th April: Colchester v Stoke, Watford v Scunthorpe


So basically the four games after today (including Leicester next Saturday) are absolutely huge. It's interesting to note that this is a remarkably similar situation to last season and the experience City got last year may be invaluable - in some respects we're actually doing better than we did against top six teams in League 1 during 2006/2007. We've lost fewer games and have conceded fewer goals although to be fair it's also worth pointing out that we've scored fewer.


Some more interesting things about the top six head to head games...


WBA are undefeated at home, so are Stoke. Two of WBA's last three games against the current top six are at home, Stoke have only one left (yeah, City)


Plymouth, Charlton and Watford haven't won at home. Watford only have one opportunity left while Plymouth and Charlton have two.


Stoke and Watford haven't won away. Stoke's last away game against the current top six is at Watford, the Hornets still have to travel to City and WBA.


City have the tightest home defence in these games (two goals conceded), Watford have the worst (seven). WBA have scored the most home goals (nine, including four against City and Charlton), Watford and City have only scored twice at home against other top six clubs,


Watford have the tightest away defence (two goals), Charlton have the worst away defence (seven goals). WBA have scored the most goals away from home (seven), Watford have only managed two.


Most common result: 1-1, four times

Home wins: seven (biggest: WBA 4 Bristol City 1) accounting for 35%
Draws: seven (again, 35%)
Away wins: six (biggest: Watford 0, WBA 3), 30% of the games so far


No team has won both games against any opponents (yet).

So what's going to happen?

I'd love to see City go up again. Three of the top six have been in the Premier League in the last four years and the pressure is on them to get back there, not us. Plymouth have never played in the top tier and Stoke haven't been up there since 1985, five years since we departed.

One thing I've not mentioned yet is the potential impact Bristol Rovers might have on all this. Without spending any time on the full story, WBA have to travel to the Mem for an FA Cup quarter final in a couple of weeks that I fully expect West Brom to win.

So what will the prospect of an FA Cup semi final at Wembley have on their league form? The games are supposed to take place on April 5th, the day they're supposed to be away at Blackpool.

But back to the first paragraph of this section. Here are the outcomes:

* Guaranteed Championship football next season (already achieved)

* Miss out on the play offs on the last day

* Playoffs, but lose in the first round

* Playoffs, but lose at Wembley

* Automatic promotion as play off winners

* Automatic promotion as runners up

* Automatic promotion to the Premier League as Football League Champions (and I can't believe I just wrote that)

I'd like the last one best. I have absolutely no idea yet what will happen, but the romantic version is this:

I went to see the New York Giants play the Miami Dolphins last October. I was wandering around the outside of New Wembley when I saw a Peter Carol coach in the car park - for those of you that don't know, that's the company that runs coaches for City. My immediate thought:

'It's early. It's not May yet.'

So the play off final v Stoke, eight years after they beat us in the Auto Windscreens at the old stadium.

This time...WE win.