In August - like a lot of other City fans - I expected this season to be about consolidation. I thought mid table would be fine, perhaps with a cup run.
If we beat Hull today we go top of the Championship. We're currently second behind Stoke City and although I don't have a programme near me I think I'm correct in saying that we've not been out of the top five all season.
I did a head to head analysis this time last year and here's the same thing for this season. This is based on the top six playing each other:
1. WBA P7 W4 D2 L1 F16 A9 Pts 14
2. Stoke City P8 W3 D3 L2 F11 A9 Pts 12
3. Plymouth Argyle P6 W2 D2 L2 F9 A9 Pts 8
4. Charlton Athletic P7 W2 D2 L3 F9 A11 Pts 8
5. City P6 W2 D2 L2 F6 A8 Pts 8
6. Watford P6 W0 D3 L3 F4 A9 Pts 3
Top Six v Bottom 3:
1. WBA 21pts
2. Stoke 21 pts
3. City 17pts
4. Watford 16pts
5. Charlton 14pts
6. Colchester 13pts (interesting!)
7. Plymouth 12pts
8. Scunthorpe 10pts
9. Sheffield Wednesday 7pts
Comparison between the two tables seems to indicate the following:
* Watford are punching above their weight at the moment
* Colchester may be too good to go down
* WBA should win promotion
* Plymouth are erratic
Remaining games as follows:
Today: WBA v Plymouth
4th March: Charlton v City, Plymouth v Colchester, Sheffield Wednesday v WBA
11th March: City v Watford, Scunthorpe v Plymouth
15th March: City v Plymouth, Watford v Stoke
21st March: Charlton v WBA
22nd March: Plymouth v Watford
29th March: Sheffield Wednesday v Stoke, WBA v Colchester
5th April: Plymouth v Charlton
12th April: WBA v Watford, Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth
19th April: Stoke v City
26th April: Colchester v Stoke, Watford v Scunthorpe
So basically the four games after today (including Leicester next Saturday) are absolutely huge. It's interesting to note that this is a remarkably similar situation to last season and the experience City got last year may be invaluable - in some respects we're actually doing better than we did against top six teams in League 1 during 2006/2007. We've lost fewer games and have conceded fewer goals although to be fair it's also worth pointing out that we've scored fewer.
Some more interesting things about the top six head to head games...
WBA are undefeated at home, so are Stoke. Two of WBA's last three games against the current top six are at home, Stoke have only one left (yeah, City)
Plymouth, Charlton and Watford haven't won at home. Watford only have one opportunity left while Plymouth and Charlton have two.
Stoke and Watford haven't won away. Stoke's last away game against the current top six is at Watford, the Hornets still have to travel to City and WBA.
City have the tightest home defence in these games (two goals conceded), Watford have the worst (seven). WBA have scored the most home goals (nine, including four against City and Charlton), Watford and City have only scored twice at home against other top six clubs,
Watford have the tightest away defence (two goals), Charlton have the worst away defence (seven goals). WBA have scored the most goals away from home (seven), Watford have only managed two.
Most common result: 1-1, four times
Home wins: seven (biggest: WBA 4 Bristol City 1) accounting for 35%
Draws: seven (again, 35%)
Away wins: six (biggest: Watford 0, WBA 3), 30% of the games so far
No team has won both games against any opponents (yet).
So what's going to happen?
I'd love to see City go up again. Three of the top six have been in the Premier League in the last four years and the pressure is on them to get back there, not us. Plymouth have never played in the top tier and Stoke haven't been up there since 1985, five years since we departed.
One thing I've not mentioned yet is the potential impact Bristol Rovers might have on all this. Without spending any time on the full story, WBA have to travel to the Mem for an FA Cup quarter final in a couple of weeks that I fully expect West Brom to win.
So what will the prospect of an FA Cup semi final at Wembley have on their league form? The games are supposed to take place on April 5th, the day they're supposed to be away at Blackpool.
But back to the first paragraph of this section. Here are the outcomes:
* Guaranteed Championship football next season (already achieved)
* Miss out on the play offs on the last day
* Playoffs, but lose in the first round
* Playoffs, but lose at Wembley
* Automatic promotion as play off winners
* Automatic promotion as runners up
* Automatic promotion to the Premier League as Football League Champions (and I can't believe I just wrote that)
I'd like the last one best. I have absolutely no idea yet what will happen, but the romantic version is this:
I went to see the New York Giants play the Miami Dolphins last October. I was wandering around the outside of New Wembley when I saw a Peter Carol coach in the car park - for those of you that don't know, that's the company that runs coaches for City. My immediate thought:
'It's early. It's not May yet.'
So the play off final v Stoke, eight years after they beat us in the Auto Windscreens at the old stadium.
This time...WE win.
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