OK, in no particular order:
Run/Pass Ratios
Pittsburgh hasn't changed much in their run/pass split. They were a marginal passing team in the regular season (52.3%); in the post season they're a marginal running team (53.8%). Basically, the Steelers run a balanced offense - even though that offense is not one of the best in the league.
Here's the interesting bit though. During the regular season, the Cardinals were what I'd call a strong passing team: the overall split was 64.95/35.05 in favour of the pass. This changed dramatically during the postseason. Arizona has bee a marginal run first team during the post season (52%) - that's a 17% swing.
Stomps, Dominations and Mutual Opponents
Coined by the Football Outsiders, the definition of a stomp: a win by more than 14 points against an opponent with an overall losing record. A 'domination' is the same thing against an opponent with a winning record.
The Cardinals are slightly ahead here with three stomps and two dominant wins. Two of the stomps came over the 2-14 St Louis Rams (the other was over the Buffalo Bills), the dominations were over Miami in Week 2 and Carolina on the road in the playoffs. Pittsburgh has one less domination, stomping Cincinnati twice and dominating the Patriots on the road.
Not much between them in that respect, but what may be more significant is that Pittsburgh is 3-2 versus mutual opponents with wins over Washington, Dallas and New England. Arizona is 2-4 with wins over Dallas and Philadelphia. Both teams lost to the New York Giants and both beat the Cowboys, which probably says more about the Cowboys than anything else.
The Better QB Doesn't Always Win
Well, the one with better regular season rating over the last decade anyway. 40% of the last ten games were won by the player with the better rating but that's been skewed recently with three of the last five (60%) Superbowls being won by the player with the better regular season passer rating. Intriguingly, both Warner and Roethlisberger are amongst the players with better passer ratings who won Superbowls (Warner over Steve McNair in 2000 and Roethlisberger over Matt Hasselbeck in 2006), when the Patriots beat Warner's Rams in 2001, Warner's rating was much better than Tom Brady's - as indeed Brady's was when Eli Manning caused a major upset last season. Warner has a rating that's 16.8 points better than Roethlisberger's going into tonight's game - similar to that when he lost to Brady in 2001, but also similar to when he beat McNair the season before.
So if defense wins championships (and the Pittsburgh defense performs as well as the billing), the Steelers win - although they are not facing an average offense, they may actually be facing the return of the Greatest Show On Turf . Conversely, if offense wins games, the Cardinals win.
The key: Ken Whisenhunt. Three seasons as Steelers offensive co-ordinator, two seasons as Cardinals head coach. If he can prepare his defense to take care of the Pittsburgh offense, then it's an Arizona win. He''ll have some help: I counted six assistants with the Cardinals who have some recent knowledge of the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is the favourite. See you tomorrow.
Showing posts with label Gambling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gambling. Show all posts
Sunday, February 01, 2009
OMG New Post LOL
Good grief...I last posted in September.
Anyway, it's the Superbowl Edition.
Right, stats. I looked at the last four games that the Steelers and the Cardinals played and did some really basic number crunching. First thing to remember is that half of the Steelers last four games were during the regular season and they went 3-1. The Cardinals were 4-0 and their last three wins were in the play offs.
I once won a bet on first TD scorer when I decided Deion Branch would do that, so I thought I'd take a look at that first - but remember this is only over the last four games. For Pittsburgh, the stats like a Willie Parker rushing TD (30% of Pitt's scores overall, half of the Steelers rushing TDs), for the Cardinals it's actually even clearer. Larry Fitzgerald's numbers over the last four games are seven touchdowns (58% of Arizona's total TDs and a whopping 70% of the Cards receiving TDs).
Currently both Parker and Fitzgerald are about 6/1 for first score, but remember that the numbers in the paragraphs are how likely they are to score at some point during the game rather than whether they score first. The category where they're worth a punt is 'Anytime Touchdown Scorer' and at this point the odds drop to 8/11 - which is basically saying that it's highly likely that Parker and/or Fitzgerald will score at some point.
Looking at the first TD scorer for both teams over the last four games, there are some more clues. The first TDs for Arizona were all receptions and Fitzgerald had half of them (the others were snagged by Tim Hightower and Jerheme Urban), which points in the direction of a bet on Arizona's first scoring play being a pass.
There's some variance in Pittsburgh's stats. Two rushing scores for Willie Parker (no surprise there) but two receptions for scores by Santonio Holmes...who is about 8/1 for first score. Hmm. This fits my 'anything less than 14/1 in a big field isn't a bad bet' theory.
Right, on to my next pet theory number one: regular season v. post season QB ratings. Exactly two years ago I posted this: 'Here's a stat for y'all: over the last ten years, the average regular season rating for winning Superbowl QBs has been 91.8. Here are some players from 2006 that scored above that - Drew Brees, Damon Huard, Marc Bulger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb...and Peyton Manning.'
Since then, the average has dropped to 89.9 because last year's winner (Eli Manning) had the worst regular season rating (73.9) - worse than the much maligned Trent Dilfer had in 2000 (76.6). Here are this season's figures:
Kurt Warner first:
Regular season rating was 96.9,
'Last four games' rating was 114.5
Post season rating was 112.1.
Ben Roethlisberger:
Regular season rating 80.1
Last four games 85.2
Post season 90.7
Warner's regular season rating would take fourth place over the last ten years, behind Peyton Manning in 2006, Ben Roethlisberger in 2005...and Kurt Warner in 1999. In fact - despite the nine season difference - Warner is only playing at 1.4 points below his '99 level. Impressive.
Roethlisberger's rating beats Dilfer and Eli Manning; he's 18.5 points below his 2005 level. I know it's not really an indicator of how the game is going to go, but this is an alert for Steelers fans - remember the average passer rating of the victorious QB during the regular season is 89.9 and Big Ben is ten points below that. I have time (and I probably will) I'll do some numbers for the losing QB. I'm also going to post some more stuff before the game but I need to do some other stuff first.
But here's a stupid one. 90% of the winning QBs over the last decade have had two syllable last names. The only one that hasn't is Ben Roethlisberger. Make of that what you will!
Anyway, it's the Superbowl Edition.
Right, stats. I looked at the last four games that the Steelers and the Cardinals played and did some really basic number crunching. First thing to remember is that half of the Steelers last four games were during the regular season and they went 3-1. The Cardinals were 4-0 and their last three wins were in the play offs.
I once won a bet on first TD scorer when I decided Deion Branch would do that, so I thought I'd take a look at that first - but remember this is only over the last four games. For Pittsburgh, the stats like a Willie Parker rushing TD (30% of Pitt's scores overall, half of the Steelers rushing TDs), for the Cardinals it's actually even clearer. Larry Fitzgerald's numbers over the last four games are seven touchdowns (58% of Arizona's total TDs and a whopping 70% of the Cards receiving TDs).
Currently both Parker and Fitzgerald are about 6/1 for first score, but remember that the numbers in the paragraphs are how likely they are to score at some point during the game rather than whether they score first. The category where they're worth a punt is 'Anytime Touchdown Scorer' and at this point the odds drop to 8/11 - which is basically saying that it's highly likely that Parker and/or Fitzgerald will score at some point.
Looking at the first TD scorer for both teams over the last four games, there are some more clues. The first TDs for Arizona were all receptions and Fitzgerald had half of them (the others were snagged by Tim Hightower and Jerheme Urban), which points in the direction of a bet on Arizona's first scoring play being a pass.
There's some variance in Pittsburgh's stats. Two rushing scores for Willie Parker (no surprise there) but two receptions for scores by Santonio Holmes...who is about 8/1 for first score. Hmm. This fits my 'anything less than 14/1 in a big field isn't a bad bet' theory.
