Oh dear.
I'm still spewing words at the following sites:
http://11lions.co.uk/
http://tradersixtyfour.blogspot.com/
http://buzzinchampionshipfootball.co.uk/
And another one that's coming very soon...it's fun reading the old posts, but that's all this blog is for now.
Thursday, March 03, 2011
Saturday, April 24, 2010
I Think This May Be A Record...
The first post for ten months. So much for posting more regularly: however, a major change in personal circumstances means that posts will be much more regular now.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Tomorrow arrives...four months later...
OK, I'm late. The Steelers won the Superbowl.
Anyway, I'm posting because I am now writing for 11lions.co.uk which is a blog following the fortunes of the England football team up to including the World Cup Finals in South Africa next year. I've also got another project lined up for the next Premiership season, which I'll reveal as soon as the Premiership fixtures come out.
Thanks for reading, I promise to post a little more regularly from now on.
Anyway, I'm posting because I am now writing for 11lions.co.uk which is a blog following the fortunes of the England football team up to including the World Cup Finals in South Africa next year. I've also got another project lined up for the next Premiership season, which I'll reveal as soon as the Premiership fixtures come out.
Thanks for reading, I promise to post a little more regularly from now on.
Sunday, February 01, 2009
More Stats
OK, in no particular order:
Run/Pass Ratios
Pittsburgh hasn't changed much in their run/pass split. They were a marginal passing team in the regular season (52.3%); in the post season they're a marginal running team (53.8%). Basically, the Steelers run a balanced offense - even though that offense is not one of the best in the league.
Here's the interesting bit though. During the regular season, the Cardinals were what I'd call a strong passing team: the overall split was 64.95/35.05 in favour of the pass. This changed dramatically during the postseason. Arizona has bee a marginal run first team during the post season (52%) - that's a 17% swing.
Stomps, Dominations and Mutual Opponents
Coined by the Football Outsiders, the definition of a stomp: a win by more than 14 points against an opponent with an overall losing record. A 'domination' is the same thing against an opponent with a winning record.
The Cardinals are slightly ahead here with three stomps and two dominant wins. Two of the stomps came over the 2-14 St Louis Rams (the other was over the Buffalo Bills), the dominations were over Miami in Week 2 and Carolina on the road in the playoffs. Pittsburgh has one less domination, stomping Cincinnati twice and dominating the Patriots on the road.
Not much between them in that respect, but what may be more significant is that Pittsburgh is 3-2 versus mutual opponents with wins over Washington, Dallas and New England. Arizona is 2-4 with wins over Dallas and Philadelphia. Both teams lost to the New York Giants and both beat the Cowboys, which probably says more about the Cowboys than anything else.
The Better QB Doesn't Always Win
Well, the one with better regular season rating over the last decade anyway. 40% of the last ten games were won by the player with the better rating but that's been skewed recently with three of the last five (60%) Superbowls being won by the player with the better regular season passer rating. Intriguingly, both Warner and Roethlisberger are amongst the players with better passer ratings who won Superbowls (Warner over Steve McNair in 2000 and Roethlisberger over Matt Hasselbeck in 2006), when the Patriots beat Warner's Rams in 2001, Warner's rating was much better than Tom Brady's - as indeed Brady's was when Eli Manning caused a major upset last season. Warner has a rating that's 16.8 points better than Roethlisberger's going into tonight's game - similar to that when he lost to Brady in 2001, but also similar to when he beat McNair the season before.
So if defense wins championships (and the Pittsburgh defense performs as well as the billing), the Steelers win - although they are not facing an average offense, they may actually be facing the return of the Greatest Show On Turf . Conversely, if offense wins games, the Cardinals win.
The key: Ken Whisenhunt. Three seasons as Steelers offensive co-ordinator, two seasons as Cardinals head coach. If he can prepare his defense to take care of the Pittsburgh offense, then it's an Arizona win. He''ll have some help: I counted six assistants with the Cardinals who have some recent knowledge of the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is the favourite. See you tomorrow.
