Get On With It

It's the middle of September and I've not posted for two months, despite all my favourite games starting. OK, I went on holiday for a couple of weeks but this is pathetic.

So let's jump in straight away with some headlines.

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Angels for winning the American League West. I've made a stunning 16p profit on that for a £2 bet on B*tfair. Well done me.

Not doing so well is my pick for the National League West, the Arizona Diamondbacks who are now 4.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, I had bets on the two Chicago clubs, who are both leading their respective divisions although the Cubs eight game lead over the Brewers is a little more comfortable than the slim lead the White Sox have over the Twins.

All the football seasons are now underway and I shall be nipping down to Ashton Gate in about an hour's time for the game against Birmingham City. We're fifth, they're second, we've not lost at home and they've not won away...so it's a big game. Don't want to make any predictions, so I won't. Well, maybe a little one. It won't finish scoreless. I could lay that outcome on B*tfair, but knowing my luck...

College Football has been running since the end of August and thanks to B*tfair I can download my results in a handy spreadsheet format to see exactly how crap I am at predicting winners.

Starting with Week 1, Clemson to beat Alabama, Michigan to beat Utah, Pittsburgh to beat Bowling Green, Virginia Tech to beat...ah well, you get the picture and I'm sure you're tired of bad beat stories already but there's only one that can really be put down to overwhelming stupidity. In an incident comparable to backing Florida State to win the ACC last season, I pressed the wrong button and backed UTEP to beat Texas a couple of weeks ago. I'm trying to think of a suitable Association Football parallel but the only thing I can come up with is something like Chelsea playing Luton, Chelsea being given a two goal start and me still backing Luton to win. Hey, did anyone notice that Luton fails the blogger.com spellchecker?

Professional Football is approaching Week 3 and the main regular season story is that Tom Brady is out for the season*. This does not mean the Patriots have suddenly become fallible: far from it. There are ten 2-0 teams right now and they're amongst them.

The others are Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Denver, the Giants, Dallas, Green Bay, Carolina and Arizona. Including the Patriots, six of those teams made the playoffs last season - Buffalo, Denver, Carolina and Arizona didn't.

Thanks to the research by the good people at Football Outsiders (in particular the win expectancy charts published in Football Prospectus 2008), these ten teams currently have a 65.2% chance of making the playoffs, which can reach 79.5% if any of them win on Sunday. I'm pushed for time now, but as part of my selection process for my Sunday picks I'll be thinking out loud later in the week on the games the teams above are involved in.

But right now, I'm off to be a fan.

* As opposed to the main pre-season story, which was the Brett Favre saga.

It's Raining Because It's July

What a mess. A friend of mine is in Kephalonia, where it's 40 degrees: he sent me a photo to prove it so I sent him a photo of a puddle.

It's raining, so it's football weather. I'm officially in pre-season punting mode, the delights of some of the more arcane Nordic competitions are the out of season proving grounds for my so-called system, which at the moment is primarily concerned with bankroll building rather than anything else.

The problem at the moment is that there aren't any European leagues with reasonable sample sizes, although they're all a couple of games away. A further problem with the Russian premier is that UEFA Cup Winners Zenit St Petersburg have played fewer games than anyone else, presumably due to being involved in that competition.

However, it's proving an education. I've learned that St Patrick's Athletic of the Eircom Premier League play at the Stadium of Light in Inchicore (a Dublin suburb) and that Falkenbergs of Sweden play in yellow.

The results of baseball's All Star Game ballot have almost been finalised and I've got a few players from my fantasy roster in there.

AL pitchers:
Justin Duscherer (Oakland)
Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
Francisco Rodriguez, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders (Angels)

NL outfielders:
Geovany Soto (Cubs)
Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
Ryan Braun (Brewers)
Reserve: Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)

NL pitchers:
Danny Haren (Diamondbacks)
Aaron Cook (Rockies)

Not a bad haul considering I was in last place for quite some time.