Right, on to my next pet theory number one: regular season v. post season QB ratings. Exactly two years ago I posted this: 'Here's a stat for y'all: over the last ten years, the average regular season rating for winning Superbowl QBs has been 91.8. Here are some players from 2006 that scored above that - Drew Brees, Damon Huard, Marc Bulger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb...and Peyton Manning.'
Since then, the average has dropped to 89.9 because last year's winner (Eli Manning) had the worst regular season rating (73.9) - worse than the much maligned Trent Dilfer had in 2000 (76.6). Here are this season's figures:
Kurt Warner first:
Regular season rating was 96.9,
'Last four games' rating was 114.5
Post season rating was 112.1.
Ben Roethlisberger:
Regular season rating 80.1
Last four games 85.2
Post season 90.7
Warner's regular season rating would take fourth place over the last ten years, behind Peyton Manning in 2006, Ben Roethlisberger in 2005...and Kurt Warner in 1999. In fact - despite the nine season difference - Warner is only playing at 1.4 points below his '99 level. Impressive.
Roethlisberger's rating beats Dilfer and Eli Manning; he's 18.5 points below his 2005 level. I know it's not really an indicator of how the game is going to go, but this is an alert for Steelers fans - remember the average passer rating of the victorious QB during the regular season is 89.9 and Big Ben is ten points below that. I have time (and I probably will) I'll do some numbers for the losing QB. I'm also going to post some more stuff before the game but I need to do some other stuff first.
But here's a stupid one. 90% of the winning QBs over the last decade have had two syllable last names. The only one that hasn't is Ben Roethlisberger. Make of that what you will!
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Get On With It
It's the middle of September and I've not posted for two months, despite all my favourite games starting. OK, I went on holiday for a couple of weeks but this is pathetic.
So let's jump in straight away with some headlines.
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Angels for winning the American League West. I've made a stunning 16p profit on that for a £2 bet on B*tfair. Well done me.
Not doing so well is my pick for the National League West, the Arizona Diamondbacks who are now 4.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, I had bets on the two Chicago clubs, who are both leading their respective divisions although the Cubs eight game lead over the Brewers is a little more comfortable than the slim lead the White Sox have over the Twins.
All the football seasons are now underway and I shall be nipping down to Ashton Gate in about an hour's time for the game against Birmingham City. We're fifth, they're second, we've not lost at home and they've not won away...so it's a big game. Don't want to make any predictions, so I won't. Well, maybe a little one. It won't finish scoreless. I could lay that outcome on B*tfair, but knowing my luck...
College Football has been running since the end of August and thanks to B*tfair I can download my results in a handy spreadsheet format to see exactly how crap I am at predicting winners.
Starting with Week 1, Clemson to beat Alabama, Michigan to beat Utah, Pittsburgh to beat Bowling Green, Virginia Tech to beat...ah well, you get the picture and I'm sure you're tired of bad beat stories already but there's only one that can really be put down to overwhelming stupidity. In an incident comparable to backing Florida State to win the ACC last season, I pressed the wrong button and backed UTEP to beat Texas a couple of weeks ago. I'm trying to think of a suitable Association Football parallel but the only thing I can come up with is something like Chelsea playing Luton, Chelsea being given a two goal start and me still backing Luton to win. Hey, did anyone notice that Luton fails the blogger.com spellchecker?
Professional Football is approaching Week 3 and the main regular season story is that Tom Brady is out for the season*. This does not mean the Patriots have suddenly become fallible: far from it. There are ten 2-0 teams right now and they're amongst them.
The others are Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Denver, the Giants, Dallas, Green Bay, Carolina and Arizona. Including the Patriots, six of those teams made the playoffs last season - Buffalo, Denver, Carolina and Arizona didn't.
Thanks to the research by the good people at Football Outsiders (in particular the win expectancy charts published in Football Prospectus 2008), these ten teams currently have a 65.2% chance of making the playoffs, which can reach 79.5% if any of them win on Sunday. I'm pushed for time now, but as part of my selection process for my Sunday picks I'll be thinking out loud later in the week on the games the teams above are involved in.
But right now, I'm off to be a fan.
* As opposed to the main pre-season story, which was the Brett Favre saga.
So let's jump in straight away with some headlines.
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Angels for winning the American League West. I've made a stunning 16p profit on that for a £2 bet on B*tfair. Well done me.
Not doing so well is my pick for the National League West, the Arizona Diamondbacks who are now 4.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, I had bets on the two Chicago clubs, who are both leading their respective divisions although the Cubs eight game lead over the Brewers is a little more comfortable than the slim lead the White Sox have over the Twins.
All the football seasons are now underway and I shall be nipping down to Ashton Gate in about an hour's time for the game against Birmingham City. We're fifth, they're second, we've not lost at home and they've not won away...so it's a big game. Don't want to make any predictions, so I won't. Well, maybe a little one. It won't finish scoreless. I could lay that outcome on B*tfair, but knowing my luck...
College Football has been running since the end of August and thanks to B*tfair I can download my results in a handy spreadsheet format to see exactly how crap I am at predicting winners.
Starting with Week 1, Clemson to beat Alabama, Michigan to beat Utah, Pittsburgh to beat Bowling Green, Virginia Tech to beat...ah well, you get the picture and I'm sure you're tired of bad beat stories already but there's only one that can really be put down to overwhelming stupidity. In an incident comparable to backing Florida State to win the ACC last season, I pressed the wrong button and backed UTEP to beat Texas a couple of weeks ago. I'm trying to think of a suitable Association Football parallel but the only thing I can come up with is something like Chelsea playing Luton, Chelsea being given a two goal start and me still backing Luton to win. Hey, did anyone notice that Luton fails the blogger.com spellchecker?
Professional Football is approaching Week 3 and the main regular season story is that Tom Brady is out for the season*. This does not mean the Patriots have suddenly become fallible: far from it. There are ten 2-0 teams right now and they're amongst them.
The others are Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Denver, the Giants, Dallas, Green Bay, Carolina and Arizona. Including the Patriots, six of those teams made the playoffs last season - Buffalo, Denver, Carolina and Arizona didn't.
Thanks to the research by the good people at Football Outsiders (in particular the win expectancy charts published in Football Prospectus 2008), these ten teams currently have a 65.2% chance of making the playoffs, which can reach 79.5% if any of them win on Sunday. I'm pushed for time now, but as part of my selection process for my Sunday picks I'll be thinking out loud later in the week on the games the teams above are involved in.
But right now, I'm off to be a fan.
* As opposed to the main pre-season story, which was the Brett Favre saga.
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
It's Raining Because It's July
What a mess. A friend of mine is in Kephalonia, where it's 40 degrees: he sent me a photo to prove it so I sent him a photo of a puddle.
It's raining, so it's football weather. I'm officially in pre-season punting mode, the delights of some of the more arcane Nordic competitions are the out of season proving grounds for my so-called system, which at the moment is primarily concerned with bankroll building rather than anything else.
The problem at the moment is that there aren't any European leagues with reasonable sample sizes, although they're all a couple of games away. A further problem with the Russian premier is that UEFA Cup Winners Zenit St Petersburg have played fewer games than anyone else, presumably due to being involved in that competition.
However, it's proving an education. I've learned that St Patrick's Athletic of the Eircom Premier League play at the Stadium of Light in Inchicore (a Dublin suburb) and that Falkenbergs of Sweden play in yellow.
The results of baseball's All Star Game ballot have almost been finalised and I've got a few players from my fantasy roster in there.
AL pitchers:
Justin Duscherer (Oakland)
Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
Francisco Rodriguez, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders (Angels)
NL outfielders:
Geovany Soto (Cubs)
Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
Ryan Braun (Brewers)
Reserve: Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)
NL pitchers:
Danny Haren (Diamondbacks)
Aaron Cook (Rockies)
Not a bad haul considering I was in last place for quite some time.