Run/Pass Ratios
Pittsburgh hasn't changed much in their run/pass split. They were a marginal passing team in the regular season (52.3%); in the post season they're a marginal running team (53.8%). Basically, the Steelers run a balanced offense - even though that offense is not one of the best in the league.
Here's the interesting bit though. During the regular season, the Cardinals were what I'd call a strong passing team: the overall split was 64.95/35.05 in favour of the pass. This changed dramatically during the postseason. Arizona has bee a marginal run first team during the post season (52%) - that's a 17% swing.
Stomps, Dominations and Mutual Opponents
Coined by the Football Outsiders, the definition of a stomp: a win by more than 14 points against an opponent with an overall losing record. A 'domination' is the same thing against an opponent with a winning record.
The Cardinals are slightly ahead here with three stomps and two dominant wins. Two of the stomps came over the 2-14 St Louis Rams (the other was over the Buffalo Bills), the dominations were over Miami in Week 2 and Carolina on the road in the playoffs. Pittsburgh has one less domination, stomping Cincinnati twice and dominating the Patriots on the road.
Not much between them in that respect, but what may be more significant is that Pittsburgh is 3-2 versus mutual opponents with wins over Washington, Dallas and New England. Arizona is 2-4 with wins over Dallas and Philadelphia. Both teams lost to the New York Giants and both beat the Cowboys, which probably says more about the Cowboys than anything else.
The Better QB Doesn't Always Win
Well, the one with better regular season rating over the last decade anyway. 40% of the last ten games were won by the player with the better rating but that's been skewed recently with three of the last five (60%) Superbowls being won by the player with the better regular season passer rating. Intriguingly, both Warner and Roethlisberger are amongst the players with better passer ratings who won Superbowls (Warner over Steve McNair in 2000 and Roethlisberger over Matt Hasselbeck in 2006), when the Patriots beat Warner's Rams in 2001, Warner's rating was much better than Tom Brady's - as indeed Brady's was when Eli Manning caused a major upset last season. Warner has a rating that's 16.8 points better than Roethlisberger's going into tonight's game - similar to that when he lost to Brady in 2001, but also similar to when he beat McNair the season before.
So if defense wins championships (and the Pittsburgh defense performs as well as the billing), the Steelers win - although they are not facing an average offense, they may actually be facing the return of the Greatest Show On Turf . Conversely, if offense wins games, the Cardinals win.
The key: Ken Whisenhunt. Three seasons as Steelers offensive co-ordinator, two seasons as Cardinals head coach. If he can prepare his defense to take care of the Pittsburgh offense, then it's an Arizona win. He''ll have some help: I counted six assistants with the Cardinals who have some recent knowledge of the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is the favourite. See you tomorrow.
OMG New Post LOL
Good grief...I last posted in September.
Anyway, it's the Superbowl Edition.
Right, stats. I looked at the last four games that the Steelers and the Cardinals played and did some really basic number crunching. First thing to remember is that half of the Steelers last four games were during the regular season and they went 3-1. The Cardinals were 4-0 and their last three wins were in the play offs.
I once won a bet on first TD scorer when I decided Deion Branch would do that, so I thought I'd take a look at that first - but remember this is only over the last four games. For Pittsburgh, the stats like a Willie Parker rushing TD (30% of Pitt's scores overall, half of the Steelers rushing TDs), for the Cardinals it's actually even clearer. Larry Fitzgerald's numbers over the last four games are seven touchdowns (58% of Arizona's total TDs and a whopping 70% of the Cards receiving TDs).
Currently both Parker and Fitzgerald are about 6/1 for first score, but remember that the numbers in the paragraphs are how likely they are to score at some point during the game rather than whether they score first. The category where they're worth a punt is 'Anytime Touchdown Scorer' and at this point the odds drop to 8/11 - which is basically saying that it's highly likely that Parker and/or Fitzgerald will score at some point.