May Be Injured, Might Not Play...Blah Blah Blah

David Villa of Spain is definitely out of tonight's final, whereas Michael Ballack is what would best be described as 'doubtful', according to the BBC story here:

'Chelsea midfielder Ballack suffered the injury in training on Friday and will be desperate to play, having missed out on the 2002 World Cup final because of suspension.

"On Friday he had problems with his right calf, the muscle has hardened and he couldn't possibly participate in the training, so we will have to wait and see how things develop," said Germany coach Joachim Low.

"Our medical people are working round the clock, but we have to think seriously about what's going to happen if Michael Ballack cannot play.'

So nobody should be too surprised if Ballack starts. This type of mind game is what I had in mind when I mentioned yesterday when I referred to the possibility of Spain starting the game like a rabbit in the headlights: they may not know until shortly before kick off which team Germany will field and they'll have to make the appropriate adjustments either way. I know that preparing for the other team is vital, but if you're not 100% sure about who you're going to be up against it can create confusion and uncertainty, which leads me to believe that this is a stone cold bluff by the German management.

Spain are still the favourites.

Yesterday's baseball tips were a mixed bag with Detroit and the White Sox winning close games, but the Brewers were soundly beaten by the Minnesota Twins. I need to remember not to chase streaks as this is not the first time that I've done that this season: when the Atlanta Braves were woeful away from home earlier in the season I did exactly the same thing and paid for it. I've got some idea of my picks today but I've got to check a few things out before posting them.

An Intriguing Final

Euro 2008 ends tomorrow night with a clash between pre-tournament favourites Germany and perennial under achievers Spain, the latter being the actual favourites with the bookies.

You might ask why a team that hasn't won a major tournament for over 40 years is favoured over one that has one of the best tournament records in the world, but the answer is simple. Spain have played some exciting football, have scored lots of goals and have a number of outstanding individuals. On the other hand, Germany have occasionally looked clueless, have already lost to Croatia and narrowly avoided making complete fools of themselves against Turkey in the semi finals.

Having said all that about the Germans, they're in the final and you cannot be absolutely sure that they won't win it - especially if the Spanish turn into the proverbial rabbits in the headlights.

Not surprisingly, I've got some action on this game. I laid Germany on Betfair at 5.1 at the beginning of the month - before the tournament even started - because I really didn't think they'd win it. The lay odds as I write this are currently 2.46.

Then I got Germany in the work sweepstake...getting past Turkey meant a guaranteed £22 which could increase to £50 if they win. It's something of a no-lose situation because I've had a small punt on Spain; talk about hedging my bets!

Madame Zaza predicts Spain. Because they're better.

City brought a new player yesterday, Gavin Williams from Ipswich. His Wikipedia entry is here, his overall stats are here and here's a goal he scored against Leeds United.



There'll probably be some more player movement over the next week but I'll report that when it happens rather than indulging in the type of idle speculation that's been occurring on certain forums.

More sporting excitement: I got an e-mail from the ever helpful Liam Doyle at Word Of Sport telling me that they were about to send me the college football previews I ordered...including the amazing Phil Steele. Can't wait!

Todays baseball picks: Detroit Tigers over Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins over Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox over Chicago Cubs. The Twins have a ten game undefeated streak, the best in baseball right now.

Back tomorrow, possibly after the Euro 2008 final.

And They're Off...

The A's split the Opening Series in Japan with the Sox, the Spectres are currently joint third.

City remain second despite losing to the Huns on Saturday. We've got Nardge Stee on Saturday, who last won down here in April 1980 during the last days of Division 1...to put it another way, when this was number one in the hit parade....



Which was replaced with this almost immediately...



Ah, those were the days.

Not much change in the top six apart from Plymouth have made their way back into it. There's a four point gap between them and WBA, but then four clubs immediately behind Gargoyle who could still make the playoffs.