It's raining, so it's football weather. I'm officially in pre-season punting mode, the delights of some of the more arcane Nordic competitions are the out of season proving grounds for my so-called system, which at the moment is primarily concerned with bankroll building rather than anything else.
The problem at the moment is that there aren't any European leagues with reasonable sample sizes, although they're all a couple of games away. A further problem with the Russian premier is that UEFA Cup Winners Zenit St Petersburg have played fewer games than anyone else, presumably due to being involved in that competition.
However, it's proving an education. I've learned that St Patrick's Athletic of the Eircom Premier League play at the Stadium of Light in Inchicore (a Dublin suburb) and that Falkenbergs of Sweden play in yellow.
The results of baseball's All Star Game ballot have almost been finalised and I've got a few players from my fantasy roster in there.
AL pitchers:
Justin Duscherer (Oakland)
Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
Francisco Rodriguez, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders (Angels)
NL outfielders:
Geovany Soto (Cubs)
Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
Ryan Braun (Brewers)
Reserve: Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)
NL pitchers:
Danny Haren (Diamondbacks)
Aaron Cook (Rockies)
Not a bad haul considering I was in last place for quite some time.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
May Be Injured, Might Not Play...Blah Blah Blah
David Villa of Spain is definitely out of tonight's final, whereas Michael Ballack is what would best be described as 'doubtful', according to the BBC story here:
'Chelsea midfielder Ballack suffered the injury in training on Friday and will be desperate to play, having missed out on the 2002 World Cup final because of suspension.
"On Friday he had problems with his right calf, the muscle has hardened and he couldn't possibly participate in the training, so we will have to wait and see how things develop," said Germany coach Joachim Low.
"Our medical people are working round the clock, but we have to think seriously about what's going to happen if Michael Ballack cannot play.'
So nobody should be too surprised if Ballack starts. This type of mind game is what I had in mind when I mentioned yesterday when I referred to the possibility of Spain starting the game like a rabbit in the headlights: they may not know until shortly before kick off which team Germany will field and they'll have to make the appropriate adjustments either way. I know that preparing for the other team is vital, but if you're not 100% sure about who you're going to be up against it can create confusion and uncertainty, which leads me to believe that this is a stone cold bluff by the German management.
Spain are still the favourites.
Yesterday's baseball tips were a mixed bag with Detroit and the White Sox winning close games, but the Brewers were soundly beaten by the Minnesota Twins. I need to remember not to chase streaks as this is not the first time that I've done that this season: when the Atlanta Braves were woeful away from home earlier in the season I did exactly the same thing and paid for it. I've got some idea of my picks today but I've got to check a few things out before posting them.
'Chelsea midfielder Ballack suffered the injury in training on Friday and will be desperate to play, having missed out on the 2002 World Cup final because of suspension.
"On Friday he had problems with his right calf, the muscle has hardened and he couldn't possibly participate in the training, so we will have to wait and see how things develop," said Germany coach Joachim Low.
"Our medical people are working round the clock, but we have to think seriously about what's going to happen if Michael Ballack cannot play.'
So nobody should be too surprised if Ballack starts. This type of mind game is what I had in mind when I mentioned yesterday when I referred to the possibility of Spain starting the game like a rabbit in the headlights: they may not know until shortly before kick off which team Germany will field and they'll have to make the appropriate adjustments either way. I know that preparing for the other team is vital, but if you're not 100% sure about who you're going to be up against it can create confusion and uncertainty, which leads me to believe that this is a stone cold bluff by the German management.
Spain are still the favourites.
Yesterday's baseball tips were a mixed bag with Detroit and the White Sox winning close games, but the Brewers were soundly beaten by the Minnesota Twins. I need to remember not to chase streaks as this is not the first time that I've done that this season: when the Atlanta Braves were woeful away from home earlier in the season I did exactly the same thing and paid for it. I've got some idea of my picks today but I've got to check a few things out before posting them.
Saturday, June 28, 2008
An Intriguing Final
Euro 2008 ends tomorrow night with a clash between pre-tournament favourites Germany and perennial under achievers Spain, the latter being the actual favourites with the bookies.
You might ask why a team that hasn't won a major tournament for over 40 years is favoured over one that has one of the best tournament records in the world, but the answer is simple. Spain have played some exciting football, have scored lots of goals and have a number of outstanding individuals. On the other hand, Germany have occasionally looked clueless, have already lost to Croatia and narrowly avoided making complete fools of themselves against Turkey in the semi finals.
Having said all that about the Germans, they're in the final and you cannot be absolutely sure that they won't win it - especially if the Spanish turn into the proverbial rabbits in the headlights.
Not surprisingly, I've got some action on this game. I laid Germany on Betfair at 5.1 at the beginning of the month - before the tournament even started - because I really didn't think they'd win it. The lay odds as I write this are currently 2.46.
Then I got Germany in the work sweepstake...getting past Turkey meant a guaranteed £22 which could increase to £50 if they win. It's something of a no-lose situation because I've had a small punt on Spain; talk about hedging my bets!
Madame Zaza predicts Spain. Because they're better.
City brought a new player yesterday, Gavin Williams from Ipswich. His Wikipedia entry is here, his overall stats are here and here's a goal he scored against Leeds United.
There'll probably be some more player movement over the next week but I'll report that when it happens rather than indulging in the type of idle speculation that's been occurring on certain forums.
More sporting excitement: I got an e-mail from the ever helpful Liam Doyle at Word Of Sport telling me that they were about to send me the college football previews I ordered...including the amazing Phil Steele. Can't wait!
Todays baseball picks: Detroit Tigers over Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins over Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox over Chicago Cubs. The Twins have a ten game undefeated streak, the best in baseball right now.
Back tomorrow, possibly after the Euro 2008 final.
You might ask why a team that hasn't won a major tournament for over 40 years is favoured over one that has one of the best tournament records in the world, but the answer is simple. Spain have played some exciting football, have scored lots of goals and have a number of outstanding individuals. On the other hand, Germany have occasionally looked clueless, have already lost to Croatia and narrowly avoided making complete fools of themselves against Turkey in the semi finals.
Having said all that about the Germans, they're in the final and you cannot be absolutely sure that they won't win it - especially if the Spanish turn into the proverbial rabbits in the headlights.
Not surprisingly, I've got some action on this game. I laid Germany on Betfair at 5.1 at the beginning of the month - before the tournament even started - because I really didn't think they'd win it. The lay odds as I write this are currently 2.46.
Then I got Germany in the work sweepstake...getting past Turkey meant a guaranteed £22 which could increase to £50 if they win. It's something of a no-lose situation because I've had a small punt on Spain; talk about hedging my bets!
Madame Zaza predicts Spain. Because they're better.
City brought a new player yesterday, Gavin Williams from Ipswich. His Wikipedia entry is here, his overall stats are here and here's a goal he scored against Leeds United.
There'll probably be some more player movement over the next week but I'll report that when it happens rather than indulging in the type of idle speculation that's been occurring on certain forums.
More sporting excitement: I got an e-mail from the ever helpful Liam Doyle at Word Of Sport telling me that they were about to send me the college football previews I ordered...including the amazing Phil Steele. Can't wait!
Todays baseball picks: Detroit Tigers over Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins over Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox over Chicago Cubs. The Twins have a ten game undefeated streak, the best in baseball right now.
Back tomorrow, possibly after the Euro 2008 final.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Sweet
I lost £5 on this game, but for obvious reasons I don't care. Major update to follow.
Congrats to Cov, who knocked ManYoo out of the League Cup.
Congrats to Cov, who knocked ManYoo out of the League Cup.
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
The Hand Of Fate...
