It's Sunday!

Handle with care.

It's cold enough to keep beer in the garden.

Yesterday I did say 'if' Michigan beat OSU and I picked OSU, so it should be no surprise that OSU won by three points (42-39 - the most points since 1902, when Michigan won 86-0), which indicates that it was a lot closer than I actually felt it was. The Buckeyes twice had convincing leads and might have put the game away earlier if Troy Smith hadn't committed a couple of turnovers.

Anyone got Matt Leinart's phone number?

I can't remember which one of the ABC/ESPN commentary team (Brent Musberger, Bob Davie and Kirk Herbstreit) was raving about Smith being a first round draft pick now, but it strikes me that this is an extremely premature assessment. There's no doubting that he has the ability, but as I mentioned above, he will need work on handling pressure situations and there are accuracy and consistency issues. He was outstanding in the first half of the game, but dropped off dramatically in the second.

I'll probably comment on the National Championship Game when we know who the other team is , but for now it's worth looking closely at OSU's schedule. Michigan were 11-0 going into yesterday's game and despite losing, they scored the most points against OSU this season - which shouldn't come as a huge surprise, because since beating Penn State on September 23rd, the combined record of OSU's opponents is 42-53. Only Northern Illinois (6-5) and Iowa (6-6) had scored more than ten points against OSU this season.

One of the current favourites to meet them - USC* - has arguably had tougher opponents. They've played teams with a combined 48-40 record, which includes a 50-14 away win over Arkansas, the new champions of the SEC West. USC faces 10-1 Notre Dame next weekend, so see if you can guess what I might be writing about this week.

In other news...Cal lost to USC (23-9), Virginia Tech beat Wake Forest 27-6 and Boston College beat Maryland 38-16, which included a couple of defensive TDs from Jolonn Dunbar. Auburn won the Iron Bowl, Princeton shared the Ivy League title with Yale and Jim Beam Black Label is the real deal. Oh yeah, Rutgers lost as well.

But today is Sunday and here come the big boys. In a break with tradition that's lasted all of two months, I'm not going to bore anyone with my rubbish picks but take a look at the opposite ends of the spectrum in the NFL.

There are some big games this weekend involving teams in the 'if the play offs began today' scenario. Well, the playoffs don't actually begin until January but we may know more about who will be in them at the end of this week, because six teams will also be playing on Thanksgiving Day: so I'm going to start with the three that are currently in the best positions for post season play.

Dallas (5-4) has two home games, against the 9-0 Colts on Sunday and 2-7 The Chucky All Stars on Thursday. It's tempting to say 1-1 here, but there may be an upset waiting in the wings. Both the Cowboys and Indy are top ten offensive teams, but Dallas' defense is much better than the Colts. If Dallas DC Mike Zimmer can stop Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai, Indy might find themselves 9-1 tomorrow morning. Having said that, I wrote something similar a couple of weeks ago when Indy lost to New England - and Tony Romo isn't exactly Tom Brady.

Denver and Kansas have two games that will go a long way to deciding the destination of the AFC West crown (which won't be Oakland again). In MSK's Game Of The Week the Donkeys visit San Diego in the late game today while KC 'entertain' the Raiders; on Thursday night (well, very early on Friday on this side of the Atlantic) the Chiefs and the Broncos play each other. Even though I've got Friday off, I'll probably be too stuffed with turkey and booze to watch a game that kicks off at 1:00am over here.

There are also a number of interconference games that could provide a sneak preview of the Superbowl, but when you look at the games themselves it's doubtful. I've already mentioned Indianapolis at Dallas, but there's also Atlanta (5-4) at Baltimore (7-2), the Bears (8-1) at the Jets (5-4) and Jacksonville (5-4) at the Giants (6-3). (Note to self: a Ravens/Bears Superbowl perhaps? Or - using the 'defense wins championships' theory - possibly Jaguars/Bears?)

At the other end of the food chain, we have Buffalo (3-6) at Houston (3-6), Minnesota (4-5) at Miami (3-6), Pittsburgh (3-6) at Cleveland (3-6), Washington (3-6) at Tampa Bay (2-7) and Detroit (2-7) at Arizona (1-8). Why the Steelers have crashed and burned this year I've no idea (although there's a clue in the Arizona preview below and there's a blog here that might help) and the Buccs are 2-7 because Chucky is useless.

Chucky apparently discussing the situation in Tampa with Rupert Murdoch

I don't particularly care about most of the other teams in that list apart from Detroit for musical reasons, Cleveland for reasons I'll go into another day and Arizona, because I've been on a Southwestern Airlines plane that had the Cardinals livery on it plus it's a spectacular place and the people are nice. 'kin HOT though, but seeing as though there's a lot of desert it shouldn't be a surprise.

The Cardinals plane (left) at McCarren Airport in Las Vegas. Imagine how hot the tarmac must be.

So this week's special preview is Detroit at Arizona, sponsored by Sisyphus.

Sisyphus: a problem with red zone fumbles.

Detroit is 0-4 away from home; the Cardinals are 1-4 at home and both teams are 1-6 against the rest of the NFC. Arizona is on an eight game losing streak having not won since the first week of the season whereas the Lions have actually won two of their last four, so they can at least remember what it feels like.

However, scratch a bit further and something immediately becomes apparent. Up to and including Week 10, offensively, the Lions aren't that awful in some categories: they have average more yards per game than the Seahawks and are third in the NFC in average yards per play but they've let themselves down with penalties, fumbles and turnovers - see below for how this can ruin your season. Kudos to Jon Kitna and Roy Williams, who are in the top five in the league in passing and receiving yards respectively as well as competing with each other to see who can have the shortest hair.



Scenario: first play of the second half, the Lions are down by ten. The fumble is recovered by Marques Douglas of the 49ers; Coach Marinelli (Detroit) challenges the call and loses a time out. San Francisco gets another three points from the following FG. If you look at it again, it's likely that Kevin Jones (blue 34) didn't see Shawntae Spencer blitzing when Jones was running his check flare route.

Arizona are just plain awful when they have the ball. I won't bore you with all the stats as all you probably need to know is that Edgerrin James is averaging 2.9 yards per game and they currently jointly 'lead' the league in fumbles with the Steelers (20) although the Cardinals have lost 66% of theirs. Crikey! Some perspective here: the NFC average is 50% fumbles lost and Atlanta has the best record (28%).

Defensively both teams are dreadful. Arizona are one of five teams that are giving up over 300 yards per game (and the Jets are in there too, which doesn't bode well for them today) which is emphasised by the fact that three of their top four tacklers right now are defensive backs. The Lions have some experience of this; safeties Josh Bullocks and Terrance Holt are getting plenty of tackling practice.

I'll not only take Detroit, but I'll also give them a nice write up before Thursday, when they play Miami and face their former quarterback Joey Harrington. It could be a spectacular game.

Here's the MSK Stat of The Week: the Redskins have two interceptions for the ENTIRE SEASON. Rashean Mathis of Jacksonville already has six. No doubt Daniel Snyder is reaching for his cheque book already.

The stat it narrowly beat: the Patriots haven't visited Green Bay since 1979.

Right, I'm off. European Cup this week, so there's a strong possibility of some 'other' football getting a rare mention.

* USC = University of Southern California.