Looking at the first TD scorer for both teams over the last four games, there are some more clues. The first TDs for Arizona were all receptions and Fitzgerald had half of them (the others were snagged by Tim Hightower and Jerheme Urban), which points in the direction of a bet on Arizona's first scoring play being a pass.
There's some variance in Pittsburgh's stats. Two rushing scores for Willie Parker (no surprise there) but two receptions for scores by Santonio Holmes...who is about 8/1 for first score. Hmm. This fits my 'anything less than 14/1 in a big field isn't a bad bet' theory.
Right, on to my next pet theory number one: regular season v. post season QB ratings. Exactly two years ago I posted this: 'Here's a stat for y'all: over the last ten years, the average regular season rating for winning Superbowl QBs has been 91.8. Here are some players from 2006 that scored above that - Drew Brees, Damon Huard, Marc Bulger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb...and Peyton Manning.'
Since then, the average has dropped to 89.9 because last year's winner (Eli Manning) had the worst regular season rating (73.9) - worse than the much maligned Trent Dilfer had in 2000 (76.6). Here are this season's figures:
Kurt Warner first:
Regular season rating was 96.9,
'Last four games' rating was 114.5
Post season rating was 112.1.
Ben Roethlisberger:
Regular season rating 80.1
Last four games 85.2
Post season 90.7
Warner's regular season rating would take fourth place over the last ten years, behind Peyton Manning in 2006, Ben Roethlisberger in 2005...and Kurt Warner in 1999. In fact - despite the nine season difference - Warner is only playing at 1.4 points below his '99 level. Impressive.
Roethlisberger's rating beats Dilfer and Eli Manning; he's 18.5 points below his 2005 level. I know it's not really an indicator of how the game is going to go, but this is an alert for Steelers fans - remember the average passer rating of the victorious QB during the regular season is 89.9 and Big Ben is ten points below that. I have time (and I probably will) I'll do some numbers for the losing QB. I'm also going to post some more stuff before the game but I need to do some other stuff first.
But here's a stupid one. 90% of the winning QBs over the last decade have had two syllable last names. The only one that hasn't is Ben Roethlisberger. Make of that what you will!
Anyway, it's the Superbowl Edition.
Right, stats. I looked at the last four games that the Steelers and the Cardinals played and did some really basic number crunching. First thing to remember is that half of the Steelers last four games were during the regular season and they went 3-1. The Cardinals were 4-0 and their last three wins were in the play offs.
I once won a bet on first TD scorer when I decided Deion Branch would do that, so I thought I'd take a look at that first - but remember this is only over the last four games. For Pittsburgh, the stats like a Willie Parker rushing TD (30% of Pitt's scores overall, half of the Steelers rushing TDs), for the Cardinals it's actually even clearer. Larry Fitzgerald's numbers over the last four games are seven touchdowns (58% of Arizona's total TDs and a whopping 70% of the Cards receiving TDs).
Currently both Parker and Fitzgerald are about 6/1 for first score, but remember that the numbers in the paragraphs are how likely they are to score at some point during the game rather than whether they score first. The category where they're worth a punt is 'Anytime Touchdown Scorer' and at this point the odds drop to 8/11 - which is basically saying that it's highly likely that Parker and/or Fitzgerald will score at some point.
Looking at the first TD scorer for both teams over the last four games, there are some more clues. The first TDs for Arizona were all receptions and Fitzgerald had half of them (the others were snagged by Tim Hightower and Jerheme Urban), which points in the direction of a bet on Arizona's first scoring play being a pass.
There's some variance in Pittsburgh's stats. Two rushing scores for Willie Parker (no surprise there) but two receptions for scores by Santonio Holmes...who is about 8/1 for first score. Hmm. This fits my 'anything less than 14/1 in a big field isn't a bad bet' theory.
Right, on to my next pet theory number one: regular season v. post season QB ratings. Exactly two years ago I posted this: 'Here's a stat for y'all: over the last ten years, the average regular season rating for winning Superbowl QBs has been 91.8. Here are some players from 2006 that scored above that - Drew Brees, Damon Huard, Marc Bulger, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb...and Peyton Manning.'