OK, here's what's happening with the NCAA bets so far:
LSU 1-0, beat Mississippi State 45-0. Looking good so far...facing 1-0 Virginia Tech in Baton Rouge this Saturday. 1-0 in SEC West. As the VTech game isn't a conference game, they could actually afford to drop this one, but as this could also be some sort of National Championship preview this is unlikely.
FSU 0-1, lost 14-28 to Clemson. 0-1 in conference games. Not too clever; they take on UAB in Tallahassee this weekend. This could get ugly quickly as FSU looks to rebound; I'll know more about where they are in the ACC after they play their next conference game (against North Carolina State on 6th October).
Michigan: 0-1, lost to Appalachian State. It's a damn good job that this wasn't a conference game and it's probably a damn good job that this weekend's opponents aren't in the Big Ten either. The bad news: Oregon beat Houston last weekend and Big Blue tumbled out of just about every poll in existence. Some more good news: the game is live on NASN at 8:30pm GMT Saturday night! Whooo! Alright! Rock and Roll etc.
The NFL starts properly this weekend too. There's too much going on already. Nothing for months then everything at once. Typical.
More to come, including a possible preview of a game I turned down tickets for: England v Israel this weekend in the qualifiers for Euro 2008.
And possibly some posh boy egg chasing, although New Zealand seem to have that tied up already and the tournament hasn't even started. Who they beat in the final would seem to be the more interesting prop.
Oh yeah, City are third in the Championship. It won't last, but so what.
LSU 1-0, beat Mississippi State 45-0. Looking good so far...facing 1-0 Virginia Tech in Baton Rouge this Saturday. 1-0 in SEC West. As the VTech game isn't a conference game, they could actually afford to drop this one, but as this could also be some sort of National Championship preview this is unlikely.
FSU 0-1, lost 14-28 to Clemson. 0-1 in conference games. Not too clever; they take on UAB in Tallahassee this weekend. This could get ugly quickly as FSU looks to rebound; I'll know more about where they are in the ACC after they play their next conference game (against North Carolina State on 6th October).
Michigan: 0-1, lost to Appalachian State. It's a damn good job that this wasn't a conference game and it's probably a damn good job that this weekend's opponents aren't in the Big Ten either. The bad news: Oregon beat Houston last weekend and Big Blue tumbled out of just about every poll in existence. Some more good news: the game is live on NASN at 8:30pm GMT Saturday night! Whooo! Alright! Rock and Roll etc.
The NFL starts properly this weekend too. There's too much going on already. Nothing for months then everything at once. Typical.
More to come, including a possible preview of a game I turned down tickets for: England v Israel this weekend in the qualifiers for Euro 2008.
And possibly some posh boy egg chasing, although New Zealand seem to have that tied up already and the tournament hasn't even started. Who they beat in the final would seem to be the more interesting prop.
Oh yeah, City are third in the Championship. It won't last, but so what.
Sunday, September 02, 2007
Early analysis: The Hand Of Fate
For a few glorious hours, City were top of The Championship after beating Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 thanks to a goal from Brian Wilson.
No, not that Brian Wilson.
I celebrated by sinking a few whilst watching College Game Day followed by Virginia Tech vs East Carolina (which pitched a very unconvincing VTech team against a scrappy and competitive ECU team) and then it was over. FSU doesn't play until Monday, but a convincing win for them and the hand of fate may have the upper hand.
Coventry (our next opponents, who will probably be looking for payback for knocking them out of last season's FA Cup) beat Preston 2-1 but we're third and we're undefeated.
Meanwhile, a long way away in Ann Arbor, MI a major as in MAJOR upset in College football was occurring. They really don't get any bigger than this: Appalachian State won at Michigan.
Here's some perspective for those of you that don't know what I'm talking about. App State is from what used to be called Division 1AA, but is now known as the 'Football Championship Subdivision' which is effectively the same sort of relationship to Division 1 as The Championship has towards the Premier League. I don't know if this rebranding was influenced by the round ball game in this country but it smells funny.
There's a big difference between 1A and FCS though...basically fewer scholarships, less money and a lot less media coverage. Also you can't be promoted or relegated from Division 1 although you can move up from FCS to 1A permanently but I'm not going to bore you with how or why.
All you need to know is that Appalachian State won consecutive FCS/Div1AA titles in the last two seasons and were getting $400,000 from Michigan for scheduling the game. Oh and I bet $10 that Michigan would win the Big Ten, whereas I might have been better off giving my money to a total stranger. Having said that, one game does not make a season and one non-conference defeat to a supposedly minor team doesn't actually change their chances of winning the conference. But they're going to be embarrassed when the polls come out next week (they were ranked number 5) and their next opponents (Oregon) beat Houston 48-27.
Autumn Thunder is probably the best Michigan blog to read right now as the others are in some kind of denial phase...or still out drinking themselves stupid because it's not even 2:00am in that area yet.
More later but remember this, sports fans: although headline grabbing 'David beats Goliath' stories are part of all games, we've all suffered really awful losses at some time or another.
Like being beaten in the Play Off Final by Brighton, which makes being top of Division 2 (the highest league place for nearly three decades) even for a few hours worth all the pain, heartache and frustration seem worth it.
BTW, Bama won (they beat their FCS opponents) and ND lost (at home to Georgia Tech by 30 points), which is what I thought might happen. UNLV won as well! First away win for three years!
No, not that Brian Wilson.I celebrated by sinking a few whilst watching College Game Day followed by Virginia Tech vs East Carolina (which pitched a very unconvincing VTech team against a scrappy and competitive ECU team) and then it was over. FSU doesn't play until Monday, but a convincing win for them and the hand of fate may have the upper hand.
Coventry (our next opponents, who will probably be looking for payback for knocking them out of last season's FA Cup) beat Preston 2-1 but we're third and we're undefeated.
Meanwhile, a long way away in Ann Arbor, MI a major as in MAJOR upset in College football was occurring. They really don't get any bigger than this: Appalachian State won at Michigan.
Here's some perspective for those of you that don't know what I'm talking about. App State is from what used to be called Division 1AA, but is now known as the 'Football Championship Subdivision' which is effectively the same sort of relationship to Division 1 as The Championship has towards the Premier League. I don't know if this rebranding was influenced by the round ball game in this country but it smells funny.
There's a big difference between 1A and FCS though...basically fewer scholarships, less money and a lot less media coverage. Also you can't be promoted or relegated from Division 1 although you can move up from FCS to 1A permanently but I'm not going to bore you with how or why.
All you need to know is that Appalachian State won consecutive FCS/Div1AA titles in the last two seasons and were getting $400,000 from Michigan for scheduling the game. Oh and I bet $10 that Michigan would win the Big Ten, whereas I might have been better off giving my money to a total stranger. Having said that, one game does not make a season and one non-conference defeat to a supposedly minor team doesn't actually change their chances of winning the conference. But they're going to be embarrassed when the polls come out next week (they were ranked number 5) and their next opponents (Oregon) beat Houston 48-27.
Autumn Thunder is probably the best Michigan blog to read right now as the others are in some kind of denial phase...or still out drinking themselves stupid because it's not even 2:00am in that area yet.
More later but remember this, sports fans: although headline grabbing 'David beats Goliath' stories are part of all games, we've all suffered really awful losses at some time or another.
Like being beaten in the Play Off Final by Brighton, which makes being top of Division 2 (the highest league place for nearly three decades) even for a few hours worth all the pain, heartache and frustration seem worth it.
BTW, Bama won (they beat their FCS opponents) and ND lost (at home to Georgia Tech by 30 points), which is what I thought might happen. UNLV won as well! First away win for three years!
Saturday, September 01, 2007
Fame!
Mrs MSK has just appeared on Soccer AM having submitted this screenshot to Third Eye which she took during City's defeat by Manchester City during the week...
Sky showed the footage from the game (which is even funnier) and if I can find it I'll post it.
