OK, in no particular order:
Run/Pass Ratios
Pittsburgh hasn't changed much in their run/pass split. They were a marginal passing team in the regular season (52.3%); in the post season they're a marginal running team (53.8%). Basically, the Steelers run a balanced offense - even though that offense is not one of the best in the league.
Here's the interesting bit though. During the regular season, the Cardinals were what I'd call a strong passing team: the overall split was 64.95/35.05 in favour of the pass. This changed dramatically during the postseason. Arizona has bee a marginal run first team during the post season (52%) - that's a 17% swing.
Stomps, Dominations and Mutual Opponents
Coined by the Football Outsiders, the definition of a stomp: a win by more than 14 points against an opponent with an overall losing record. A 'domination' is the same thing against an opponent with a winning record.
The Cardinals are slightly ahead here with three stomps and two dominant wins. Two of the stomps came over the 2-14 St Louis Rams (the other was over the Buffalo Bills), the dominations were over Miami in Week 2 and Carolina on the road in the playoffs. Pittsburgh has one less domination, stomping Cincinnati twice and dominating the Patriots on the road.
Not much between them in that respect, but what may be more significant is that Pittsburgh is 3-2 versus mutual opponents with wins over Washington, Dallas and New England. Arizona is 2-4 with wins over Dallas and Philadelphia. Both teams lost to the New York Giants and both beat the Cowboys, which probably says more about the Cowboys than anything else.
The Better QB Doesn't Always Win
Well, the one with better regular season rating over the last decade anyway. 40% of the last ten games were won by the player with the better rating but that's been skewed recently with three of the last five (60%) Superbowls being won by the player with the better regular season passer rating. Intriguingly, both Warner and Roethlisberger are amongst the players with better passer ratings who won Superbowls (Warner over Steve McNair in 2000 and Roethlisberger over Matt Hasselbeck in 2006), when the Patriots beat Warner's Rams in 2001, Warner's rating was much better than Tom Brady's - as indeed Brady's was when Eli Manning caused a major upset last season. Warner has a rating that's 16.8 points better than Roethlisberger's going into tonight's game - similar to that when he lost to Brady in 2001, but also similar to when he beat McNair the season before.
So if defense wins championships (and the Pittsburgh defense performs as well as the billing), the Steelers win - although they are not facing an average offense, they may actually be facing the return of the Greatest Show On Turf . Conversely, if offense wins games, the Cardinals win.
The key: Ken Whisenhunt. Three seasons as Steelers offensive co-ordinator, two seasons as Cardinals head coach. If he can prepare his defense to take care of the Pittsburgh offense, then it's an Arizona win. He''ll have some help: I counted six assistants with the Cardinals who have some recent knowledge of the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is the favourite. See you tomorrow.
Showing posts with label Pro Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pro Football. Show all posts
Sunday, February 01, 2009
OMG New Post LOL
Good grief...I last posted in September.
Anyway, it's the Superbowl Edition.
Right, stats. I looked at the last four games that the Steelers and the Cardinals played and did some really basic number crunching. First thing to remember is that half of the Steelers last four games were during the regular season and they went 3-1. The Cardinals were 4-0 and their last three wins were in the play offs.
I once won a bet on first TD scorer when I decided Deion Branch would do that, so I thought I'd take a look at that first - but remember this is only over the last four games. For Pittsburgh, the stats like a Willie Parker rushing TD (30% of Pitt's scores overall, half of the Steelers rushing TDs), for the Cardinals it's actually even clearer. Larry Fitzgerald's numbers over the last four games are seven touchdowns (58% of Arizona's total TDs and a whopping 70% of the Cards receiving TDs).
Currently both Parker and Fitzgerald are about 6/1 for first score, but remember that the numbers in the paragraphs are how likely they are to score at some point during the game rather than whether they score first. The category where they're worth a punt is 'Anytime Touchdown Scorer' and at this point the odds drop to 8/11 - which is basically saying that it's highly likely that Parker and/or Fitzgerald will score at some point.
Looking at the first TD scorer for both teams over the last four games, there are some more clues. The first TDs for Arizona were all receptions and Fitzgerald had half of them (the others were snagged by Tim Hightower and Jerheme Urban), which points in the direction of a bet on Arizona's first scoring play being a pass.
There's some variance in Pittsburgh's stats. Two rushing scores for Willie Parker (no surprise there) but two receptions for scores by Santonio Holmes...who is about 8/1 for first score. Hmm. This fits my 'anything less than 14/1 in a big field isn't a bad bet' theory.
Right, on to my next pet theory number one: regular season v. post season QB ratings. Exactly two years ago I posted this: 'Here's a stat for y'all: over the last ten years, the average regular season rating for winning Superbowl QBs has been 91.8. Here are some players from 2006 that scored above that - Drew Brees, Damon Huard, Marc Bulger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb...and Peyton Manning.'
Since then, the average has dropped to 89.9 because last year's winner (Eli Manning) had the worst regular season rating (73.9) - worse than the much maligned Trent Dilfer had in 2000 (76.6). Here are this season's figures:
Kurt Warner first:
Regular season rating was 96.9,
'Last four games' rating was 114.5
Post season rating was 112.1.
Ben Roethlisberger:
Regular season rating 80.1
Last four games 85.2
Post season 90.7
Warner's regular season rating would take fourth place over the last ten years, behind Peyton Manning in 2006, Ben Roethlisberger in 2005...and Kurt Warner in 1999. In fact - despite the nine season difference - Warner is only playing at 1.4 points below his '99 level. Impressive.
Roethlisberger's rating beats Dilfer and Eli Manning; he's 18.5 points below his 2005 level. I know it's not really an indicator of how the game is going to go, but this is an alert for Steelers fans - remember the average passer rating of the victorious QB during the regular season is 89.9 and Big Ben is ten points below that. I have time (and I probably will) I'll do some numbers for the losing QB. I'm also going to post some more stuff before the game but I need to do some other stuff first.
But here's a stupid one. 90% of the winning QBs over the last decade have had two syllable last names. The only one that hasn't is Ben Roethlisberger. Make of that what you will!
Anyway, it's the Superbowl Edition.
Right, stats. I looked at the last four games that the Steelers and the Cardinals played and did some really basic number crunching. First thing to remember is that half of the Steelers last four games were during the regular season and they went 3-1. The Cardinals were 4-0 and their last three wins were in the play offs.
I once won a bet on first TD scorer when I decided Deion Branch would do that, so I thought I'd take a look at that first - but remember this is only over the last four games. For Pittsburgh, the stats like a Willie Parker rushing TD (30% of Pitt's scores overall, half of the Steelers rushing TDs), for the Cardinals it's actually even clearer. Larry Fitzgerald's numbers over the last four games are seven touchdowns (58% of Arizona's total TDs and a whopping 70% of the Cards receiving TDs).
Currently both Parker and Fitzgerald are about 6/1 for first score, but remember that the numbers in the paragraphs are how likely they are to score at some point during the game rather than whether they score first. The category where they're worth a punt is 'Anytime Touchdown Scorer' and at this point the odds drop to 8/11 - which is basically saying that it's highly likely that Parker and/or Fitzgerald will score at some point.
Looking at the first TD scorer for both teams over the last four games, there are some more clues. The first TDs for Arizona were all receptions and Fitzgerald had half of them (the others were snagged by Tim Hightower and Jerheme Urban), which points in the direction of a bet on Arizona's first scoring play being a pass.
There's some variance in Pittsburgh's stats. Two rushing scores for Willie Parker (no surprise there) but two receptions for scores by Santonio Holmes...who is about 8/1 for first score. Hmm. This fits my 'anything less than 14/1 in a big field isn't a bad bet' theory.
Right, on to my next pet theory number one: regular season v. post season QB ratings. Exactly two years ago I posted this: 'Here's a stat for y'all: over the last ten years, the average regular season rating for winning Superbowl QBs has been 91.8. Here are some players from 2006 that scored above that - Drew Brees, Damon Huard, Marc Bulger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb...and Peyton Manning.'
Since then, the average has dropped to 89.9 because last year's winner (Eli Manning) had the worst regular season rating (73.9) - worse than the much maligned Trent Dilfer had in 2000 (76.6). Here are this season's figures:
Kurt Warner first:
Regular season rating was 96.9,
'Last four games' rating was 114.5
Post season rating was 112.1.
Ben Roethlisberger:
Regular season rating 80.1
Last four games 85.2
Post season 90.7
Warner's regular season rating would take fourth place over the last ten years, behind Peyton Manning in 2006, Ben Roethlisberger in 2005...and Kurt Warner in 1999. In fact - despite the nine season difference - Warner is only playing at 1.4 points below his '99 level. Impressive.
Roethlisberger's rating beats Dilfer and Eli Manning; he's 18.5 points below his 2005 level. I know it's not really an indicator of how the game is going to go, but this is an alert for Steelers fans - remember the average passer rating of the victorious QB during the regular season is 89.9 and Big Ben is ten points below that. I have time (and I probably will) I'll do some numbers for the losing QB. I'm also going to post some more stuff before the game but I need to do some other stuff first.