Since then, the average has dropped to 89.9 because last year's winner (Eli Manning) had the worst regular season rating (73.9) - worse than the much maligned Trent Dilfer had in 2000 (76.6). Here are this season's figures:
Kurt Warner first:
Regular season rating was 96.9,
'Last four games' rating was 114.5
Post season rating was 112.1.
Ben Roethlisberger:
Regular season rating 80.1
Last four games 85.2
Post season 90.7
Warner's regular season rating would take fourth place over the last ten years, behind Peyton Manning in 2006, Ben Roethlisberger in 2005...and Kurt Warner in 1999. In fact - despite the nine season difference - Warner is only playing at 1.4 points below his '99 level. Impressive.
Roethlisberger's rating beats Dilfer and Eli Manning; he's 18.5 points below his 2005 level. I know it's not really an indicator of how the game is going to go, but this is an alert for Steelers fans - remember the average passer rating of the victorious QB during the regular season is 89.9 and Big Ben is ten points below that. I have time (and I probably will) I'll do some numbers for the losing QB. I'm also going to post some more stuff before the game but I need to do some other stuff first.
But here's a stupid one. 90% of the winning QBs over the last decade have had two syllable last names. The only one that hasn't is Ben Roethlisberger. Make of that what you will!
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Get On With It
It's the middle of September and I've not posted for two months, despite all my favourite games starting. OK, I went on holiday for a couple of weeks but this is pathetic.
So let's jump in straight away with some headlines.
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Angels for winning the American League West. I've made a stunning 16p profit on that for a £2 bet on B*tfair. Well done me.
Not doing so well is my pick for the National League West, the Arizona Diamondbacks who are now 4.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, I had bets on the two Chicago clubs, who are both leading their respective divisions although the Cubs eight game lead over the Brewers is a little more comfortable than the slim lead the White Sox have over the Twins.
All the football seasons are now underway and I shall be nipping down to Ashton Gate in about an hour's time for the game against Birmingham City. We're fifth, they're second, we've not lost at home and they've not won away...so it's a big game. Don't want to make any predictions, so I won't. Well, maybe a little one. It won't finish scoreless. I could lay that outcome on B*tfair, but knowing my luck...
College Football has been running since the end of August and thanks to B*tfair I can download my results in a handy spreadsheet format to see exactly how crap I am at predicting winners.
Starting with Week 1, Clemson to beat Alabama, Michigan to beat Utah, Pittsburgh to beat Bowling Green, Virginia Tech to beat...ah well, you get the picture and I'm sure you're tired of bad beat stories already but there's only one that can really be put down to overwhelming stupidity. In an incident comparable to backing Florida State to win the ACC last season, I pressed the wrong button and backed UTEP to beat Texas a couple of weeks ago. I'm trying to think of a suitable Association Football parallel but the only thing I can come up with is something like Chelsea playing Luton, Chelsea being given a two goal start and me still backing Luton to win. Hey, did anyone notice that Luton fails the blogger.com spellchecker?
Professional Football is approaching Week 3 and the main regular season story is that Tom Brady is out for the season*. This does not mean the Patriots have suddenly become fallible: far from it. There are ten 2-0 teams right now and they're amongst them.
The others are Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Denver, the Giants, Dallas, Green Bay, Carolina and Arizona. Including the Patriots, six of those teams made the playoffs last season - Buffalo, Denver, Carolina and Arizona didn't.
Thanks to the research by the good people at Football Outsiders (in particular the win expectancy charts published in Football Prospectus 2008), these ten teams currently have a 65.2% chance of making the playoffs, which can reach 79.5% if any of them win on Sunday. I'm pushed for time now, but as part of my selection process for my Sunday picks I'll be thinking out loud later in the week on the games the teams above are involved in.
But right now, I'm off to be a fan.
* As opposed to the main pre-season story, which was the Brett Favre saga.
So let's jump in straight away with some headlines.
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Angels for winning the American League West. I've made a stunning 16p profit on that for a £2 bet on B*tfair. Well done me.