NB: this is the same photo that appeared on OTIB.co.uk on Tuesday night because it was Mrs MSK who took that too. I was at the game, so I can't take all the credit for it ;-)
Anyway, we've got another game on TV in about half an hour - against bottom of the table Sheffield Wednesday. If we win, we go top for our highest league position for 27 years.
LOL, I've just had a king high club flush crushed but that was OK because it was after I'd withdrawn the resources to place my bets on College Football. However, fate intervened in a strange way when I was putting the money on...I'd intended to put some money on Virginia Tech to win the ACC but my hand and the mouse conspired to put it on Florida State instead!
The hand of fate or a dumb mistake? Time will tell!
Sky showed the footage from the game (which is even funnier) and if I can find it I'll post it.
NB: this is the same photo that appeared on OTIB.co.uk on Tuesday night because it was Mrs MSK who took that too. I was at the game, so I can't take all the credit for it ;-)
Anyway, we've got another game on TV in about half an hour - against bottom of the table Sheffield Wednesday. If we win, we go top for our highest league position for 27 years.
LOL, I've just had a king high club flush crushed but that was OK because it was after I'd withdrawn the resources to place my bets on College Football. However, fate intervened in a strange way when I was putting the money on...I'd intended to put some money on Virginia Tech to win the ACC but my hand and the mouse conspired to put it on Florida State instead!
The hand of fate or a dumb mistake? Time will tell!
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Everything is back!
Whooooooooooo! I'm excited!!!
OK, here's the City situation. Two league games, two points, three goals...and yesterday morning I was in a queue for tickets for the second round Carling Cup game against Premier League leaders Manchester City.
Yes, that sentence is correct. Looking back on the posts from last season and looking at what's already happening it really is another world in the Championship. We've got England U21 v Romania U21 at the Gate tonight (more Sky money), the Man City game is on Sky (more money) as are the home games against Sheffield United and the away game at Sheffield Wednesday. Even more TV money.
Without wanting to sound triumphalist (remembering what happened last time we were at this level), this is some kind of reward for all those lack luster performances, all those rubbish games, just missing out on promotion and losing in the play offs. This is such a wonderful opportunity for everyone connected with the club.
And now...Madama Zaza presents her NFL Divisional and College Football predictions!
(First price is willhill.com, second price is bet365)
AFC East: New England Patriots (1/4 & 2/9)
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (11/4 & 12/5) or Baltimore Ravens (13/8*)
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (4/1*)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (9/4 or 2/1 ) or San Diego Chargers (4/7 or 8/13)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (6/4 or 7/4)
NFC North: Green Bay Packers (11/2*)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6/1)
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks (11/8 or 7/5) or San Francisco 49ers (2/1 or 11/4)
Some surprises there! I like the Eagles at and the 49ers prices but the Chargers' price looks silly and doesn't take into account Norv Turner taking over from Marty Schottenheimer. Signficantly, bet365 hasn't got a line for the NFC South...perhaps because nobody knows who the Falcons quarterback will be. More of that another day.
As for College, willhill.com will only take bets on the BCS Championship whereas bet365 will let you punt on individual conferences. So here's MZ's tips:
Big XII: Oklahoma (9/4) (key date: 13th October - OU v Missouri)
Pac 10: USC (2/5)
SEC: LSU (5/4)
Big X: Michigan (2/1)
ACC: Virginia Tech (11/5) or Florida State (2/1) (Nov 10th: FSU at VT)
The Whole Thing: USC
Phew. I need a lie down!
OK, here's the City situation. Two league games, two points, three goals...and yesterday morning I was in a queue for tickets for the second round Carling Cup game against Premier League leaders Manchester City.
Yes, that sentence is correct. Looking back on the posts from last season and looking at what's already happening it really is another world in the Championship. We've got England U21 v Romania U21 at the Gate tonight (more Sky money), the Man City game is on Sky (more money) as are the home games against Sheffield United and the away game at Sheffield Wednesday. Even more TV money.
Without wanting to sound triumphalist (remembering what happened last time we were at this level), this is some kind of reward for all those lack luster performances, all those rubbish games, just missing out on promotion and losing in the play offs. This is such a wonderful opportunity for everyone connected with the club.
And now...Madama Zaza presents her NFL Divisional and College Football predictions!
(First price is willhill.com, second price is bet365)
AFC East: New England Patriots (1/4 & 2/9)
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers (11/4 & 12/5) or Baltimore Ravens (13/8*)
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars (4/1*)
AFC West: Denver Broncos (9/4 or 2/1 ) or San Diego Chargers (4/7 or 8/13)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (6/4 or 7/4)
NFC North: Green Bay Packers (11/2*)
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6/1)
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks (11/8 or 7/5) or San Francisco 49ers (2/1 or 11/4)
Some surprises there! I like the Eagles at and the 49ers prices but the Chargers' price looks silly and doesn't take into account Norv Turner taking over from Marty Schottenheimer. Signficantly, bet365 hasn't got a line for the NFC South...perhaps because nobody knows who the Falcons quarterback will be. More of that another day.
As for College, willhill.com will only take bets on the BCS Championship whereas bet365 will let you punt on individual conferences. So here's MZ's tips:
Big XII: Oklahoma (9/4) (key date: 13th October - OU v Missouri)
Pac 10: USC (2/5)
SEC: LSU (5/4)
Big X: Michigan (2/1)
ACC: Virginia Tech (11/5) or Florida State (2/1) (Nov 10th: FSU at VT)
The Whole Thing: USC
Phew. I need a lie down!
Monday, July 09, 2007
Hail To The RedCoats
The RedCoats made the playoffs in the EFL after a 7-5 seaon, here's the report:London
Deep.
7-3 to Lexington with not even five minutes gone.
Actually, I will share them with you. Here's a link to Dave Scharf's book. They're all in there and I thoroughly recommend it.
I am not quite sure what to do with my dollar yet, although it has invoked the 'if you win, you need to at least make a deposit' rule.
Saturday, July 07, 2007
Freerolls and other thoughts
Without giving anything away, I've been making some on line poker observations recently.
I had the most success at at small stakes pot limit tables. That shouldn't come as a complete shock. I also won some cash at a new player free roll.
Worst: the William Hill free rolls. The game speed is glacial and the rewards are so low as to be not worth the effort. I've been scraping into the top 30% of players by doing extremely little and to be honest there have been a couple of times when I've invoked the mercy rule and bet wildly on hands that aren't worth it just to finish the game.
Seems to me that free rolls generally are a bit of a crap shoot...errr...I hope you see what I mean there. I'm thinking of doing an experiment to see how far I can get with auto fold/muck switched on, although to be fair to those players who enjoy participating in them it's probably better if I don't play free rolls at all. To paraphrase a football manager whose name escapes me, you get nowt for coming 489th.
Bit of an update: I had another incredibly small scale success in a $1 Buy In Bet365 No Limit Tournament. I placed 40th of 434 and won a massive $5.04, but it was the most exhilarating £2.50 I've ever won. I went all in a couple of times when I was about to crash out, won the biggest pot in my short online poker history ($13.2k) and generally had a whale of a time, including a 20 minute dinner break when the Chinese takeaway arrived. More than made up for the moaning about stuff elsewhere.
Something I would strongly recommend: try to keep accurate stats of how you do in any session you play even if it's play money. I've been doing this with my sessions and to be honest I've made a pretty poor job of it - to the extent that I'm going to junk what I've already done. I might even stop recording my progress in free rolls as I'm obviously not taking them seriously at all.