But here's a stupid one. 90% of the winning QBs over the last decade have had two syllable last names. The only one that hasn't is Ben Roethlisberger. Make of that what you will!
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Get On With It
It's the middle of September and I've not posted for two months, despite all my favourite games starting. OK, I went on holiday for a couple of weeks but this is pathetic.
So let's jump in straight away with some headlines.
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Angels for winning the American League West. I've made a stunning 16p profit on that for a £2 bet on B*tfair. Well done me.
Not doing so well is my pick for the National League West, the Arizona Diamondbacks who are now 4.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, I had bets on the two Chicago clubs, who are both leading their respective divisions although the Cubs eight game lead over the Brewers is a little more comfortable than the slim lead the White Sox have over the Twins.
All the football seasons are now underway and I shall be nipping down to Ashton Gate in about an hour's time for the game against Birmingham City. We're fifth, they're second, we've not lost at home and they've not won away...so it's a big game. Don't want to make any predictions, so I won't. Well, maybe a little one. It won't finish scoreless. I could lay that outcome on B*tfair, but knowing my luck...
College Football has been running since the end of August and thanks to B*tfair I can download my results in a handy spreadsheet format to see exactly how crap I am at predicting winners.
Starting with Week 1, Clemson to beat Alabama, Michigan to beat Utah, Pittsburgh to beat Bowling Green, Virginia Tech to beat...ah well, you get the picture and I'm sure you're tired of bad beat stories already but there's only one that can really be put down to overwhelming stupidity. In an incident comparable to backing Florida State to win the ACC last season, I pressed the wrong button and backed UTEP to beat Texas a couple of weeks ago. I'm trying to think of a suitable Association Football parallel but the only thing I can come up with is something like Chelsea playing Luton, Chelsea being given a two goal start and me still backing Luton to win. Hey, did anyone notice that Luton fails the blogger.com spellchecker?
Professional Football is approaching Week 3 and the main regular season story is that Tom Brady is out for the season*. This does not mean the Patriots have suddenly become fallible: far from it. There are ten 2-0 teams right now and they're amongst them.
The others are Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Denver, the Giants, Dallas, Green Bay, Carolina and Arizona. Including the Patriots, six of those teams made the playoffs last season - Buffalo, Denver, Carolina and Arizona didn't.
Thanks to the research by the good people at Football Outsiders (in particular the win expectancy charts published in Football Prospectus 2008), these ten teams currently have a 65.2% chance of making the playoffs, which can reach 79.5% if any of them win on Sunday. I'm pushed for time now, but as part of my selection process for my Sunday picks I'll be thinking out loud later in the week on the games the teams above are involved in.
But right now, I'm off to be a fan.
* As opposed to the main pre-season story, which was the Brett Favre saga.
So let's jump in straight away with some headlines.
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Angels for winning the American League West. I've made a stunning 16p profit on that for a £2 bet on B*tfair. Well done me.
Not doing so well is my pick for the National League West, the Arizona Diamondbacks who are now 4.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, I had bets on the two Chicago clubs, who are both leading their respective divisions although the Cubs eight game lead over the Brewers is a little more comfortable than the slim lead the White Sox have over the Twins.
All the football seasons are now underway and I shall be nipping down to Ashton Gate in about an hour's time for the game against Birmingham City. We're fifth, they're second, we've not lost at home and they've not won away...so it's a big game. Don't want to make any predictions, so I won't. Well, maybe a little one. It won't finish scoreless. I could lay that outcome on B*tfair, but knowing my luck...
College Football has been running since the end of August and thanks to B*tfair I can download my results in a handy spreadsheet format to see exactly how crap I am at predicting winners.
Starting with Week 1, Clemson to beat Alabama, Michigan to beat Utah, Pittsburgh to beat Bowling Green, Virginia Tech to beat...ah well, you get the picture and I'm sure you're tired of bad beat stories already but there's only one that can really be put down to overwhelming stupidity. In an incident comparable to backing Florida State to win the ACC last season, I pressed the wrong button and backed UTEP to beat Texas a couple of weeks ago. I'm trying to think of a suitable Association Football parallel but the only thing I can come up with is something like Chelsea playing Luton, Chelsea being given a two goal start and me still backing Luton to win. Hey, did anyone notice that Luton fails the blogger.com spellchecker?
Professional Football is approaching Week 3 and the main regular season story is that Tom Brady is out for the season*. This does not mean the Patriots have suddenly become fallible: far from it. There are ten 2-0 teams right now and they're amongst them.
The others are Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Denver, the Giants, Dallas, Green Bay, Carolina and Arizona. Including the Patriots, six of those teams made the playoffs last season - Buffalo, Denver, Carolina and Arizona didn't.
Thanks to the research by the good people at Football Outsiders (in particular the win expectancy charts published in Football Prospectus 2008), these ten teams currently have a 65.2% chance of making the playoffs, which can reach 79.5% if any of them win on Sunday. I'm pushed for time now, but as part of my selection process for my Sunday picks I'll be thinking out loud later in the week on the games the teams above are involved in.
But right now, I'm off to be a fan.
* As opposed to the main pre-season story, which was the Brett Favre saga.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Sweet
I lost £5 on this game, but for obvious reasons I don't care. Major update to follow.
Congrats to Cov, who knocked ManYoo out of the League Cup.
Congrats to Cov, who knocked ManYoo out of the League Cup.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Elitism
I'm not going to bother with the bottom two divisions in the Football League this season as I no longer have any interest in them. I hope I don't look back on this in a years' time and regret writing this. Early indications show that I might not, but 'football...bloody hell!' to quote Alex Ferguson...which brings me nicely on to...
Division 1 Game Of The Week: Everton v Man Utd
United basically won the championship last season with their come from behind win at Goodison Park. Although it's a bit early in the proceedings for this game to have that kind of impact it's still a must win for United and a must win for Everton if they're going to be taken seriously. ESPN Soccernet is reporting that Wayne Rooney will be in the ManYoo squad although whether he's there to play or to wind up Everton fans is another matter.
Division 2 Game Of The Week: Coventry City v Bristol City
And deservedly so. First v Third; we knocked Cov out of the FA Cup last season and they won't have liked that.
Division 1 One Sided Nonsense: Derby v Newcastle
Anti-game of the week because Derby are probably this year's Watford and Michael Owen is on a hot streak after scoring a brace against the Soviet Union on Wednesday. Not surprisingly, Newcastle are favourites.
Division 2 One Sided Nonsense: Leicester v QPR
But only because there are four points between them...which isn't saying much.
Division 2 Down Upside Is League Football The: Preston v Sheffield Wednesday
Both these clubs were either in or hovering around the playoffs last season and now they are the bottom two. You wouldn't expect this to last, but you never know. The Wendies looked poor when we beat them a couple of weeks ago.
So what, who cares:
Orient are top of Division 3. Some team called Nottingham Forest are currently 20th, which is worse than Bristol Rovers (who lost 3-0 at home to Leeds last night). Colin 'Fcuk Off' Calderwood is still Forest manager, but for how much longer?
If anyone cares (and I don't anymore) Darlington and Chesterfield are top of Division 4.
Futbol Americano
This season I'm just going to concentrate on the teams who I've backed in the NFL and the BCS and so far - after one game - things are decidedly mixed.
The Packers, Steelers, 49ers and Broncos all won in Week 1 and all have a reasonable chance of doing the same thing this weekend. If the Packers beat the Bears, the NFC Central becomes extremely interesting as there will be two teams with 2-0 records: if they don't the winner of Minnesota v Detroit will lead the division. Despite Chicago reaching the Superbowl last season, this division is not a strong one - hence the bet on Green Bay.
The Raiders travel to Denver. Josh McCown is allegedly out for three weeks so I imagine Dante Culpepper will start, backed up by Andrew Walter and with newly signed JaMarcus Russell as the third option. Great. The Broncos by about a zillion.
Tampa, Jacksonville and Philadelphia all lost. The Buccs have a tough game against the Saints, the loser will be 0-2 and it'll be time for all those statistical cliches to appear on Tuesday. The Jaguars should beat Atlanta and I expect Philly to beat a Redskins team that only won in overtime last weekend.
There are a couple of other games worth keeping an eye on. The Cheating Yankee Bastards have San Diego at home but arguably the most intriguing game of the week is the Jets travelling to Baltimore. The loser drops to 0-2 and although Jets QB Chad Pennington will not be playing, there are all sorts of wild rumours that Ravens LB Ray Lewis may be out for the season. I'm conflicted by this. I have the Ravens D in my fantasy league (I also drafted the Packers D for 'insurance purposes') and hopefully Baltimore will play well - but not well enough - to stop the Steelers from winning the division and therefore preventing me from collecting my bet.
The Cheating Yankee Bastards got their reward (sorry, punishment) yesterday and now - not surprisingly - their Superbowl wins are under scrutiny.