Not doing so well is my pick for the National League West, the Arizona Diamondbacks who are now 4.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, I had bets on the two Chicago clubs, who are both leading their respective divisions although the Cubs eight game lead over the Brewers is a little more comfortable than the slim lead the White Sox have over the Twins.
All the football seasons are now underway and I shall be nipping down to Ashton Gate in about an hour's time for the game against Birmingham City. We're fifth, they're second, we've not lost at home and they've not won away...so it's a big game. Don't want to make any predictions, so I won't. Well, maybe a little one. It won't finish scoreless. I could lay that outcome on B*tfair, but knowing my luck...
College Football has been running since the end of August and thanks to B*tfair I can download my results in a handy spreadsheet format to see exactly how crap I am at predicting winners.
Starting with Week 1, Clemson to beat Alabama, Michigan to beat Utah, Pittsburgh to beat Bowling Green, Virginia Tech to beat...ah well, you get the picture and I'm sure you're tired of bad beat stories already but there's only one that can really be put down to overwhelming stupidity. In an incident comparable to backing Florida State to win the ACC last season, I pressed the wrong button and backed UTEP to beat Texas a couple of weeks ago. I'm trying to think of a suitable Association Football parallel but the only thing I can come up with is something like Chelsea playing Luton, Chelsea being given a two goal start and me still backing Luton to win. Hey, did anyone notice that Luton fails the blogger.com spellchecker?
Professional Football is approaching Week 3 and the main regular season story is that Tom Brady is out for the season*. This does not mean the Patriots have suddenly become fallible: far from it. There are ten 2-0 teams right now and they're amongst them.
The others are Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Denver, the Giants, Dallas, Green Bay, Carolina and Arizona. Including the Patriots, six of those teams made the playoffs last season - Buffalo, Denver, Carolina and Arizona didn't.
Thanks to the research by the good people at Football Outsiders (in particular the win expectancy charts published in Football Prospectus 2008), these ten teams currently have a 65.2% chance of making the playoffs, which can reach 79.5% if any of them win on Sunday. I'm pushed for time now, but as part of my selection process for my Sunday picks I'll be thinking out loud later in the week on the games the teams above are involved in.
But right now, I'm off to be a fan.
* As opposed to the main pre-season story, which was the Brett Favre saga.
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
It's Raining Because It's July
What a mess. A friend of mine is in Kephalonia, where it's 40 degrees: he sent me a photo to prove it so I sent him a photo of a puddle.
It's raining, so it's football weather. I'm officially in pre-season punting mode, the delights of some of the more arcane Nordic competitions are the out of season proving grounds for my so-called system, which at the moment is primarily concerned with bankroll building rather than anything else.
The problem at the moment is that there aren't any European leagues with reasonable sample sizes, although they're all a couple of games away. A further problem with the Russian premier is that UEFA Cup Winners Zenit St Petersburg have played fewer games than anyone else, presumably due to being involved in that competition.
However, it's proving an education. I've learned that St Patrick's Athletic of the Eircom Premier League play at the Stadium of Light in Inchicore (a Dublin suburb) and that Falkenbergs of Sweden play in yellow.
The results of baseball's All Star Game ballot have almost been finalised and I've got a few players from my fantasy roster in there.
AL pitchers:
Justin Duscherer (Oakland)
Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
Francisco Rodriguez, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders (Angels)
NL outfielders:
Geovany Soto (Cubs)
Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
Ryan Braun (Brewers)
Reserve: Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)
NL pitchers:
Danny Haren (Diamondbacks)
Aaron Cook (Rockies)
Not a bad haul considering I was in last place for quite some time.
It's raining, so it's football weather. I'm officially in pre-season punting mode, the delights of some of the more arcane Nordic competitions are the out of season proving grounds for my so-called system, which at the moment is primarily concerned with bankroll building rather than anything else.
The problem at the moment is that there aren't any European leagues with reasonable sample sizes, although they're all a couple of games away. A further problem with the Russian premier is that UEFA Cup Winners Zenit St Petersburg have played fewer games than anyone else, presumably due to being involved in that competition.