T6H2H as follows:

WBA P9 W5 D2 L2 F19 A10 Pts 17
City P9 W3 D4 L2 F9 A10 Pts 13
Stoke P9 W2 D6 L2 F11 A9 Pts 12
Plymouth P10 W3 D3 L4 F13 A16 Pts 12
Hull P9 W2 D3 L4 F9 A12 Pts 9
Watford P8 W1 D4 L3 F3 A7 Pts 7

Remaining games:

Hull v Watford (this Saturday)
WBA v Watford (12th April)
Stoke v Bristol City (19th April)

Hull v Watford looks like a draw to me, although the Tigers haven't beaten Watford at home since 1978. Hull haven't beaten any of the top six at home this season, Watford haven't beaten any of the top six away in 2007/2008. Having said that, although Hull's recent home form has been pretty impressive, they've only played one team in the top half of the table in the last six games (Burnley). Watford have drawn five of their last six aways including games against City and Plymouth.

The top four have got a mixed bag this weekend. I'll post an in depth profile before our game on Friday or Saturday and let's assume that WBA will beat Colchester at The Hawthorns, but both Plymouth and Stoke are away, to Coventry and Sheffield Wednesday respectively.

Coventry are fearsome at home right now. Apart from being smashed 5-0 by WBA in the Cup in February the last time they lost - and conceded a goal at Highfield Road in the league - was in mid January. Plymouth's recent away record isn't too shabby but they may be up against it this time - this tends to be a series where the home team wins.

Sheffield Wednesday v Stoke has all the makings of an epic. Stoke have a one point lead over City but the Wendies are in the last relegation spot. They've lost two of their last six homes (WBA and Ipswich) whereas the Stokies have lost three of their last six aways. Wednesday haven't beaten Stoke at home this century, but two of the last three games have been draws.

While I was looking all this up, something struck me. If City go up, it may be because of some help from Coventry City. Why? Stay tuned.

This Year's Model

Barry Bonds has exactly the same birthday as me and my team was known as the Bristol Bondsmen for several years until he was shown the door by the San Francisco Giants at the end of last season...I won't go into too many details, but at one point I was going to call the team the Balco Bondsmen.

So it only seems fitting that my fantasy baseball team is renamed and after...well, minutes of deliberation...I give you The Arlen Spectres.

That's the infield done.

But lo - it's actually a triple entendre! A 6-4-3 if you will. So if Boomhauer, Hank, Dale and Bill are the players, here's the manager...

OK, a quick bit of background: Senator Arlen Spector (R, Pennsylvania) has been the most vocal critic of the Spygate Scandal that ran during the American football season. I'm not going to elaborate on Spygate because I already made my feelings known (scroll down to 'Beating Charstards') and the football gods got their revenge by letting the Giants win the Superbowl.

Of course, every sporting franchise needs some kind of evil GM (an Al Davros/Ge*rge Stoneburner type) and here's the third layer of...irony...nah...errr...'entendre'...oh I don't know...but here he is, the head of SPECTOR, Ernst Stavro Blofeld.

So there we go...my team has cartoon players, a republican senator as manager and a Bond supervillain as GM. I'm very happy with that as I try not to take this stuff seriously but this year I am a defending champion rather than trying not to finish last. Let's take a look at the pitchers who are going to help me defend my title - outfielders to follow.

Pitchers

I didn't plan my draft with as much precision as I did last season, so if anything I'm a little short on pitchers. Three starters, three closers so at least it's symmetrical.

2007 Line:

Collectively they worked under 1400 innings (good) for 61 wins, 115 saves, 800 strikeouts with a combined ERA of 3.45 and a combined WHIP of 1.21. I must admit, that looks a little short on wins right now. As for projected numbers, Baseball Prospectus sees a drop of across the board so I think I probably need another starter at some point. When we get to outfielders you'll be able to see that I've plenty of trade bait.

Starters:

CC Sabathia (Indians) - back for another year of 200+ innings!

Cole Hamels (Phillies)

Danny Haren (Diamondbacks)

Closers:

Francisco Rodriguez (Angels) - did OK with the Angels I had last year (Guerrero, Escobar, Lackey, Kendrick and Cabrera), probably a good idea there isn't a post season in my league.

Mariano Rivera (Yankees, below) - cartoon character players, republican manager, evil GM and a Yankees closer!

Joe Borowski (Indians) - here's the risky one. Loads of saves, but dreadful ERA - he was actually on my Anti Watch list last season. Looking forward to seeing some Tribe games where CC starts and Joe finishes.