In a parallel sporting universe, another cheating case came to something of a conclusion this week. This will probably be the first and only time that Formula One makes it into this blog but the McLaren team and the CYBs were both caught doing something they shouldn't in order to increase their 'competitive edge'. This is what can happen when you don't play nice.
Arguably the simplest way to increase your competitive edge is to win a game. So it's rather bemusing to report that Michigan plays Notre Dame later in a game that one of them has to win. Both teams are 0-2 and although I saw the Michigan/Oregon game last week I've not seen ND yet...but both teams may be really awful.
LSU welcomes Middle Tennessee. This could get ugly early but although they lost the Blue Raiders put 42 points on Louisville last week. LSU will still win and there will be a lot of points.
FSU is in Boulder, CO for a game at...well, Colorado. Both teams are 1-1 and this is Colorado's home opener.
I'm going to a wedding party tonight so the next post may well be on Monday. I've got a day off and I'm going to fritter it away ;-)
Oh yeah, England Egg Chasers were shut out to the tune of 33 points by Sarth Effrika in the Ruggery World Cup on Friday. I can gloat at the moment, but I wouldn't be surprised if Wales get stuffed by a similar score by Oz today.
Division 1 Game Of The Week: Everton v Man Utd
United basically won the championship last season with their come from behind win at Goodison Park. Although it's a bit early in the proceedings for this game to have that kind of impact it's still a must win for United and a must win for Everton if they're going to be taken seriously. ESPN Soccernet is reporting that Wayne Rooney will be in the ManYoo squad although whether he's there to play or to wind up Everton fans is another matter.
Division 2 Game Of The Week: Coventry City v Bristol City
And deservedly so. First v Third; we knocked Cov out of the FA Cup last season and they won't have liked that.
Division 1 One Sided Nonsense: Derby v Newcastle
Anti-game of the week because Derby are probably this year's Watford and Michael Owen is on a hot streak after scoring a brace against the Soviet Union on Wednesday. Not surprisingly, Newcastle are favourites.
Division 2 One Sided Nonsense: Leicester v QPR
But only because there are four points between them...which isn't saying much.
Division 2 Down Upside Is League Football The: Preston v Sheffield Wednesday
Both these clubs were either in or hovering around the playoffs last season and now they are the bottom two. You wouldn't expect this to last, but you never know. The Wendies looked poor when we beat them a couple of weeks ago.
So what, who cares:
Orient are top of Division 3. Some team called Nottingham Forest are currently 20th, which is worse than Bristol Rovers (who lost 3-0 at home to Leeds last night). Colin 'Fcuk Off' Calderwood is still Forest manager, but for how much longer?
If anyone cares (and I don't anymore) Darlington and Chesterfield are top of Division 4.
Futbol Americano
This season I'm just going to concentrate on the teams who I've backed in the NFL and the BCS and so far - after one game - things are decidedly mixed.
The Packers, Steelers, 49ers and Broncos all won in Week 1 and all have a reasonable chance of doing the same thing this weekend. If the Packers beat the Bears, the NFC Central becomes extremely interesting as there will be two teams with 2-0 records: if they don't the winner of Minnesota v Detroit will lead the division. Despite Chicago reaching the Superbowl last season, this division is not a strong one - hence the bet on Green Bay.
The Raiders travel to Denver. Josh McCown is allegedly out for three weeks so I imagine Dante Culpepper will start, backed up by Andrew Walter and with newly signed JaMarcus Russell as the third option. Great. The Broncos by about a zillion.
Tampa, Jacksonville and Philadelphia all lost. The Buccs have a tough game against the Saints, the loser will be 0-2 and it'll be time for all those statistical cliches to appear on Tuesday. The Jaguars should beat Atlanta and I expect Philly to beat a Redskins team that only won in overtime last weekend.
There are a couple of other games worth keeping an eye on. The Cheating Yankee Bastards have San Diego at home but arguably the most intriguing game of the week is the Jets travelling to Baltimore. The loser drops to 0-2 and although Jets QB Chad Pennington will not be playing, there are all sorts of wild rumours that Ravens LB Ray Lewis may be out for the season. I'm conflicted by this. I have the Ravens D in my fantasy league (I also drafted the Packers D for 'insurance purposes') and hopefully Baltimore will play well - but not well enough - to stop the Steelers from winning the division and therefore preventing me from collecting my bet.
The Cheating Yankee Bastards got their reward (sorry, punishment) yesterday and now - not surprisingly - their Superbowl wins are under scrutiny.
In a parallel sporting universe, another cheating case came to something of a conclusion this week. This will probably be the first and only time that Formula One makes it into this blog but the McLaren team and the CYBs were both caught doing something they shouldn't in order to increase their 'competitive edge'. This is what can happen when you don't play nice.
Arguably the simplest way to increase your competitive edge is to win a game. So it's rather bemusing to report that Michigan plays Notre Dame later in a game that one of them has to win. Both teams are 0-2 and although I saw the Michigan/Oregon game last week I've not seen ND yet...but both teams may be really awful.
LSU welcomes Middle Tennessee. This could get ugly early but although they lost the Blue Raiders put 42 points on Louisville last week. LSU will still win and there will be a lot of points.
FSU is in Boulder, CO for a game at...well, Colorado. Both teams are 1-1 and this is Colorado's home opener.
I'm going to a wedding party tonight so the next post may well be on Monday. I've got a day off and I'm going to fritter it away ;-)
Oh yeah, England Egg Chasers were shut out to the tune of 33 points by Sarth Effrika in the Ruggery World Cup on Friday. I can gloat at the moment, but I wouldn't be surprised if Wales get stuffed by a similar score by Oz today.
Beating Charstards
It's all very well having multiple divisional championships, conference championships and Superbowl wins, but the N*w Engl*nd P*triots are also (allegedly...so far) a bunch of cheats.
They were caught stealing Jets defensive signals last weekend and according to this slightly tongue in cheek article, this isn't the first time this has happened. The Football Outsiders thread on this issue is worth reading too.
My take on this: anything that can help the rest of the league stop them is a good thing. I've never liked them and I don't intend changing that now. Here's the main reason I don't like them:
And here's a reason to rejoice:
To close the matter for the moment, this is what class looks and sounds like, Patriots fans. I was lucky enough to see Walter Payton play in person, at the inaugural American Bowl in London about six months after this interview.
Finally, a story that seemed bleak at the start of the week has now improved somewhat. Good luck to Kevin Everett.
I'll attempt some sort of round ball football update tomorrow as I've got a half day off.
They were caught stealing Jets defensive signals last weekend and according to this slightly tongue in cheek article, this isn't the first time this has happened. The Football Outsiders thread on this issue is worth reading too.
My take on this: anything that can help the rest of the league stop them is a good thing. I've never liked them and I don't intend changing that now. Here's the main reason I don't like them:
And here's a reason to rejoice:
To close the matter for the moment, this is what class looks and sounds like, Patriots fans. I was lucky enough to see Walter Payton play in person, at the inaugural American Bowl in London about six months after this interview.Finally, a story that seemed bleak at the start of the week has now improved somewhat. Good luck to Kevin Everett.
I'll attempt some sort of round ball football update tomorrow as I've got a half day off.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
The Hand Of Fate...
OK, here's what's happening with the NCAA bets so far:
LSU 1-0, beat Mississippi State 45-0. Looking good so far...facing 1-0 Virginia Tech in Baton Rouge this Saturday. 1-0 in SEC West. As the VTech game isn't a conference game, they could actually afford to drop this one, but as this could also be some sort of National Championship preview this is unlikely.
FSU 0-1, lost 14-28 to Clemson. 0-1 in conference games. Not too clever; they take on UAB in Tallahassee this weekend. This could get ugly quickly as FSU looks to rebound; I'll know more about where they are in the ACC after they play their next conference game (against North Carolina State on 6th October).
Michigan: 0-1, lost to Appalachian State. It's a damn good job that this wasn't a conference game and it's probably a damn good job that this weekend's opponents aren't in the Big Ten either. The bad news: Oregon beat Houston last weekend and Big Blue tumbled out of just about every poll in existence. Some more good news: the game is live on NASN at 8:30pm GMT Saturday night! Whooo! Alright! Rock and Roll etc.
The NFL starts properly this weekend too. There's too much going on already. Nothing for months then everything at once. Typical.
More to come, including a possible preview of a game I turned down tickets for: England v Israel this weekend in the qualifiers for Euro 2008.
And possibly some posh boy egg chasing, although New Zealand seem to have that tied up already and the tournament hasn't even started. Who they beat in the final would seem to be the more interesting prop.
Oh yeah, City are third in the Championship. It won't last, but so what.
LSU 1-0, beat Mississippi State 45-0. Looking good so far...facing 1-0 Virginia Tech in Baton Rouge this Saturday. 1-0 in SEC West. As the VTech game isn't a conference game, they could actually afford to drop this one, but as this could also be some sort of National Championship preview this is unlikely.
FSU 0-1, lost 14-28 to Clemson. 0-1 in conference games. Not too clever; they take on UAB in Tallahassee this weekend. This could get ugly quickly as FSU looks to rebound; I'll know more about where they are in the ACC after they play their next conference game (against North Carolina State on 6th October).