Fantasy baseball is still going well, I'm still first (I've been top since St George's Day or April 23rd if you don't know when that is) and a rather ridiculous 33% of my roster have been voted to appear for their respective leagues in the annual All Star game. Here are two blokes from my fantasy team that haven't been:
Matt Holliday OF Colorado Rockies
Kelvim Escobar SP Los Angeles Angels
Basically, Holliday is playing for an average team in the less spectacular National League. All his key stats are better than a lot of the players from the American League but it's probably because he doesn't play for one of the glamour teams that he's not been selected by the fickle American public. If he keeps this up, that will change.
I'm not sure why Escobar wasn't picked. He has similar stats to Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers but I think the problem might be because he's had a stint on the Disabled List and - unlike Verlander - he hasn't had a no hitter this year. All he did (on the same day as Verlander got his no hitter) was strike out 14 batters in six innings. I imagine the US press went nuts for Verlander and Escobar's achievement was lost in the shuffle.
Ah well. They're both making more money than I'll ever see, so that's probably some consolation.
I had the most success at at small stakes pot limit tables. That shouldn't come as a complete shock. I also won some cash at a new player free roll.
Worst: the William Hill free rolls. The game speed is glacial and the rewards are so low as to be not worth the effort. I've been scraping into the top 30% of players by doing extremely little and to be honest there have been a couple of times when I've invoked the mercy rule and bet wildly on hands that aren't worth it just to finish the game.
Seems to me that free rolls generally are a bit of a crap shoot...errr...I hope you see what I mean there. I'm thinking of doing an experiment to see how far I can get with auto fold/muck switched on, although to be fair to those players who enjoy participating in them it's probably better if I don't play free rolls at all. To paraphrase a football manager whose name escapes me, you get nowt for coming 489th.
Bit of an update: I had another incredibly small scale success in a $1 Buy In Bet365 No Limit Tournament. I placed 40th of 434 and won a massive $5.04, but it was the most exhilarating £2.50 I've ever won. I went all in a couple of times when I was about to crash out, won the biggest pot in my short online poker history ($13.2k) and generally had a whale of a time, including a 20 minute dinner break when the Chinese takeaway arrived. More than made up for the moaning about stuff elsewhere.
Something I would strongly recommend: try to keep accurate stats of how you do in any session you play even if it's play money. I've been doing this with my sessions and to be honest I've made a pretty poor job of it - to the extent that I'm going to junk what I've already done. I might even stop recording my progress in free rolls as I'm obviously not taking them seriously at all.
Fantasy baseball is still going well, I'm still first (I've been top since St George's Day or April 23rd if you don't know when that is) and a rather ridiculous 33% of my roster have been voted to appear for their respective leagues in the annual All Star game. Here are two blokes from my fantasy team that haven't been:
Matt Holliday OF Colorado Rockies
Kelvim Escobar SP Los Angeles AngelsBasically, Holliday is playing for an average team in the less spectacular National League. All his key stats are better than a lot of the players from the American League but it's probably because he doesn't play for one of the glamour teams that he's not been selected by the fickle American public. If he keeps this up, that will change.
I'm not sure why Escobar wasn't picked. He has similar stats to Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers but I think the problem might be because he's had a stint on the Disabled List and - unlike Verlander - he hasn't had a no hitter this year. All he did (on the same day as Verlander got his no hitter) was strike out 14 batters in six innings. I imagine the US press went nuts for Verlander and Escobar's achievement was lost in the shuffle.
Ah well. They're both making more money than I'll ever see, so that's probably some consolation.
Saturday, June 23, 2007
Not quite a WSOP bracelet, but...
A $25 win on Bet365 will do, won't it?
I got to the final table of their weekly new player freeroll on Wednesday and fluked fourth spot - there really is no other way of describing it. Having sat in the guaranteed $10 spots for most of the evening I managed to be a penny pinching, cheese grating tight arse and stole fourth when the player in front of me (who had something in the region of twice my chip stack) went all in and lost.
Bingo. Or not ;-)
More to follow.
Here's one for you: according to reports coming from Barcelona this morning, Thierry Henry is off to North Eastern Spain, which now seems to be confirmed. The Arse are 1000-1 to be relegated on William Hill and talking of Arses*, I'm pretty sure this is about to happen too...
Merde. Je departerai aussi.
Oh joy. I've just realised that it's possible that I might be able to buy a Thierry Henry replica Barcelona jersey on holiday. Fantasy Football indeed.
* Third 'arse' of the day. I must be in a good mood.
I got to the final table of their weekly new player freeroll on Wednesday and fluked fourth spot - there really is no other way of describing it. Having sat in the guaranteed $10 spots for most of the evening I managed to be a penny pinching, cheese grating tight arse and stole fourth when the player in front of me (who had something in the region of twice my chip stack) went all in and lost.
Bingo. Or not ;-)
More to follow.
Here's one for you: according to reports coming from Barcelona this morning, Thierry Henry is off to North Eastern Spain, which now seems to be confirmed. The Arse are 1000-1 to be relegated on William Hill and talking of Arses*, I'm pretty sure this is about to happen too...
Merde. Je departerai aussi.Oh joy. I've just realised that it's possible that I might be able to buy a Thierry Henry replica Barcelona jersey on holiday. Fantasy Football indeed.
* Third 'arse' of the day. I must be in a good mood.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Summer's here...so it must be time for...
Poker and baseball, two of the activities I have something of an interest in.
To be honest with myself, the only reason that I've got back into them is because of a lack of anything happening on the football front. There are the usual daft transfer rumours fuelled back the inventiveness of journalists - on one level, Barcelona are supposed to be interested in Arsene Wenger and on another level, City are interested in Hibs and Northern Ireland striker Ivan Sproule.
Ivan Sproule, Ivan Sproule, Ivan, Ivan Sproule,
When gets the boule, he scores a goule...
Obviously I'll let you know if we buy The Sproulemeister, but this is not important now apart from the fact that sightings of Norn Iron replica shirts at The Gate might go up.
Fantasy baseball is going well...too well. I've been top of my Brits only league since St George's Day and currently have a 19 point lead. I'm not going to bore you with the details, but let's just say that spending far too much time and effort on scouting players is paying off. It's fun, it keeps me off the streets and out of the pub etc.
Poker is another matter though. I don't play that often (it's been a while since I played a live home game) but I like to mess about on line - I've been getting back into it recently, but only when I can afford the time.
That's actually a lesson I learned the semi hard way - I probably played cards a little too often at school when I should have been concentrating on my A-levels but hindsight is always a blessing isn't it? Looking back on several periods of my life I've always enjoyed playing cards. I'd love to be good at chess, but I don't have the application for it; draughts is fun but too much like snap...so poker it is then.
Here's what I've been up to recently. I've been blagging on freerolls as I'm too tight to part with real money (although I do play with real money when the mood takes me) and in keeping with my overall description of 'marginally profitable' I've done relatively well. For example, on Sunday I came fourth in a loyalty points freeroll at Pokerworld (admittedly not one of the bigger sites) and I had a funny but rather manic session on Monday where I played simultaneous tournaments at Pokerworld and bet365. So basically, I'm looking for low traffic sites that offer freerolls with small player bases right now. I will report back with any findings, but I finished just outside the scoring positions on Pokerworld (14th of 132) and got bored and went all in to finish off my bet365 session finishing 199th of 3587 players.
The reason why I got bored? I knew I wasn't going to be placed, it was getting late and it was my turn to make the tea.
That's pretty hardcore. Not.
Whether it's deciding on which hat to wear, raising trips on the turn or leaving the table for a comped tuna sandwich, poker is all about decisions.
To be honest with myself, the only reason that I've got back into them is because of a lack of anything happening on the football front. There are the usual daft transfer rumours fuelled back the inventiveness of journalists - on one level, Barcelona are supposed to be interested in Arsene Wenger and on another level, City are interested in Hibs and Northern Ireland striker Ivan Sproule.
Ivan Sproule, Ivan Sproule, Ivan, Ivan Sproule,When gets the boule, he scores a goule...