More later, thank you for reading...

Freerolls and other thoughts

Without giving anything away, I've been making some on line poker observations recently.

I had the most success at at small stakes pot limit tables. That shouldn't come as a complete shock. I also won some cash at a new player free roll.

Worst: the William Hill free rolls. The game speed is glacial and the rewards are so low as to be not worth the effort. I've been scraping into the top 30% of players by doing extremely little and to be honest there have been a couple of times when I've invoked the mercy rule and bet wildly on hands that aren't worth it just to finish the game.

Seems to me that free rolls generally are a bit of a crap shoot...errr...I hope you see what I mean there. I'm thinking of doing an experiment to see how far I can get with auto fold/muck switched on, although to be fair to those players who enjoy participating in them it's probably better if I don't play free rolls at all. To paraphrase a football manager whose name escapes me, you get nowt for coming 489th.

Bit of an update: I had another incredibly small scale success in a $1 Buy In Bet365 No Limit Tournament. I placed 40th of 434 and won a massive $5.04, but it was the most exhilarating £2.50 I've ever won. I went all in a couple of times when I was about to crash out, won the biggest pot in my short online poker history ($13.2k) and generally had a whale of a time, including a 20 minute dinner break when the Chinese takeaway arrived. More than made up for the moaning about stuff elsewhere.

Something I would strongly recommend: try to keep accurate stats of how you do in any session you play even if it's play money. I've been doing this with my sessions and to be honest I've made a pretty poor job of it - to the extent that I'm going to junk what I've already done. I might even stop recording my progress in free rolls as I'm obviously not taking them seriously at all.

Fantasy baseball is still going well, I'm still first (I've been top since St George's Day or April 23rd if you don't know when that is) and a rather ridiculous 33% of my roster have been voted to appear for their respective leagues in the annual All Star game. Here are two blokes from my fantasy team that haven't been:

Matt Holliday OF Colorado Rockies

Kelvim Escobar SP Los Angeles Angels

Basically, Holliday is playing for an average team in the less spectacular National League. All his key stats are better than a lot of the players from the American League but it's probably because he doesn't play for one of the glamour teams that he's not been selected by the fickle American public. If he keeps this up, that will change.

I'm not sure why Escobar wasn't picked. He has similar stats to Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers but I think the problem might be because he's had a stint on the Disabled List and - unlike Verlander - he hasn't had a no hitter this year. All he did (on the same day as Verlander got his no hitter) was strike out 14 batters in six innings. I imagine the US press went nuts for Verlander and Escobar's achievement was lost in the shuffle.

Ah well. They're both making more money than I'll ever see, so that's probably some consolation.

Madame Zaza gets it right

There's only one automatic place left: congratulations to Scunthorpe United on winning promotion.

At one point this afternoon, it looked likely that City might only have to take two points from the last three games to join them, but Forest came back from two goals down to beat Brentford, so things haven't changed much as City beat Yeovil 2-0. The winner was a penalty from Bradley Orr that Steve Mildenhall almost saved; to say there was a lack of confidence in Orr's ability to convert it would be an understatement...the blokes in front of me turned away. It hit Mildenhall and crept underneath him.

Adriano Basso also made one of the most amazing saves I've ever seen this afternoon. More later. It was so good, time seemed to be suspended as he floated in the air after the catch.

That good.

But I digress. We're four points ahead of Forest with nine points left to play for. To put it as plainly as possible, if City win at Carlisle and Forest lose at home to Bournemouth...well, what are the chances of that happening?

If the season ended today:

Scunthorpe: champions. I think that's a given now. It doesn't matter.
City: automatic promotion.

Play offs: Oldham v Forest, Yeovil v Blackpool. You want spoiler material: Carlisle are a point off the playoffs and Blackpool are on one of those great late season surges of form (four straight wins) that take teams from mid table into the division above.

Still, our destiny is still in our hands, just the way I want it to be.

Oh yeah, we're two weeks into the baseball season in the USA: more of that to come later.