Michigan: 0-1, lost to Appalachian State. It's a damn good job that this wasn't a conference game and it's probably a damn good job that this weekend's opponents aren't in the Big Ten either. The bad news: Oregon beat Houston last weekend and Big Blue tumbled out of just about every poll in existence. Some more good news: the game is live on NASN at 8:30pm GMT Saturday night! Whooo! Alright! Rock and Roll etc.
The NFL starts properly this weekend too. There's too much going on already. Nothing for months then everything at once. Typical.
More to come, including a possible preview of a game I turned down tickets for: England v Israel this weekend in the qualifiers for Euro 2008.
And possibly some posh boy egg chasing, although New Zealand seem to have that tied up already and the tournament hasn't even started. Who they beat in the final would seem to be the more interesting prop.
Oh yeah, City are third in the Championship. It won't last, but so what.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Everything is back!
Whooooooooooo! I'm excited!!!
OK, here's the City situation. Two league games, two points, three goals...and yesterday morning I was in a queue for tickets for the second round Carling Cup game against Premier League leaders Manchester City.
Yes, that sentence is correct. Looking back on the posts from last season and looking at what's already happening it really is another world in the Championship. We've got England U21 v Romania U21 at the Gate tonight (more Sky money), the Man City game is on Sky (more money) as are the home games against Sheffield United and the away game at Sheffield Wednesday. Even more TV money.
Without wanting to sound triumphalist (remembering what happened last time we were at this level), this is some kind of reward for all those lack luster performances, all those rubbish games, just missing out on promotion and losing in the play offs. This is such a wonderful opportunity for everyone connected with the club.
And now...Madama Zaza presents her NFL Divisional and College Football predictions!
(First price is willhill.com, second price is bet365)
AFC East: New England Patriots (1/4 & 2/9)
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (11/4 & 12/5) or Baltimore Ravens (13/8*)
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (4/1*)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (9/4 or 2/1 ) or San Diego Chargers (4/7 or 8/13)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (6/4 or 7/4)
NFC North: Green Bay Packers (11/2*)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6/1)
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks (11/8 or 7/5) or San Francisco 49ers (2/1 or 11/4)
Some surprises there! I like the Eagles at and the 49ers prices but the Chargers' price looks silly and doesn't take into account Norv Turner taking over from Marty Schottenheimer. Signficantly, bet365 hasn't got a line for the NFC South...perhaps because nobody knows who the Falcons quarterback will be. More of that another day.
As for College, willhill.com will only take bets on the BCS Championship whereas bet365 will let you punt on individual conferences. So here's MZ's tips:
Big XII: Oklahoma (9/4) (key date: 13th October - OU v Missouri)
Pac 10: USC (2/5)
SEC: LSU (5/4)
Big X: Michigan (2/1)
ACC: Virginia Tech (11/5) or Florida State (2/1) (Nov 10th: FSU at VT)
The Whole Thing: USC
Phew. I need a lie down!
OK, here's the City situation. Two league games, two points, three goals...and yesterday morning I was in a queue for tickets for the second round Carling Cup game against Premier League leaders Manchester City.
Yes, that sentence is correct. Looking back on the posts from last season and looking at what's already happening it really is another world in the Championship. We've got England U21 v Romania U21 at the Gate tonight (more Sky money), the Man City game is on Sky (more money) as are the home games against Sheffield United and the away game at Sheffield Wednesday. Even more TV money.
Without wanting to sound triumphalist (remembering what happened last time we were at this level), this is some kind of reward for all those lack luster performances, all those rubbish games, just missing out on promotion and losing in the play offs. This is such a wonderful opportunity for everyone connected with the club.
And now...Madama Zaza presents her NFL Divisional and College Football predictions!
(First price is willhill.com, second price is bet365)
AFC East: New England Patriots (1/4 & 2/9)
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (11/4 & 12/5) or Baltimore Ravens (13/8*)
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (4/1*)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (9/4 or 2/1 ) or San Diego Chargers (4/7 or 8/13)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (6/4 or 7/4)
NFC North: Green Bay Packers (11/2*)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6/1)
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks (11/8 or 7/5) or San Francisco 49ers (2/1 or 11/4)
Some surprises there! I like the Eagles at and the 49ers prices but the Chargers' price looks silly and doesn't take into account Norv Turner taking over from Marty Schottenheimer. Signficantly, bet365 hasn't got a line for the NFC South...perhaps because nobody knows who the Falcons quarterback will be. More of that another day.
As for College, willhill.com will only take bets on the BCS Championship whereas bet365 will let you punt on individual conferences. So here's MZ's tips:
Big XII: Oklahoma (9/4) (key date: 13th October - OU v Missouri)
Pac 10: USC (2/5)
SEC: LSU (5/4)
Big X: Michigan (2/1)
ACC: Virginia Tech (11/5) or Florida State (2/1) (Nov 10th: FSU at VT)
The Whole Thing: USC
Phew. I need a lie down!
Sunday, July 22, 2007
Michael Vick: WTF?
Michael Vick is making headlines for all the wrong reasons.
My take: I agree with Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia: dogfighting is a barbaric activity and if the charges against Vick are proven then he's in a lot of trouble. He's in a massive sh1tstorm anyway.
On a more positive note, it's great to see an AFC West preview appearing on the Kansas City Chiefs site that begins with:
'It’s time for the AFC West to start worrying about the Oakland Raiders again.'
It's not because raiders.com added two more languages to the site this week either.
I noticed the dinosaur story from the San Jose Mercury News and here it is. For years now I've subscribed to the theory that Neanderthals weren't killed off en masse by Homo Sapiens, but might have been gradually absorbed into the more dominant species - although restricted diet and economic factors have also been put forward. I wonder if this could be a similar idea?
Anyway, today's theory: dinosaurs were more humane than Michael Vick. Discuss.
My take: I agree with Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia: dogfighting is a barbaric activity and if the charges against Vick are proven then he's in a lot of trouble. He's in a massive sh1tstorm anyway.
On a more positive note, it's great to see an AFC West preview appearing on the Kansas City Chiefs site that begins with:
'It’s time for the AFC West to start worrying about the Oakland Raiders again.'
It's not because raiders.com added two more languages to the site this week either.
I noticed the dinosaur story from the San Jose Mercury News and here it is. For years now I've subscribed to the theory that Neanderthals weren't killed off en masse by Homo Sapiens, but might have been gradually absorbed into the more dominant species - although restricted diet and economic factors have also been put forward. I wonder if this could be a similar idea?
Anyway, today's theory: dinosaurs were more humane than Michael Vick. Discuss.
Friday, May 04, 2007
Nearly there...still...
OK, we lost at Millwall and Forest won. So here's the deal:
We beat Rotherham tomorrow and we're up. Forest have to play Crewe at home in what will be Dario Gradi's last game as Crewe manager.
Beat Forest and you'll never need to pay for anything in Bristol again.
But here's the interesting one: there always seems to be one team that comes from absolutely nowhere and this season it's Blackpool. If both City and Forest lose tomorrow, they'll go up.
Here's some stats to mull over:
City v Rotherham
Over the last eight homes, City's record is:
P8 (LOL!) W4 D2 L2 F10 A7 Pts 14
City failed to score twice in those games, against Swansea and Cheltenham. We've kept cleans sheets in half of our last eight home games as well, which is a stat that isn't being as emphasised as it should be. Going back over all 22 home league games this season, our scoring pattern looks like this:
Goals scored:
0 three times - two draws and a defeat
1 - nine times
2 - seven times, most recently in the win over Yeovil
3 - three times - three wins, although the last time we scored three goals at home was in January.
I won't bore you with the details, but the pattern over last eight games looks remarkably similar to that.
In contrast, Rotherham's last eight aways go like this:
W1 D2 L5 F4 A10 Pts 5.
They've failed to score in five of their last eight away games, the last time anyone failed to score against them was when they won at Brentford in March. Their last away clean sheet before that was against Brighton in February, but having seen Brighton in February, that doesn't surprise me.
So trying to be as objective as possible (once again), Rotherham 0 is not entirely out of the question.
So it looks like 1-0 (6/1 at William Hill) or 2-0 (5/1) would probably be realistic. Which would - of course - be enough.
Key points
Three of the four goals Rotherham have scored in their last eight games came in the first 20 minutes, including two in the first ten minutes. If Rotherham are going to score, it'll be early on (ie before ten minutes) or - and this is a particular City weakness in the last eight games - just before half time (three of the six goals conceded at home in the last eight games have been in this period). If Rotherham don't score early on, the chances are that they won't score at all.
If the patterns within Rotherham's away form and City's home form occur tomorrow, City should probably be a goal up half way through the first half (first fifteen minutes seems like a good time), with the possibility of a second before the end of the half. It then becomes more likely that there might be a third before the hour.
So...City need to score early and make sure they don't let Rotherham back in the game before half time.
In other news...