Obviously I'll let you know if we buy The Sproulemeister, but this is not important now apart from the fact that sightings of Norn Iron replica shirts at The Gate might go up.
Fantasy baseball is going well...too well. I've been top of my Brits only league since St George's Day and currently have a 19 point lead. I'm not going to bore you with the details, but let's just say that spending far too much time and effort on scouting players is paying off. It's fun, it keeps me off the streets and out of the pub etc.
Poker is another matter though. I don't play that often (it's been a while since I played a live home game) but I like to mess about on line - I've been getting back into it recently, but only when I can afford the time.
That's actually a lesson I learned the semi hard way - I probably played cards a little too often at school when I should have been concentrating on my A-levels but hindsight is always a blessing isn't it? Looking back on several periods of my life I've always enjoyed playing cards. I'd love to be good at chess, but I don't have the application for it; draughts is fun but too much like snap...so poker it is then.
Here's what I've been up to recently. I've been blagging on freerolls as I'm too tight to part with real money (although I do play with real money when the mood takes me) and in keeping with my overall description of 'marginally profitable' I've done relatively well. For example, on Sunday I came fourth in a loyalty points freeroll at Pokerworld (admittedly not one of the bigger sites) and I had a funny but rather manic session on Monday where I played simultaneous tournaments at Pokerworld and bet365. So basically, I'm looking for low traffic sites that offer freerolls with small player bases right now. I will report back with any findings, but I finished just outside the scoring positions on Pokerworld (14th of 132) and got bored and went all in to finish off my bet365 session finishing 199th of 3587 players.
The reason why I got bored? I knew I wasn't going to be placed, it was getting late and it was my turn to make the tea.
That's pretty hardcore. Not.
Whether it's deciding on which hat to wear, raising trips on the turn or leaving the table for a comped tuna sandwich, poker is all about decisions.Saturday, April 07, 2007
Here's the situation today...
We have six games left to play and are currently in second place, four points ahead of Nottingham Forest, who we drew with last week. There's a four point gap between Forest and Oldham, so there's an eight point gap between City and Oldham.
Scunthorpe are seven points clear at the top having beaten Yeovil yesterday.
Today we're playing Swansea, who are four points off the last play off place.
If the season finished today:
Scunthorpe - champions
City - automatic promotion
First round of the playoffs:
Blackpool v Forest
Yeovil v Oldham
(Winners to meet in the final at The New Wembley, which is now finished and open for business.)
The only games that matter today: City v Swansea and Millwall v Nottingham Forest.
Best case scenario: City win and Forest lose. Instant seven point gap with four games left.
Worst case scenario: City lose and Forest win. One point gap with four games left.
According to William Hill, City are favourites to win, but it's far less clear in SE London. The draw (12/5) looks good value, but I'm almost tempted to bet on Forest at 13/10.
There are 45 minutes to go before kick off and I am really nervous.
There'll be a big update, probably either on Sunday or Monday...
Scunthorpe are seven points clear at the top having beaten Yeovil yesterday.
Today we're playing Swansea, who are four points off the last play off place.
If the season finished today:
Scunthorpe - champions
City - automatic promotion
First round of the playoffs:
Blackpool v Forest
Yeovil v Oldham
(Winners to meet in the final at The New Wembley, which is now finished and open for business.)
The only games that matter today: City v Swansea and Millwall v Nottingham Forest.
Best case scenario: City win and Forest lose. Instant seven point gap with four games left.
Worst case scenario: City lose and Forest win. One point gap with four games left.
According to William Hill, City are favourites to win, but it's far less clear in SE London. The draw (12/5) looks good value, but I'm almost tempted to bet on Forest at 13/10.
There are 45 minutes to go before kick off and I am really nervous.
There'll be a big update, probably either on Sunday or Monday...
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
It'll be 100 years in 2009
Since City reached the Cup Final; and it's a record that won't be broken this season either. We're out: we lost on penalties to a very ordinary Middlesbrough side who will now face WBA on Saturday. We travel to Blackpool, who also got knocked this evening by Norwich.
Madame Zaza predicts: Middlesbrough won't win the FA Cup. In a bizarre Zaza-esque moment (bizazarre?) I put a couple of quid on Mark Viduka scoring the first goal tonight at 4/1: I got my stake back as he was somewhat hilariously listed as a non-runner.
Madame Zaza predicts: Middlesbrough won't win the FA Cup. In a bizarre Zaza-esque moment (bizazarre?) I put a couple of quid on Mark Viduka scoring the first goal tonight at 4/1: I got my stake back as he was somewhat hilariously listed as a non-runner.
Saturday, February 10, 2007
City Welcome Former Triple League Champions...
...Huddersfield Town.
Herbert Chapman - the Knute Rockne of English Association Football.*Here's the top of Division Three:
1. Scunthorpe P31 Pts 58
2. Oldham P30 Pts 55
3. Forest P30 Pts 53
4. City P30 Pts 52
5. Yeovil P30 Pts 51
6. Swansea P30 Pts 47
...and todays opponents:
11. Huddersfield P31 Pts 41 (six off the playoffs)
We've actually dropped six points in the last two games, both single goal defeats at home to Cheltenham Town and away to Scunthorpe United (on live TV) but nobody seems to have made the decisive move yet.
Here's the top six mini league:
Oldham P8 W4 D2 L2 F10 A5 Pts 14
Forest P8 W4 D1 L3 F6 A12 Pts 13
Scunthorpe P7 W3 D2 L2 F10 A5 Pts 11
City P7 W2 D2 L3 F5 A5 Pts 8
Yeovil P6 W2 D1 L3 F4 A6 Pts 7
Swansea P6 W0 D4 L2 F3 A7 Pts 4
Remaining Games:
Today:
Swansea v Oldham
20th February
Swansea v Scunthorpe
24th February
Yeovil v Swansea
10th March
Scunthorpe v Nottingham Forest
31st March
City v Nottingham Forest
Oldham v Yeovil
6th April
Scunthorpe v Yeovil
7th April
City v Swansea
14th April
City v Yeovil
So basically City's entire season will probably come down to three consecutive home games against opponents currently in the top six. The good news is that we've completed our away programme against them (a win, a draw and three defeats) and we have the most home games left against the other five teams.
And I'll be missing the Forest game because one of my sisters in law is getting married on March 31st - in CARDIFF - but I will be making the trip down to Brighton on 24th February courtesy of my brother in law Phil.
Here are the previews:
City v Huddersfield
City haven't won at home in the league since coming from behind to beat Tranmere 3-2 on January 13th, but to put that into some kind of context we've only had one home league game since then (last Wednesday v Cheltenham) and two cup games (Middlesbrough in the FA Cup and Brighton in the JPT). Our form in the last six homes is four wins, a draw and a defeat, nine for and six against.
The Town Terriers have won once, drawn twice and lost three times in their last six league aways, scoring three times and letting in eight. Not particularly good; Madame Zaza thinks it's a City home win - possibly by two goals - and City will take the lead!
Swansea v Oldham
A draw at 11/5 with William Hill.
I'm off down the Gate, good shooting!
* Wow...that never occured to me before, but it's a good comparison. I must investigate!
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Two out of three ain’t bad
Well, ‘Jimmy’ got 66% of his predictions correct: City drew with Orient (after having gone behind again) and Scunny drew with Port Vale, but he got Old Ham v
Old Ham won 5-0 and
Elsewhere, something mildly surprising happened: Paul LeGuen left Glasgow Rangers by mutual consent - presumably as opposed to being forced into it by a dose of Rohypnol or several pints of ‘heavy’ and a deep fried Mars Bar. Talking of the old heave ho tin tack treatment, the following NFL coaches have fallen on their swords: Denny Green (Arizona) to no-one’s surprise and Jim Mora (Atlanta) in what seems to be a joint effort by the ownership and Ron Mexico.