However, it's proving an education. I've learned that St Patrick's Athletic of the Eircom Premier League play at the Stadium of Light in Inchicore (a Dublin suburb) and that Falkenbergs of Sweden play in yellow.
The results of baseball's All Star Game ballot have almost been finalised and I've got a few players from my fantasy roster in there.
AL pitchers:
Justin Duscherer (Oakland)
Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
Francisco Rodriguez, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders (Angels)
NL outfielders:
Geovany Soto (Cubs)
Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
Ryan Braun (Brewers)
Reserve: Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)
NL pitchers:
Danny Haren (Diamondbacks)
Aaron Cook (Rockies)
Not a bad haul considering I was in last place for quite some time.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Congratulations To Spain
Europe has new football champions: Spain beat Germany 1-0 to win their first major championship since 1964 with a goal from Liverpool's Fernando Torres with 12 minutes left in the first half.
They thoroughly deserved it too, being by far the better team on the night.
Ballack played the entire game BTW.
They thoroughly deserved it too, being by far the better team on the night.
Ballack played the entire game BTW.
Arguably the biggest story of the weekend was the return of one of my favourite British TV super villains...but more of than another day.
May Be Injured, Might Not Play...Blah Blah Blah
David Villa of Spain is definitely out of tonight's final, whereas Michael Ballack is what would best be described as 'doubtful', according to the BBC story here:
'Chelsea midfielder Ballack suffered the injury in training on Friday and will be desperate to play, having missed out on the 2002 World Cup final because of suspension.
"On Friday he had problems with his right calf, the muscle has hardened and he couldn't possibly participate in the training, so we will have to wait and see how things develop," said Germany coach Joachim Low.
"Our medical people are working round the clock, but we have to think seriously about what's going to happen if Michael Ballack cannot play.'
So nobody should be too surprised if Ballack starts. This type of mind game is what I had in mind when I mentioned yesterday when I referred to the possibility of Spain starting the game like a rabbit in the headlights: they may not know until shortly before kick off which team Germany will field and they'll have to make the appropriate adjustments either way. I know that preparing for the other team is vital, but if you're not 100% sure about who you're going to be up against it can create confusion and uncertainty, which leads me to believe that this is a stone cold bluff by the German management.
Spain are still the favourites.
Yesterday's baseball tips were a mixed bag with Detroit and the White Sox winning close games, but the Brewers were soundly beaten by the Minnesota Twins. I need to remember not to chase streaks as this is not the first time that I've done that this season: when the Atlanta Braves were woeful away from home earlier in the season I did exactly the same thing and paid for it. I've got some idea of my picks today but I've got to check a few things out before posting them.
'Chelsea midfielder Ballack suffered the injury in training on Friday and will be desperate to play, having missed out on the 2002 World Cup final because of suspension.
"On Friday he had problems with his right calf, the muscle has hardened and he couldn't possibly participate in the training, so we will have to wait and see how things develop," said Germany coach Joachim Low.
"Our medical people are working round the clock, but we have to think seriously about what's going to happen if Michael Ballack cannot play.'
So nobody should be too surprised if Ballack starts. This type of mind game is what I had in mind when I mentioned yesterday when I referred to the possibility of Spain starting the game like a rabbit in the headlights: they may not know until shortly before kick off which team Germany will field and they'll have to make the appropriate adjustments either way. I know that preparing for the other team is vital, but if you're not 100% sure about who you're going to be up against it can create confusion and uncertainty, which leads me to believe that this is a stone cold bluff by the German management.
Spain are still the favourites.
Yesterday's baseball tips were a mixed bag with Detroit and the White Sox winning close games, but the Brewers were soundly beaten by the Minnesota Twins. I need to remember not to chase streaks as this is not the first time that I've done that this season: when the Atlanta Braves were woeful away from home earlier in the season I did exactly the same thing and paid for it. I've got some idea of my picks today but I've got to check a few things out before posting them.
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