Leeds United will be playing in the third tier of English Football for the first time EVER...which is still frankly astonishing, especially as their decline was so dramatic. The Times has a brief timeline of how it all happened.
The 'All English' Champions League Final will have to wait another day. Not bothered about who wins in Athens in a couple of weeks although I'd pay to see Gennaro Gattuso and Craig Bellamy have a pop at each other.
You just know that Gattuso would have had something to say if necessary.
Don't you just know that Gennaro and Craig were meant for each other...
I'm going to have to change my desktop wallpaper, as Randy Moss was traded to the Patriots on Sunday. I can't bring myself to wish him good luck, so I hope it ends really badly for him.
If you clicked on the link above, you'd also have read that Troy Smith ended up being taken by the Ravens in the fifth round. Well fancy that. I didn't think that he looked anything like a first rounder and I said so:
'I can't remember which one of the ABC/ESPN commentary team (Brent Musberger, Bob Davie and Kirk Herbstreit) was raving about Smith being a first round draft pick now, but it strikes me that this is an extremely premature assessment. There's no doubting that he has the ability, but as I mentioned above, he will need work on handling pressure situations and there are accuracy and consistency issues. He was outstanding in the first half of the game, but dropped off dramatically in the second.'
Madame Zaza, top pro prospect evaluator.
I have no idea what to do with my Randy Moss replica jersey now...perhaps I'll order a brand new JaMarcus Russell one.
The Oakland pick that I'm really intrigued by is that of Michael Bush of Louisville in the fourth round (incidentally, the round that formed part of the Moss trade); way back in November I wished him good luck after he broke his leg in the game against Kentucky. Now almost six months later he's a Raider.
There will be more. There always is.
We beat Rotherham tomorrow and we're up. Forest have to play Crewe at home in what will be Dario Gradi's last game as Crewe manager.
Beat Forest and you'll never need to pay for anything in Bristol again.But here's the interesting one: there always seems to be one team that comes from absolutely nowhere and this season it's Blackpool. If both City and Forest lose tomorrow, they'll go up.
Here's some stats to mull over:
City v Rotherham
Over the last eight homes, City's record is:
P8 (LOL!) W4 D2 L2 F10 A7 Pts 14
City failed to score twice in those games, against Swansea and Cheltenham. We've kept cleans sheets in half of our last eight home games as well, which is a stat that isn't being as emphasised as it should be. Going back over all 22 home league games this season, our scoring pattern looks like this:
Goals scored:
0 three times - two draws and a defeat
1 - nine times
2 - seven times, most recently in the win over Yeovil
3 - three times - three wins, although the last time we scored three goals at home was in January.
I won't bore you with the details, but the pattern over last eight games looks remarkably similar to that.
In contrast, Rotherham's last eight aways go like this:
W1 D2 L5 F4 A10 Pts 5.
They've failed to score in five of their last eight away games, the last time anyone failed to score against them was when they won at Brentford in March. Their last away clean sheet before that was against Brighton in February, but having seen Brighton in February, that doesn't surprise me.
So trying to be as objective as possible (once again), Rotherham 0 is not entirely out of the question.
So it looks like 1-0 (6/1 at William Hill) or 2-0 (5/1) would probably be realistic. Which would - of course - be enough.
Key points
Three of the four goals Rotherham have scored in their last eight games came in the first 20 minutes, including two in the first ten minutes. If Rotherham are going to score, it'll be early on (ie before ten minutes) or - and this is a particular City weakness in the last eight games - just before half time (three of the six goals conceded at home in the last eight games have been in this period). If Rotherham don't score early on, the chances are that they won't score at all.
If the patterns within Rotherham's away form and City's home form occur tomorrow, City should probably be a goal up half way through the first half (first fifteen minutes seems like a good time), with the possibility of a second before the end of the half. It then becomes more likely that there might be a third before the hour.
So...City need to score early and make sure they don't let Rotherham back in the game before half time.
In other news...
Leeds United will be playing in the third tier of English Football for the first time EVER...which is still frankly astonishing, especially as their decline was so dramatic. The Times has a brief timeline of how it all happened.
The 'All English' Champions League Final will have to wait another day. Not bothered about who wins in Athens in a couple of weeks although I'd pay to see Gennaro Gattuso and Craig Bellamy have a pop at each other.
You just know that Gattuso would have had something to say if necessary.
Don't you just know that Gennaro and Craig were meant for each other...I'm going to have to change my desktop wallpaper, as Randy Moss was traded to the Patriots on Sunday. I can't bring myself to wish him good luck, so I hope it ends really badly for him.
If you clicked on the link above, you'd also have read that Troy Smith ended up being taken by the Ravens in the fifth round. Well fancy that. I didn't think that he looked anything like a first rounder and I said so:
'I can't remember which one of the ABC/ESPN commentary team (Brent Musberger, Bob Davie and Kirk Herbstreit) was raving about Smith being a first round draft pick now, but it strikes me that this is an extremely premature assessment. There's no doubting that he has the ability, but as I mentioned above, he will need work on handling pressure situations and there are accuracy and consistency issues. He was outstanding in the first half of the game, but dropped off dramatically in the second.'
Madame Zaza, top pro prospect evaluator.
I have no idea what to do with my Randy Moss replica jersey now...perhaps I'll order a brand new JaMarcus Russell one.
The Oakland pick that I'm really intrigued by is that of Michael Bush of Louisville in the fourth round (incidentally, the round that formed part of the Moss trade); way back in November I wished him good luck after he broke his leg in the game against Kentucky. Now almost six months later he's a Raider.
There will be more. There always is.
Saturday, April 28, 2007
Nearly there...
First of all, RIP Alan Ball (1945 - 2007)
Another one of the players I grew up with as a kid in the 1970s passes away: Alan Ball was up there with George Best, Bobby Moore and Billy Bremner. If you get a chance to see the 1966 World Cup Final, watch him - red number 7 jersey. That's what managers mean when they talk about 'having a good engine' and 'work rate'.
Now on to the sublime and the ridiculous. This may be the only blog in the e-niverse that features JaMarcus Russell, Tony Blackburn...and The Wurzels apparently playing some sort of demented ska version of 'I Am A Cider Drinker'. You have been warned.
A simple, yet stark truth to today's proceedings:
A win at Millwall will mean City are up with a game left. Unbelievably, there's a scenario where City could lose and still get promoted...see below.
It's difficult to keep focused on the implications of this, so here are some cold hard facts. Millwall can't make the playoffs now, despite a reasonably impressive run of form which saw them lose only three of their last games and beating Swansea and Nottingham Forest at home. However, they fell on their arses last week after Huddersfield Town beat them 4-2.
I don't imagine for one minute that Millwall won't be up for this, it's their last home game of the season and they'll be relishing the spoiler role.
Here's the scenarios:
City and Forest win: City up
City win, Forest draw: City up
City win, Forest lose: City up
City draw, Forest draw: City up
City draw, Forest lose: City up
City lose, Forest lose: City up
City draw, Forest win: goes to last day
City lose, Forest win: goes to last day
City lose, Forest draw: goes to last day
Not bad. Six of nine possible outcomes are positive.
And I'll be at Ashton Gate today anyway: I'm going to watch Bristol play Gloucester at Rugby. I wasn't quick enough to organise Millwall tickets and I don't want to go to Whitchurch Sports Centre to watch the live beamback. I'll be watching a different game, but I'll be outside and I'll be able to buy beer.
And as the sun begins to set on another football season, the sun begins to rise on another NFL season: the draft begins today although it looks as if NASN won't be carrying it over here...probably a good thing as after the first ten picks it gets a bit dull.
So who's going to be wearing Silver and Black next season: JaMarcus Russell or Calvin Johnson? I'll take either...both would be nice ;-)
JaMarcus Russell:
Calvin Johnson:
DEFINITELY more to come today, although it might be a little...unfocused, regardless of whatever happens.
Another one of the players I grew up with as a kid in the 1970s passes away: Alan Ball was up there with George Best, Bobby Moore and Billy Bremner. If you get a chance to see the 1966 World Cup Final, watch him - red number 7 jersey. That's what managers mean when they talk about 'having a good engine' and 'work rate'.Now on to the sublime and the ridiculous. This may be the only blog in the e-niverse that features JaMarcus Russell, Tony Blackburn...and The Wurzels apparently playing some sort of demented ska version of 'I Am A Cider Drinker'. You have been warned.
A simple, yet stark truth to today's proceedings:
A win at Millwall will mean City are up with a game left. Unbelievably, there's a scenario where City could lose and still get promoted...see below.
It's difficult to keep focused on the implications of this, so here are some cold hard facts. Millwall can't make the playoffs now, despite a reasonably impressive run of form which saw them lose only three of their last games and beating Swansea and Nottingham Forest at home. However, they fell on their arses last week after Huddersfield Town beat them 4-2.
I don't imagine for one minute that Millwall won't be up for this, it's their last home game of the season and they'll be relishing the spoiler role.