But the best story of Bowl Season:
Monday, January 01, 2007
Official: The Oakland Raiders are sh*t.
Let's be honest: in a Madame-Zazaesque moment I saw this coming.
If I had Photoshop on this machine, the ND navy and gold would be replaced by Raider Silver and Black, because due to a ridiculous win over the Dallas Cowboys by the Detroit Lions, the Oakland Raiders have the first pick in the NFL draft in April. Whether or not Brady Quinn is the right decision remains to be seen.
Without going into too much detail here, when Charlie Weis came to South Bend Quinn had been struggling in Tyrone Willingham's offense and despite the progress he's made since, the situation in Oakland is not conducive to anyone's confidence (or sanity), especially when he might be thrust into a situation where there may be a new head coach/offensive co-ordinator with Al Davros harping on about the good old days of the vertical passing game.
For the last time, I am your Creator! You will obey me!
Without boring anyone to tears, there is some wonderful talent on the board - as always. Now it's time for the non-playoff teams to work out who they want to take. I'll have some kind of draft preview in the weeks after the Superbowl, but here's a heretical thought: how about Adrian Peterson with first pick and give Andrew Walter a chance to develop?
The other prediction from almost a month ago - that an NFC team with a .500 record would qualify for post season - also came true, even though the New York Giants only clinched that spot with their first win for something like half the season. They beat out Carolina, St Louis and Green Bay and may have ended Brett Favre's pro career.
Right, back over here for a bit. Manyoo now have a six point lead over Chelsea (keep up at the back there) in what is annoyingly referred to as the 'EPL', although they can extend it to nine if they beat Nyurr-cassel today; Chelsea play Aston Villa tomorrow evening. Watford are already ten points away from safety at the bottom and play Full Ham today in a game that not too long ago would have been in the lower half of the league. In Division 1, Brum also have a six point lead (over Preston and Derby), but I'm hoping that Southampton do well this season because I NEVER EVER WANT TO BE STUCK AT THAT BLOODY RAILWAY STATION AGAIN.
By far and away the most exciting situation is in Division 3.
Now I've been away over the Christmas period but due to the wonders of modern technology I've been able to determine a pattern in City's last three games that I should find worrying but don't. Having to come back from a goal - or even two - down to pick up five of the nine points available is typical Bristol City. I'm sure Forest fans are saying the same thing now they've been caught and overtaken by Scunny, so let's have a gander at today's games with Jimmy Hill, who seems to be reporting from 'The World At War' studio this week.
'Tonight we'll be looking at how the Germans used a modified Schlieffen plan to outflank the French..'
'Well, there's a real four pointer at the top of Division 3 this afternoon when third placed Old Ham Athletic take on second placed Nottingham Forest at Boundary Park. Even though Old Ham have already beaten Forest in the league this season, I'm expecting a tightly contested game that will probably finish in a draw.
'Leaders Scunthorpe United travel to Port Vale - The Iron haven't conceded a goal away from home since the beginning of November*, but the Valiants home form has improved recently. I'm expecting a tightly contested game that will probably finish in a draw
'Fourth placed Bristol City visit Leyton Orient for the second time this season, having already won at Brisbane Road in the Watney Cup. Despite their impressive home form City haven't won away in the league since the end of September** so I'm expecting a tightly contested game that will probably finish in a draw. Over to Tony Gubba for thirty seconds of highlights, most of which will be of a dog urinating on a goal post.
Right, well if that's everything, I'm off for a drink, off to see my, erm, nephew at the, erm, ice-rink, yes that's it, huur. Bye.'
I'm off too, to the virtual bookies to spend some of the money the Philadelphia Eagles won for me yesterday. Jimmy might be on to something: all three are 9/4 for the draw.
Coming soon: Dead Painters I Hate.
* Oh Christ, the Recipe For Success (TM) for Division 3 football - win at home, don't let any in away. Monday 5th February on SkySports if you're interested. Watch in horror as the playoff nightmare becomes reality.
** See immediately above
If I had Photoshop on this machine, the ND navy and gold would be replaced by Raider Silver and Black, because due to a ridiculous win over the Dallas Cowboys by the Detroit Lions, the Oakland Raiders have the first pick in the NFL draft in April. Whether or not Brady Quinn is the right decision remains to be seen.Without going into too much detail here, when Charlie Weis came to South Bend Quinn had been struggling in Tyrone Willingham's offense and despite the progress he's made since, the situation in Oakland is not conducive to anyone's confidence (or sanity), especially when he might be thrust into a situation where there may be a new head coach/offensive co-ordinator with Al Davros harping on about the good old days of the vertical passing game.
For the last time, I am your Creator! You will obey me!Without boring anyone to tears, there is some wonderful talent on the board - as always. Now it's time for the non-playoff teams to work out who they want to take. I'll have some kind of draft preview in the weeks after the Superbowl, but here's a heretical thought: how about Adrian Peterson with first pick and give Andrew Walter a chance to develop?
The other prediction from almost a month ago - that an NFC team with a .500 record would qualify for post season - also came true, even though the New York Giants only clinched that spot with their first win for something like half the season. They beat out Carolina, St Louis and Green Bay and may have ended Brett Favre's pro career.
Right, back over here for a bit. Manyoo now have a six point lead over Chelsea (keep up at the back there) in what is annoyingly referred to as the 'EPL', although they can extend it to nine if they beat Nyurr-cassel today; Chelsea play Aston Villa tomorrow evening. Watford are already ten points away from safety at the bottom and play Full Ham today in a game that not too long ago would have been in the lower half of the league. In Division 1, Brum also have a six point lead (over Preston and Derby), but I'm hoping that Southampton do well this season because I NEVER EVER WANT TO BE STUCK AT THAT BLOODY RAILWAY STATION AGAIN.
By far and away the most exciting situation is in Division 3.
Now I've been away over the Christmas period but due to the wonders of modern technology I've been able to determine a pattern in City's last three games that I should find worrying but don't. Having to come back from a goal - or even two - down to pick up five of the nine points available is typical Bristol City. I'm sure Forest fans are saying the same thing now they've been caught and overtaken by Scunny, so let's have a gander at today's games with Jimmy Hill, who seems to be reporting from 'The World At War' studio this week.
'Tonight we'll be looking at how the Germans used a modified Schlieffen plan to outflank the French..''Well, there's a real four pointer at the top of Division 3 this afternoon when third placed Old Ham Athletic take on second placed Nottingham Forest at Boundary Park. Even though Old Ham have already beaten Forest in the league this season, I'm expecting a tightly contested game that will probably finish in a draw.
'Leaders Scunthorpe United travel to Port Vale - The Iron haven't conceded a goal away from home since the beginning of November*, but the Valiants home form has improved recently. I'm expecting a tightly contested game that will probably finish in a draw
'Fourth placed Bristol City visit Leyton Orient for the second time this season, having already won at Brisbane Road in the Watney Cup. Despite their impressive home form City haven't won away in the league since the end of September** so I'm expecting a tightly contested game that will probably finish in a draw. Over to Tony Gubba for thirty seconds of highlights, most of which will be of a dog urinating on a goal post.
Right, well if that's everything, I'm off for a drink, off to see my, erm, nephew at the, erm, ice-rink, yes that's it, huur. Bye.'
I'm off too, to the virtual bookies to spend some of the money the Philadelphia Eagles won for me yesterday. Jimmy might be on to something: all three are 9/4 for the draw.
Coming soon: Dead Painters I Hate.
* Oh Christ, the Recipe For Success (TM) for Division 3 football - win at home, don't let any in away. Monday 5th February on SkySports if you're interested. Watch in horror as the playoff nightmare becomes reality.
** See immediately above
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