Here's the scenarios:
City and Forest win: City up
City win, Forest draw: City up
City win, Forest lose: City up
City draw, Forest draw: City up
City draw, Forest lose: City up
City lose, Forest lose: City up
City draw, Forest win: goes to last day
City lose, Forest win: goes to last day
City lose, Forest draw: goes to last day
Not bad. Six of nine possible outcomes are positive.
And I'll be at Ashton Gate today anyway: I'm going to watch Bristol play Gloucester at Rugby. I wasn't quick enough to organise Millwall tickets and I don't want to go to Whitchurch Sports Centre to watch the live beamback. I'll be watching a different game, but I'll be outside and I'll be able to buy beer.
And as the sun begins to set on another football season, the sun begins to rise on another NFL season: the draft begins today although it looks as if NASN won't be carrying it over here...probably a good thing as after the first ten picks it gets a bit dull.
So who's going to be wearing Silver and Black next season: JaMarcus Russell or Calvin Johnson? I'll take either...both would be nice ;-)
JaMarcus Russell:
Calvin Johnson:
DEFINITELY more to come today, although it might be a little...unfocused, regardless of whatever happens.
Monday, February 05, 2007
Colts Win The Superbowl
Peyton Manning: MVP.Despite an electrifying opening kickoff return for a touchdown by Devin Hester, the Indianapolis Colts won Superbowl 41 by 29-17 in Miami last night. The score was arguably a reflection of the difference between the two teams, but a closer look at the numbers shows that there's a case to be made for the argument that the 'big win for the Colts' scenario was achievable.
On Thursday I questioned Rex Grossman's ability as a quarterback and my opinion not only seems to have been justified, but one of my favourite sportswriters also though it. To recap, here are his 2006 stats before the big game:
Regular Season:
262 for 480 (54%) for 3193 yards, 23 TDs and 20 INTs for a rating of 73.9
Post Season:
32 for 64 (50%) for 426 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INTs for a rating of 75.4
Now here's the line for Superbowl XLI:
20 of 28 (71%) for 165 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTS for a rating of 68.3. Remember, five of those completions were made with less than two minutes left at the end of the game when the result wasn't in doubt: he basically played at a level below both his regular season and post season performances - Joey Harrington and Jake Plummer territory in fact.
Again, the emphasis must be on team rather than individual performance, but it should be blindingly obvious to the Bears coaching staff that the one area which was a let down was passing offense. Grossman either needs to improve or Lovie Smith needs to find a new quarterback.
Run/Pass Ratios Revisited
Counting the rushing attempts by Manning and Dallas Clark (the first was a scramble, the second one looked like some sort of college option from Manning's days in the SEC), Indy ran 42 times and passed 38 times, a 52/48 ratio that had more in common with their regular season ratio when they were a far more balanced team offensively.
I deliberately made a note of the first fifteen plays for each team to see what - if any - pattern I could discern. The Colts passed on 9 of their first fifteen plays (60%) whereas the Bears had a 60/40 run/pass ratio - nine of their game total of 19 rushing attempts came in the first fifteen plays. On the day, the Bears run/pass ratio was 40/60; during the regular season it had been almost exactly 50/50.
It's probably too early to tell exactly how this affected both teams, but it looks very much as if the Colts returned to the style of play that got them to the Superbowl in the first place whereas the Bears sideline may - may - have panicked and decided to push the envelope with a player who is not known for that. I've been listening to ESPN radio this morning (Ron Jaworski has just referred to a 'positive play count' which is basically number of rushes plus completions - the higher the better, 50 is some kind of gold standard) and the Chicago coaches are not being lauded for their playcalling. I'll check out WSCR-AM later.
Last scoring play of the game: a interception return for a touchdown by Indy reserve defensive back Kelvin Hayden, who went to Illinois and grew up in Chicago.
Sometimes it's just not your day.
Thursday, February 01, 2007
Rex Grossman endears himself to the media
WSCR 670 The Score is currently commenting on the Jim McMahonesque stunt today that Rex Grossman pulled today: addressing the American media about '...how ignorant some of you guys are' (love to know who was laughing in the background!)
Apparently it's all about selling newspapers. Grossman is all about playing quarterback, so let's see how he shaped up:
Regular Season:
262 for 480 (54%) for 3193 yards, 23 TDs and 20 INTs for a rating of 73.9
Post Season:
32 for 64 (50%) for 426 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INTs for a rating of 75.4
This puts him in the same territory as Alex Smith and Matt Leinart (better ratings) plus Brett Favre and Charlie Frye (worse ratings). It may or may not be significant, but none of those players played for teams with winning records this season.
Here's Jim McMahon's stats for the '85 regular season:
178 for 313 (56.8%) for 2392 yards, 15 TDs and 11 INTs for a rating of 82.6, 10% better than Grossman this season and at the same kind of level as Chad Pennington, Steve McNair and Jake Delhomme in 2006. None of those three had a losing season; the Jets and the Ravens made the playoffs.
Here's a stat for y'all: over the last ten years, the average regular season rating for winning Superbowl QBs has been 91.8. Here are some players from 2006 that scored above that - Drew Brees, Damon Huard, Marc Bulger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb...and Peyton Manning.
OK, football is a team game and the result will not hinge on the performance of one player, but all things being equal it's obvious that Manning is a better quarterback than Grossman and I'd even go as far to say that Chicago has got this far despite Rex Grossman rather than because of him.
Another way of looking at both QB productivity is OL strength. I don't have the time or the resources to come up with a Football Outsiders style analysis but I do have a modified version of their OL stats that I use for the analysing OL performance in the EFL.
The Colts gave up the fewest sacks in the entire league during the regular season (15), but have already given up a third of this total in three post season games. Although the Bears have been inferior in this respect, they've actually been more consistent throughout (25 sacks given up in the regular season) and there's nothing much between them on average yards per rushing attempt; one possible reason for the difference between regular and post season sacks is that Indy have a 47/53 run/pass ratio in the post season as opposed to 56/44 ratio in the regular season - basically, Manning has had to pass more, so realistically the amount of sacks should increase.
Madame Zaza wants to interrupt again: if the Colts can get back to a more balanced offensive approach on Sunday, it might be the crucial difference. If Indy can establish the run early then Manning can run the offense that got them to the big show; if 'Bad Rex' turns up and all the Bears can do is run, then it could be a long afternoon for Chicago fans.
All I'm saying is that there is an 'Indianapolis winning a blow out' scenario.
Apparently it's all about selling newspapers. Grossman is all about playing quarterback, so let's see how he shaped up:
Regular Season:
262 for 480 (54%) for 3193 yards, 23 TDs and 20 INTs for a rating of 73.9
Post Season:
32 for 64 (50%) for 426 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INTs for a rating of 75.4
This puts him in the same territory as Alex Smith and Matt Leinart (better ratings) plus Brett Favre and Charlie Frye (worse ratings). It may or may not be significant, but none of those players played for teams with winning records this season.
Here's Jim McMahon's stats for the '85 regular season:
178 for 313 (56.8%) for 2392 yards, 15 TDs and 11 INTs for a rating of 82.6, 10% better than Grossman this season and at the same kind of level as Chad Pennington, Steve McNair and Jake Delhomme in 2006. None of those three had a losing season; the Jets and the Ravens made the playoffs.
Here's a stat for y'all: over the last ten years, the average regular season rating for winning Superbowl QBs has been 91.8. Here are some players from 2006 that scored above that - Drew Brees, Damon Huard, Marc Bulger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb...and Peyton Manning.
OK, football is a team game and the result will not hinge on the performance of one player, but all things being equal it's obvious that Manning is a better quarterback than Grossman and I'd even go as far to say that Chicago has got this far despite Rex Grossman rather than because of him.
Another way of looking at both QB productivity is OL strength. I don't have the time or the resources to come up with a Football Outsiders style analysis but I do have a modified version of their OL stats that I use for the analysing OL performance in the EFL.
The Colts gave up the fewest sacks in the entire league during the regular season (15), but have already given up a third of this total in three post season games. Although the Bears have been inferior in this respect, they've actually been more consistent throughout (25 sacks given up in the regular season) and there's nothing much between them on average yards per rushing attempt; one possible reason for the difference between regular and post season sacks is that Indy have a 47/53 run/pass ratio in the post season as opposed to 56/44 ratio in the regular season - basically, Manning has had to pass more, so realistically the amount of sacks should increase.
Madame Zaza wants to interrupt again: if the Colts can get back to a more balanced offensive approach on Sunday, it might be the crucial difference. If Indy can establish the run early then Manning can run the offense that got them to the big show; if 'Bad Rex' turns up and all the Bears can do is run, then it could be a long afternoon for Chicago fans.
All I'm saying is that there is an 'Indianapolis winning a blow out' scenario.
Monday, January 29, 2007
Superbowl Week: Monday
OK, straight to the point: head says Colts, heart says Bears.
For a while now, I think that Peyton Manning has been the best passing quarterback in the league and he has the supporting cast that could potentially make this a blowout if Ron Rivera's defensive scheme doesn't work. The knock against Indianapolis earlier in the season was that they couldn't stop the run but they have been unrecognisable recently and this is why head is going with them.
Heart is going for the Bears for a number of reasons. The first pro football game I ever saw live was the 1986 American Bowl at Wembley Stadium, at the beginning of the season following the triumph of Superbowl XX. So I saw Walter Payton, Jim McMahon, The Fridge and all the other luminaries on arguably one of the most complete football teams I think I've ever seen. This season I've had more fun following the Bears than the Raiders, but whereas the Raiders are an obligation the Bears have always been a way of enjoying the NFL without screaming blue murder at the TV.
In a lot of ways, the game is Old School as well. Until the re-organisation of the NFL in 1969, both the Colts and the Bears were in the NFC and the Colts were the first team to represent both conferences in the Superbowl: they lost to the Joe Namath inspired NY Jets in SB3 and beat Dallas in SB5 (in Miami when the Colts wore white!) with a Jim O'Brien field goal with five seconds left.
Madame Zaza time: will I be publishing a photo of Adam Viniateri doing something similar to this on Monday morning?
It's all very well considering the past, but here are some threads leading up to the game that are of interest.
Hardly surprisingly considering what happened to the team in 1984, the city of Baltimore isn't supporting the Colts. Neither are these old Baltimore Colt alums, but they seem to like Peyton Manning. This story is really sad; John Mackey was one of the pioneers at the Tight End position at roughly the same time Mike Ditka had a similar role with the Bears and Cowboys.
John Mackey
Mike Ditka
For a while now, I think that Peyton Manning has been the best passing quarterback in the league and he has the supporting cast that could potentially make this a blowout if Ron Rivera's defensive scheme doesn't work. The knock against Indianapolis earlier in the season was that they couldn't stop the run but they have been unrecognisable recently and this is why head is going with them.
Heart is going for the Bears for a number of reasons. The first pro football game I ever saw live was the 1986 American Bowl at Wembley Stadium, at the beginning of the season following the triumph of Superbowl XX. So I saw Walter Payton, Jim McMahon, The Fridge and all the other luminaries on arguably one of the most complete football teams I think I've ever seen. This season I've had more fun following the Bears than the Raiders, but whereas the Raiders are an obligation the Bears have always been a way of enjoying the NFL without screaming blue murder at the TV.
In a lot of ways, the game is Old School as well. Until the re-organisation of the NFL in 1969, both the Colts and the Bears were in the NFC and the Colts were the first team to represent both conferences in the Superbowl: they lost to the Joe Namath inspired NY Jets in SB3 and beat Dallas in SB5 (in Miami when the Colts wore white!) with a Jim O'Brien field goal with five seconds left.
Madame Zaza time: will I be publishing a photo of Adam Viniateri doing something similar to this on Monday morning?
It's all very well considering the past, but here are some threads leading up to the game that are of interest.
Hardly surprisingly considering what happened to the team in 1984, the city of Baltimore isn't supporting the Colts. Neither are these old Baltimore Colt alums, but they seem to like Peyton Manning. This story is really sad; John Mackey was one of the pioneers at the Tight End position at roughly the same time Mike Ditka had a similar role with the Bears and Cowboys.
John Mackey
Mike DitkaI stumbled across a fantastic Bears website at bearshistory.com while I was looking for bits and pieces to post here on youtube.
Having said that, I haven't seen any stories about Colt fans that travel the 500 or so mile trip to Indy to support the team rather than staying in Maryland to support either the Ravens or the Redskins. It's about the same distance from Oakland to Los Angeles as it is between Bristol and Glasgow; seeing as though I now seem to be locked into this, Chicago to Indianapolis is less than 200 miles.
Enough rambling.
Having said that, I haven't seen any stories about Colt fans that travel the 500 or so mile trip to Indy to support the team rather than staying in Maryland to support either the Ravens or the Redskins. It's about the same distance from Oakland to Los Angeles as it is between Bristol and Glasgow; seeing as though I now seem to be locked into this, Chicago to Indianapolis is less than 200 miles.
Enough rambling.
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
All you can ever want
Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!
Coventry 0, City 2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The NFL is coming to London!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Two out of three ain’t bad
Well, ‘Jimmy’ got 66% of his predictions correct: City drew with Orient (after having gone behind again) and Scunny drew with Port Vale, but he got Old Ham v
Old Ham won 5-0 and
Elsewhere, something mildly surprising happened: Paul LeGuen left Glasgow Rangers by mutual consent - presumably as opposed to being forced into it by a dose of Rohypnol or several pints of ‘heavy’ and a deep fried Mars Bar. Talking of the old heave ho tin tack treatment, the following NFL coaches have fallen on their swords: Denny Green (Arizona) to no-one’s surprise and Jim Mora (Atlanta) in what seems to be a joint effort by the ownership and Ron Mexico.
But the best story of Bowl Season:
Sunday, December 10, 2006
Sunday Stuffing
Manyoo are nine points ahead of Chelski in Division 1 (although they have played two games more than Shabby Peasant's mob), the bottom three (West Ham, Charlton and Watford) already look in serious trouble. It's Chelski v The Arse this afternoon at Stamford Bridge and I find myself in the position of wanting Obscene's lot to win, even though I don't think they will; they've never liked it up 'em as this clip from earlier in the season shows.
West Ham just beat you. West Ham!
Peculiar Division 1 stats of the week: Man City have only conceded one goal at home this season (19 let in away!) and despite being eighth and three points away from a potential European Cup spot, Spurs haven't won away.
Ten points separates the top nine teams in Division 2, Birmingham City and Derby County lead the way. At the bottom Southend United and Hull City have an air of despair about them (even though Southend beat Southampton yesterday) but quite what Leeds United are doing down there is beyond me. Perhaps I should investigate.
Ten points also separates the top six in Division 3 but there's a five point gap between Nottingham Forest and second placed Scunthorpe United who are now ahead of City by two points. It's knees up cockney ding dong time at the bottom, with two of the four clubs in the drop zone coming from The Smoke, although next week's opponents (Millwall*) managed to pull themselves out of the bottom four after beating Bradford 2-0 yesterday.
If you take the Man City stat above and reverse it, you have Northampton Town. They've only let in six goals on their travels this season (as many as Forest and Scunthorpe and five less than City) but they've been absolutely dreadful at Sixfields this season.
Story of the year is Rotherham United. Having been docked ten points for going into administration, they've clawed their way back up the table and if they'd not had that penalty they'd be a potential play off team. We got a point up there yesterday and that's a bloody good result.
Walsall have a seven point lead in Division Four despite having lost to second placed Swindle on Saturday. It's pretty tight after that. Right at the bottom of the league we have Paul Inces' Macclesfield Town, seven points adrift of three clubs on 20 points.
In the Nationwide Conference, Oxford United lead the way. 20 years ago they were in Division 1; 30 odd years ago they played Sunderland in the first ever league game I saw.
Oxford United's old Manor Ground: now flats apparently.
On the other side of the pond, there are only three weeks left in the regular season and the play off picture is a little clearer.
In the AFC, both Indianapolis and San Diego (currently on a six game winning streak - they can clinch the division title today with a win over Denver and put £3.20 into my pocket!) have 10-2 records with New England and Baltimore leading their respective divisions but a game behind. After that it gets messy again with five teams on 7-5 records, including the 'surprise of the year' New York Jets. In the NFC Da Bears have clinched their division but there doesn't seem to be a lot of confidence in Rex Grossman; Dallas, New Orleans and Seattle top the other divisions with 8-4 records but then it's a pile up with the possibility that a team with a .500 record could reach the post season.
(There's still a long way to go yet, but the application of the 'offense wins games, defense wins championships' theory still seems to indicate a Ravens/Bears Superbowl in February. But the angle for that one could be Steve McNair v Brian Griese...)
Now on to the only possible interest left for any Raider fan: the race for first pick is currently between Oakland and Detroit. What are the odds that 2006 Heismann Trophy winnner Troy Smith won't end up with either of them? Probably not that bad: a lot of self proclaimed experts think that if Detroit ends up with the initial choice they'll take Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn.
So that's Scott Mitchell, George Plympton, Jon Kitna and...
But that would be underestimating the Raiders ability to self destruct even further. Including today's games, the Lions have a slightly easier schedule: their opponents are 27-21 for the season and their last two regular season games may be 'meaningless' as Chicago has already qualified for the playoffs and Dallas may not need the win in the last game. On the other hand, Oakland plays three teams with post season aspirations (Cincinnati, Kansas and the Jets). It's not inconceivable that the Raiders may end the season 2-14 and be rewarded with the overall first round pick.
Oh God, I'll consider what a potential disaster that could be when the season is over. It'll happen and we'll pick the wrong player.
MSK's games of the week: Baltimore at Kansas and New Orleans at Dallas. Stuffing: Oakland at Cincinnati.
* I feel a midweek post coming on.
West Ham just beat you. West Ham!
Peculiar Division 1 stats of the week: Man City have only conceded one goal at home this season (19 let in away!) and despite being eighth and three points away from a potential European Cup spot, Spurs haven't won away.
Ten points separates the top nine teams in Division 2, Birmingham City and Derby County lead the way. At the bottom Southend United and Hull City have an air of despair about them (even though Southend beat Southampton yesterday) but quite what Leeds United are doing down there is beyond me. Perhaps I should investigate.
Ten points also separates the top six in Division 3 but there's a five point gap between Nottingham Forest and second placed Scunthorpe United who are now ahead of City by two points. It's knees up cockney ding dong time at the bottom, with two of the four clubs in the drop zone coming from The Smoke, although next week's opponents (Millwall*) managed to pull themselves out of the bottom four after beating Bradford 2-0 yesterday.
If you take the Man City stat above and reverse it, you have Northampton Town. They've only let in six goals on their travels this season (as many as Forest and Scunthorpe and five less than City) but they've been absolutely dreadful at Sixfields this season.
Story of the year is Rotherham United. Having been docked ten points for going into administration, they've clawed their way back up the table and if they'd not had that penalty they'd be a potential play off team. We got a point up there yesterday and that's a bloody good result.
Walsall have a seven point lead in Division Four despite having lost to second placed Swindle on Saturday. It's pretty tight after that. Right at the bottom of the league we have Paul Inces' Macclesfield Town, seven points adrift of three clubs on 20 points.
In the Nationwide Conference, Oxford United lead the way. 20 years ago they were in Division 1; 30 odd years ago they played Sunderland in the first ever league game I saw.
Oxford United's old Manor Ground: now flats apparently.On the other side of the pond, there are only three weeks left in the regular season and the play off picture is a little clearer.
In the AFC, both Indianapolis and San Diego (currently on a six game winning streak - they can clinch the division title today with a win over Denver and put £3.20 into my pocket!) have 10-2 records with New England and Baltimore leading their respective divisions but a game behind. After that it gets messy again with five teams on 7-5 records, including the 'surprise of the year' New York Jets. In the NFC Da Bears have clinched their division but there doesn't seem to be a lot of confidence in Rex Grossman; Dallas, New Orleans and Seattle top the other divisions with 8-4 records but then it's a pile up with the possibility that a team with a .500 record could reach the post season.
(There's still a long way to go yet, but the application of the 'offense wins games, defense wins championships' theory still seems to indicate a Ravens/Bears Superbowl in February. But the angle for that one could be Steve McNair v Brian Griese...)
Now on to the only possible interest left for any Raider fan: the race for first pick is currently between Oakland and Detroit. What are the odds that 2006 Heismann Trophy winnner Troy Smith won't end up with either of them? Probably not that bad: a lot of self proclaimed experts think that if Detroit ends up with the initial choice they'll take Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn.
So that's Scott Mitchell, George Plympton, Jon Kitna and...But that would be underestimating the Raiders ability to self destruct even further. Including today's games, the Lions have a slightly easier schedule: their opponents are 27-21 for the season and their last two regular season games may be 'meaningless' as Chicago has already qualified for the playoffs and Dallas may not need the win in the last game. On the other hand, Oakland plays three teams with post season aspirations (Cincinnati, Kansas and the Jets). It's not inconceivable that the Raiders may end the season 2-14 and be rewarded with the overall first round pick.
Oh God, I'll consider what a potential disaster that could be when the season is over. It'll happen and we'll pick the wrong player.
MSK's games of the week: Baltimore at Kansas and New Orleans at Dallas. Stuffing: Oakland at Cincinnati.
* I feel a midweek post coming on.
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
Champion's League and other stuff
Right, time is of the essence so here's a quick round up of all the essential nonsense that matters in MSK Today.
1. The Raiders were horrible on Sunday against the Texans. I could have watched the Giants/Cowboys game but I watched two awful teams. Houston deserved to win even though the Raider defense improved - but as the D was dire last year, the only way is up in any case.
1. The Raiders were horrible on Sunday against the Texans. I could have watched the Giants/Cowboys game but I watched two awful teams. Houston deserved to win even though the Raider defense improved - but as the D was dire last year, the only way is up in any case.
After Betty Everett, now Otis Clay* gets in on the act.
BTW, here's a picture of Raider defensive co-ordinator Rob Ryan:
2. The BCS Championship Game is (as exclusively predicted by myself!) is...OSU v Florida.
3. Barcelona and Chelski got through to the next stage of the European Cup but Manyoo need to beat Benfica at Old Trafford...wait, I'm getting some interference from the past here...
Now I'm excited.
More tomorrow.
* Not 'kin Yazz. Not here, not ever.
** Or the 'proper trouser' game. It's WINTER here, fer Chrissakes.
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Turkey Day
Right then, it's the third Thursday in November, which means I make an absolute ton of booze laced food and watch NFL. Despite what a lot of Brits say, we do actually celebrate Thanksgiving here, although it's far less important than in Canada and the USA. Over here, it's a celebration of the end of the harvesting season, would normally be on the Sunday nearest to the harvest moon in September and involves food. It's that tradition that the Pilgrims took with them when all the non-conformists were booted out of Blighty and landed up in the USA.
I started off cooking Thanksgiving Dinner for Cath and I about three or four years ago as a laugh - if I cooked, she'd let me watch the games. It's now an annual event - I like think of it as the official beginning of the countdown to Christmas. I know when it's Christmas when this starts happening:
But anyway, it's not Christmas yet so here's a quick look at the three games taking place later on.
Miami (4-6) at Detroit (2-8)
The Dolphins are on a three game winning streak and you just know that Joey Harrington would love to put one over his previous employers, who couldn't beat the skin off a rice pudding right now. After having posted a picture of Scott Mitchell and footage of Jon Kitna (who I've just traded for) being pounded, here's a picture of the most literate Lion quarterback ever: the late George Plimpton.
Do yourself a favour: get a copy of Paper Lion. Even non-football fans will enjoy it.
Tampa Bay at Dallas
Oh please please can the Buccs play in throwback uniforms? I'd love to see Chucky surrounded by one of the true manifestations of sporting awfulness.
Doug Williams a few years before 'The Quarter'
According to all sorts of rumours doing the rounds (most significantly from profootballtalk.com), this could be Chucky's last season in Florida. Apparently the Cardinals are interested and the lad himself may have made some overtures to the Steelers on the QT.
PFT's comment on him echoes what no less a source than (ahem) myself said a couple of weeks ago:
'The problem, of course, is that Gruden's star has fallen a bit over the past few years. No longer regarded as a hot-blooded up-and-comer, Gruden is now merely a grumpy middle-aged man with a mouth like a sh-t-sprayed sewer.'
Dallas by 14.
Denver at Kansas City
A game too far for me, which means I'll watch it tomorrow. I'll go with the Donkeys, even though late breaking news on ESPN Radio this afternoon strongly suggests that former Vanderbilt QB Jay Cutler will be starting tonight instead of 'Even' Jake Plummer, who is now most definitely Second Hand Rose.
Anyway, food doesn't cook itself and beer doesn't drink itself, so I'm off. Enjoy.
I started off cooking Thanksgiving Dinner for Cath and I about three or four years ago as a laugh - if I cooked, she'd let me watch the games. It's now an annual event - I like think of it as the official beginning of the countdown to Christmas. I know when it's Christmas when this starts happening:
The N**l Edm*nds free version. Thank fuck for that.
But anyway, it's not Christmas yet so here's a quick look at the three games taking place later on.
Miami (4-6) at Detroit (2-8)
The Dolphins are on a three game winning streak and you just know that Joey Harrington would love to put one over his previous employers, who couldn't beat the skin off a rice pudding right now. After having posted a picture of Scott Mitchell and footage of Jon Kitna (who I've just traded for) being pounded, here's a picture of the most literate Lion quarterback ever: the late George Plimpton.
Do yourself a favour: get a copy of Paper Lion. Even non-football fans will enjoy it.Tampa Bay at Dallas
Oh please please can the Buccs play in throwback uniforms? I'd love to see Chucky surrounded by one of the true manifestations of sporting awfulness.
Doug Williams a few years before 'The Quarter'According to all sorts of rumours doing the rounds (most significantly from profootballtalk.com), this could be Chucky's last season in Florida. Apparently the Cardinals are interested and the lad himself may have made some overtures to the Steelers on the QT.
PFT's comment on him echoes what no less a source than (ahem) myself said a couple of weeks ago:
'The problem, of course, is that Gruden's star has fallen a bit over the past few years. No longer regarded as a hot-blooded up-and-comer, Gruden is now merely a grumpy middle-aged man with a mouth like a sh-t-sprayed sewer.'
Dallas by 14.
Denver at Kansas City
A game too far for me, which means I'll watch it tomorrow. I'll go with the Donkeys, even though late breaking news on ESPN Radio this afternoon strongly suggests that former Vanderbilt QB Jay Cutler will be starting tonight instead of 'Even' Jake Plummer, who is now most definitely Second Hand Rose.
Anyway, food doesn't cook itself and beer doesn't drink itself, so I'm off. Enjoy.
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